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September 2007

September 30, 2007

Paul Krugman on Bill O'Reilly: Pinkt vi Menschen

Pinkt vi Menschen: I’m coming late to the story of Bill O’Reilly, who was amazed at the civility in a Harlem restaurant: “I couldn’t get over the fact that there was no difference between Sylvia’s restaurant and any other restaurant in New York City. I mean, it was exactly the same, even though it’s run by blacks, primarily black patronship.”

Anyway, what it reminded me of was an often retold family story: my great-grandmother visited Coney Island and was surprised to see black families enjoying themselves at the beach. “Pinkt vi menschen”, she said – just like people.

But she was an uneducated immigrant from Ukraine, and this was circa 1930.

Hendrik Hertzberg Presents Conan the Barbarian XVIII: The Hound of Vengeance

VOTESCAM GOES SPLAT: Glad tidings from points west. It appears that the quasi-official Republican attempt to siphon off twenty or so of California's electoral votes has suddenly dried up.... The now-comatose power play was a ballot initiative that would have allocated California?s electoral vote by Congressional district.... The result would have been to hand the G.O.P. nominee an unearned Ohio-size package of electoral votes, along with, quite possibly, the presidency. The Snidely Whiplash of the scheme was a well-connected Sacramento lawyer named Thomas Hiltachk....

Here’s a simpler, though admittedly speculative, explanation for the measure’s demise: the Governator terminated it.... Schwarzenegger... "To me, what we have in place right now works. I feel like if you all of a sudden in the middle of the game start changing the rules it’s kind of odd, it almost feels like a loser’s mentality, saying I cannot win with those rules, so let me change the rules. I have not made up my mind yet in one way or the other, because I haven’t seen the details on it, but basically I would say there is something off with this whole idea."

One question remains: Why would Schwarzenegger want to shoot down a proposal that has the potential of delivering the White House to his party next year? My guess is that he isn’t losing any sleep over the probability of a G.O.P. Presidential rout, which would make him the indisputably most important Republican in America.... Anybody remember the first Republican debate, on MSNBC back in May? I’ll bet Arnold does. He was in the front row at the Reagan Library when Chris Matthews asked the ten candidates if they would support changing the Constitution ever so slightly to make naturalized citizens eligible for the presidency. The vote onstage was eight to one against... in favor of crushing the ultimate and perfectly legitimate dream of the distinguished Governor of California.

If I were Schwarzenegger, I wouldn’t lift a finger to help these bozos.

September 28, 2007

Scott Eric Kaufman: National Review Really Is a Mutual Incompetence Society

Acephalous: The folks at Phi Beta Cons are waxing anti-intellectual about Mary Collins' complaint in The Christian Science Monitor. According to Collins, her daughter has stopped reading because her school requires her to read novels with "distressing plots [and] sad, even sinister, story lines." Most interesting to Carol Iannone, however, is Collins' account of a conversation she had with some of her daughter's classmates:

The string of searing plot patterns has resulted in some very peculiar unintended consequences. Most of the students I spoke with from my daughter's middle school claimed that the readings made them feel inadequate because they never "experienced these horrible things."

"It becomes awkward," one student said, "because you're constantly made to feel spoiled or privileged."

Her co-blogger, David French, picks up the baton and—in a move calculated to prove, definitively, his nub-mindedness—promptly thwacks the first professor he sees:

I enjoyed Carol’s post highlighting how the typical college reading assignment seems designed to make students feel “spoiled or privileged.” In fact, professorial contempt for “spoiled or privileged” students is nauseatingly common. Yet this is yet another example of academic blindness. It is tough to imagine a more “privileged” person than a tenured faculty member at a major university. Six figure income. Ten month work year. Absolute job security in the absence of actual fraud or criminal behavior. No other profession in America enjoys such benefits.

That Collins and Iannone spoke of middle school reading lists is irrelevant. The point is to drub academics wherever and whenever you can; in this case, for their contempt for the "spoiled and privileged." You know that varnish spoiled, privileged children are taught to apply to their elitism in (ahem) finishing schools?

French forgot to apply it. He speaks here, openly, for the downtrodden, i.e. the spoiled, privileged children of wealth. He is nauseated by the contempt in which these spoiled, privileged children are held. That they behave in spoiled, privileged ways is irrelevant. That is their culture, see, and these postmodern multiculturalists are hypocrites for shitting on these children's unearned pretensions.

They come from a better culture—-one with money and power—-and these arrogant professors have the nerve to inform them that the world shouldn't bow to their every wish and whim? Who do these professors think they are? Did they go Andover? Groton, even? Who are they to spit upon our spoiled children?

To return to my original point—-which, to be honest, I've yet to even hint at—-Collins suggests that these children can be cheered up by reading something chipper like Huck Finn. Because once Huck and Tom fool Jim into thinking he's still enslaved, then torture him for a little while in order to satisfy Tom's love of historical romance-—well, those are an absolute hoot. Guaranteed to cheer up a sallow youth any day.

For that matter, why not have them read Connecticut Yankee? It's finale is clean, wholesome fun for children of all ages. I mean, The Boss insists that the electrocuted knights be delivered a coup de grace, when he could have left them on the field to die horribly and alone, save for the screams and rattles of their compatriots.

My point, then, is that the canon debate factors into these issues in ways we shouldn't, but do, ignore. If Twain wrote Huck Finn today, I guarantee Collins and her ilk would complain about it being taught to their children. (They do, of course, but for different reasons.)....

Isn't the second story on Collins' daughter's list Shirley Jackson's "The Lottery"? Or has somebody decided to rewrite it? POSTED BY: MIRIAM | WEDNESDAY, 26 SEPTEMBER 2007 AT 06:49 PM....

In a somewhat related matter... "I have never been called to the principal's office for pushing my (honors) students to read and write above grade level...until today. I wasn't technically reprimanded, but I was asked to engage in a 'self-critique' of my expectations for my students, which I did for all of two seconds. After school, I received a call from a parent--presumably one of the parents who had earlier contacted the school administration about my draconian methods and pie-in-the-sky expectations--who wanted to pull her kid from my class. 'It seems like there's just too much reading in your class.' Yeah, I'm the asshole." http://breakingbrains.blogspot.com/2007/08/reading-is-fundamentalkinda.html POSTED BY: DRAGON MANAGEMENT | WEDNESDAY, 26 SEPTEMBER 2007 AT 08:43 PM....

I don't think anyone's rewritten "The Lottery," but since I'm not familiar with YA literature, it's always a possibility. The other reason I held back was, well, because the mother took the story so literally, whereas it's really difficult to do that with the Jackson. In retrospect, I'm not sure Collins deserved the benefit of my doubt. DM, it's not the parents fault, or, at least not entirely. After all, college students air the same complaints, despite being out of their parents' homes. Quite simply: they don't want to read, and they'll complain to anyone who will listen: parents, principals, course coordinators, &c. Miriam, it doesn't surprise me that French and his ilk are pinning these salaries on humanities types: we're the useless ones, after all, whereas the business folk, well, they make money. Tim, quit your logical and rational whining. Don't you see how oppressed the wealthy are? Have a little heart, won't you? POSTED BY: SEK | THURSDAY, 27 SEPTEMBER 2007 AT 06:45 PM

September 27, 2007

Bill Clinton on the Republicans and Moveon

YouTube - Bill Clinton On MoveOn:

GO BIG DOG GO!

Rick Perlstein: The Best Wars of Their Lives

The Best Wars of Their Lives: Conservatism's cherished fantasy of American omnipotence has died once again, this time in the sands of Iraq, and the grieving process has begun. But conservatives mourn differently from you and me. They begin with denial, anger and bargaining, just like everyone else. And that's where they stay--forever paralyzed by a petulant refusal to acknowledge their fantasy's passing, a simple inability to process reality.

The denial: Norman Podhoretz, the neoconservative godfather and Rudy Giuliani adviser, confidently posits that Saddam Hussein had weapons of mass destruction all along--but somehow surreptitiously shipped them to Syria. The bargaining: The White House's fervent remonstrations that if we squint at the problem in just the right way--counting "sectarian violence" but not car bombs, say--civilian killings are actually declining in Iraq. The anger: How dare the liberals refuse to understand that under our new commanding general, with his brand-new "strategy" that magically wipes the slate clean of everything else that's happened during the past four years, we're actually on our way to victory?

Computers have cut-and-paste functions. So does right-wing historical memory. Eventually, the articles, op-eds, press briefings and speeches now rehearsing these fantasies about Iraq will be complemented by books, and the holes in their reasoning will be big enough to march a combat division through. The contradictions, between them and among them, will be embarrassing to any but the conservatives desperate to embrace them. But embrace them they will, just as they have embraced a recent batch of right-wing revisionist Vietnam books--titles like Unheralded Victory, The Myth of Inevitable U.S. Defeat in Vietnam, Stolen Valor and Lost Victory. Their arguments used to be limited to a rarefied coterie of disillusioned veterans and right-wing propagandists. Now they've gone mainstream, in the Republicans' desperate attempts to justify Iraq. Giuliani recently wrote in Foreign Affairs, "Then, as now, we fought a war with the wrong strategy for several years. And then, as now, we corrected course and began to show real progress.... But America then withdrew its support." Whereupon, said President Bush, veritably completing the thought in his August speech before the Veterans of Foreign Wars, "the price of America's withdrawal was paid by millions of innocent citizens whose agonies would add to our vocabulary new terms like 'boat people,' 're-education camps' and 'killing fields.'"

The revisionists' books on Iraq will achieve the same thing these specious arguments do for Vietnam: therapy and propaganda. Their readers will say, Someone has finally told the truth. And yes, those quislings on the left really did foul everything up. That's what they're saying about the two books I have before me, two of the most respectable examples of the Vietnam para-literature, both published by mainstream presses and written by historians of considerable industry. Let us read them. It will better prepare us for what we can soon expect on Iraq. It will better prepare us for when bad arguments are used to justify the next generation's wars.

Mark Moyar, a Harvard graduate and Cambridge PhD, is a course director at the Marine Corps University in Quantico, Virginia. The highest praise a figure can earn in his book Triumph Forsaken is that he has "superb military bearing." Moyar has not served in the military. His service to the fantasy of American omnipotence, instead, has been intellectual. He had originally intended to write a single-volume history of Vietnam from secondary sources. But he found these sources dominated by an arrant liberal "orthodoxy," so he decided to do all new primary spadework himself. He ended up with a project so long he had to break it in two. Triumph Forsaken is the first volume. It is heavy and thickly footnoted, and it bears the imprint of Cambridge University Press on its spine. Here is right-wing Vietnam revisionism at its most respectable.

Moyar's method is simple: Take what the "orthodoxy" says and revise it 180 degrees hard to starboard. For instance, in 1954 the insurgent Communist forces of Ho Chi Minh beat French colonial forces (whom the United States backed) at the French garrison of Dien Bien Phu. Most have discerned in France's humiliating defeat a classic example of a hubristic colonial power foolishly underestimating a nonwhite enemy. Not Moyar. He cites Communist sources--more on this move later--to argue that France barely lost.

What about the subsequent international settlement in Geneva that scheduled Vietnamese reunification elections for 1956? America canceled them, recall, because military intelligence indicated that the candidate who was our puppet, Ngo Dinh Diem, could not win. Moyar argues, more or less, that South Vietnam did elect Diem. They just did it after the Vietnamese fashion. "From the beginning of their history," he explains, "the Vietnamese people had always been very inclined to support whichever political faction appeared strongest." As 1956 approached, Diem effectuated a crackdown. Five hundred "combatants and bystanders" died, Moyar says. Ergo, "Contrary to the predictions of Western diplomats and newsmen, Diem's crushing of his opposition did not alienate the people but instead achieved the opposite result.... The real proof of the people's support for the government could be found in the establishment of well-led armed forces and administrations in the villages, and in the elimination of organized opponents."

Diem is Moyar's hero. His villains are those Western diplomats and newsmen who viewed Diem as a monster, fond of cutting off his rivals' heads. Yes, he allows, Diem employed "many of the undemocratic political methods used by other authoritarian leaders of the twentieth century, not only because they considered Western democracy incompatible with a Vietnamese culture imbued with authoritarianism and a Vietnamese populace largely ignorant of national politics, but also because democracy inhibited the implementation of drastic change and the suppression of subversion." Silly liberals don't understand: That's what it takes.

The story quickens in 1963, when, Moyar claims, American liberals--most prominently two young reporters, Neil Sheehan of UPI and David Halberstam of the New York Times, and Ambassador Henry Cabot Lodge and envoy Averell Harriman--snatched defeat from the jaws of victory. Sheehan produced an influential account of a winter battle between Vietcong guerrillas and South Vietnamese regulars for a hamlet near Saigon called Ap Bac; despite their inferior firepower, the Vietcong prevailed, their first major combat victory against South Vietnamese forces. Sheehan's dispatch was a watershed in convincing the world--and the White House--that our South Vietnamese allies were cowardly and ineffectual fighters against a valiant and resourceful enemy. Diem was said to be terrified of sending troops into combat, for fear it would weaken his hold on power. His officers were said to be so confident that American ordnance and allied numerical superiority would save their bacon that the divisional commander arrived late to the fight. His soldiers were said to have shirked their battle positions, cowering as Vietcong marksmen handily zapped the mighty American helicopters. Col. John Paul Vann, adviser to the South Vietnamese division in question, was said to have shouted, "Goddammit, you want them to get away. You're afraid to fight!"

But according to Moyar, Vann "conned" Sheehan into reporting Ap Bac as a harbinger of disaster. Moyar returns to the after-action reports to reconstruct the battle. It might seem a noble enough historiographic impulse--to those unaware, as no historian has a right to be, of how badly a cult of official optimism had already distorted Vietnam record-keeping by 1963. Moyar explicitly aligns himself with the cult, praising Gen. William Westmoreland for issuing an order demanding "the maintenance of an optimistic outlook on the part of all advisors." He would have made a fine Westmoreland subaltern. He buries in a footnote that the only other existing reconstruction of the Ap Bac episode from primary sources reaches "conclusions...closer to Sheehan's than they are to those in this account." He complains that critics who thought Ap Bac foretold bad things ignored "the enormous difficulty of attacking across wet rice paddies on foot against an entrenched enemy" and that "American advisors had not been aware of this problem before Ap Bac."

You might think that American strategists indifferent to the reality that Vietnam had rice paddies that made maneuvering difficult rather resemble American strategists indifferent to, say, the reality that Iraqi Shiites hate Iraqi Sunnis. You might consider a military historian who considers such ignorance to be mitigating a bizarre ideological special pleader. You would be right.

Several months after Ap Bac, restive Buddhist monks--bonzes--led protests against the Diem regime. When Diem's police shot them down in the streets in May, and raided their pagodas in August, American diplomats led by Lodge and Harriman conspired with South Vietnamese military brass to get rid of Diem, leading to the November 1 military coup d'état that ended with his being shot.

The bonzes had taken to the streets after Diem wouldn't let them fly their flag during rallies for Buddha's birthday on May 8, 1963. Moyar acknowledges, only to dismiss, that Diem, a Catholic, had begun enforcing a ban on flags only after Catholic celebrations with flags had occurred a few days earlier, but he seems heartily offended by the Buddhists' taking offense. In a culture where "the flying of flags was an assertion of power that had the potential to undermine the prestige of the political authorities" and would "severely reduce Diem's ability to protect himself from Communists and other subversives," he seems almost to find the subsequent massacre justifiable--though he also proceeds to argue that there were no massacres.

"What happened next has never been determined with certainty," he claims. The Pentagon Papers were quite certain and cited convincing evidence: "The Catholic deputy province chief ordered his troops to fire.... The Diem government subsequently put out a story that a Viet Cong agent had thrown a grenade into the crowd and that the victims had been crushed in a stampede. It steadfastly refused to admit responsibility even when neutral observers produced films showing government troops firing on the crowd."

The instigator was a Vietcong agent, Moyar insists. How does he know? By inference, not by evidence. He claims the monasteries were lousy with Communist infiltrators, even, perhaps, among their highest counsels. And how does he know that? The Communists said so. It is more than passing strange. On one page Moyar knows what every good right-winger knows: Communists are liars ("With characteristic exaggeration a Communist history stated that..."). On others, however--it is one of the reasons conservative reviews have found him so impressive--he uncritically accepts Communist sources as his key proof texts.

Moyar doesn't read Vietnamese. He commissioned a translator to render official North Vietnamese histories into English. Moyar was good enough to send me some of these texts upon my request. A typical passage describes a ten-day march in which "people of all ethnic groups...happily came down from their mountain homes and enthusiastically worked as coolie laborers to support the front lines." To say the least, such Communist accounts do not read like reliable history. They read like ideologically compromised history--written to get past an audience of commissars. And yet Moyar quotes them as reliable documents, freely and uncritically--when they support his own ideological claims.

His most crucial one is that Diem was Vietnam's George Washington, and that when he was ousted, the excellent prospects for defeating the Communists without American troops collapsed. Thus he quotes the reaction of the North Vietnamese Politburo to Diem's assassination: "The consequences of the 1 November coup d'état will be contrary to the calculations of the U.S. imperialists.... Diem was one of the strongest individuals resisting the people and Communism." Maybe this is a transparent window onto what they really thought, or even--as Moyar claims--a transparent window onto what was, objectively, strategically true. Or maybe, being commissars, they were toeing an ideological line--exaggerating for ideological purposes. Moyar doesn't consider the possibility. Meanwhile, he is certain that the first bonze to burn himself to death in protest over oppression by Diem was not evidence that Buddhists felt oppressed by Diem--for his Communists, being Communists, and in control of the monasteries, are also capable of the most mystical feats of deception. "According to some witnesses," he intimates darkly, "the elderly monk appeared to be drugged."

With Diem overthrown and assassinated, Moyar's story ends with the fateful American decision in the spring of 1965 to commit troops, and with our author chagrined but not unhopeful--not least because, after a string of ineffectual warlords forever falling into the trap of listening to American advisers demanding democratic reforms, two generals worthy of Diem's thuggish legacy, Nguyen Cao Ky and Nguyen Van Thieu, acceded to the civilian leadership of South Vietnam. "Ky, Thieu, and the other generals began their rule," he rhapsodizes, "by holding what they termed a 'no breathing week.'" (Ky, Moyar doesn't say, had recently been asked who his heroes were. He said he had only one: Hitler.) "The week's scheduled activities included the imposition of censorship, the closing of many newspapers, and the curtailing of civil liberties." And, thank God, "by this point in time, the factionalism and political disintegration fostered by liberalization since Diem's fall had made these sorts of measures palatable to American leaders as well as to the South Vietnamese."

"Americans are a free people, who know that freedom is the right of every person and the future of every nation. The liberty we prize is not America's gift to the world. It is God's gift to humanity." President George W. Bush intoned those noble words in his State of the Union address in 2003, the overture to invading Iraq. Moyar disagrees. You might call Moyar's ideology "multiculturalist authoritarianism." You might imagine that his book would be read as an affront by those self-described democrats who peddled the war in Iraq.

Instead they have shouted his name from the rooftops. In The Weekly Standard's review, Naval War College professor Mackubin Thomas Owens called Triumph Forsaken "one of the most important books ever written on the Vietnam War." (In the same issue, neocon guru Reuel Marc Gerecht complained that "much of Washington would have gladly compromised democratic principle [in Iraq] for dictatorial strength.") The Wall Street Journal welcomed Moyar into its pages to debunk Jimmy Carter's claim that the Bush Administration's foreign policy was the worst in history. The New York Sun ran a long feature on Moyar's struggle to find a tenure-track job at a university--"an example, some say, of the difficulties faced by academics who are seen as bucking the liberal ethos on campus." A National Review blogger turned Moyar's Wall Street Journal op-ed into an occasion to endorse Triumph Forsaken's invocation of the destruction of the Indonesian left in 1965 as an object lesson for how America should have succeeded in Vietnam.

Here's how Moyar tells that story: "The nation's leader, the eccentric Sukarno, was flirting with the Communists.... Bolstered by quiet financial and moral support from the Americans, anti-Communist generals under the leadership of General Suharto ultimately took over the government. With a brutality that claimed hundreds of thousands of lives, the anti-Communists wiped out the huge Indonesian Communist Party," the PKI. "A new and long friendship between Indonesia and the United States thus took form.... This vital domino, tipping precariously, was transformed into a huge boulder standing squarely in the path of Chinese and North Vietnamese expansionism."

Here, on the other hand, is how the CIA summarized these events--in which possibly 1 million people died, most having nothing to do with Communism, some whose only crime was being ethnically Chinese: "In terms of the numbers killed the anti-PKI massacres in Indonesia rank as one of the worst mass murders of the 20th century."

It was a genocide. Moyar is wistful for it, and right-wing intellectuals have embraced him. Finally someone has told the truth.

Moyar, in short, occupies a moral black hole, and conservatives are glad to join him there. And yet, in his own confused way, Moyar is also onto something. Americans, even "neoconservative" ones, are prone to liberal sentimentalizing about the possibility of "good" wars. But war is not good. War is the attempt of one group to violently impose its will on another. Fields of blood and fire are no kind of workshop for Jeffersonian democracy. But why not be generous, strip this strange book of its moral confusions and evaluate its instrumentalist argument about good wars? Moyar claims the American-backed government in South Vietnam was doing a damned fine job of imposing its will and maintaining legitimacy among the populace until certain Americans made that impossible. On those terms--is he right?

The facts he adduces to get there, and the judgments he derives from them, are either untrustworthy or incoherent, or both. Consider Diem's consolidation of power in the period before the emergence of the Vietcong in South Vietnam in 1960. Moyar concedes that between 15,000 and 20,000 Vietnamese were detained during that period in what the government called "re-education centers." He concedes, too, that they "might be subjected to torture during interrogation," but that the fact is not relevant: Torture "was a common practice among Vietnamese of all political stripes." What's more, "No one will ever know how many people were wrongly accused...but there is strong reason to believe the number is small." Actually, there is strong reason to believe that the number was enormous. The Pentagon Papers reported that a British expert on Vietnam, P.J. Honey, who was invited by Diem to investigate the re-education centers in 1959, had surveyed the countryside and found the "consensus of opinion" of rural Vietnamese was that "the majority of the detainees are neither communist nor pro-communist."

When the Vietcong insurgency began in 1960, Saigon's response was to exile millions into fortified encampments. Moyar insists that this strategy--the Strategic Hamlet Program--was the war's finest hour: "a new strategy employing military, political, and economic resources in symphony." Here were millions of villagers marched at gunpoint by soldiers to new homes behind barbed wire, as their former villages were razed--in a Confucian society where ties to the land were so sacred that peasants had buried their ancestors' umbilical cords in the fields they had just been forced to leave behind. The reporters he reviles pointed to such deep-rooted allegiances as evidence that Saigon could not possibly win a counterinsurgency war, that the insurgency grew out of these very attempts to stop it.

But it is one of Moyar's main contentions that Vietnam was not a counterinsurgency war. He quotes another of his heroes, General Westmoreland: "Ignore the big units and you courted disaster. Failure to go after them in at least comparable strength invited defeat." Vietnam was a war of these "main force" battles, in other words, and we won all the important ones. Why did reporters say otherwise? For one thing, "patriotism was not a prerequisite in their profession."

Conservatives, in their season of failed mourning for the myth of American omnipotence, can't get enough of this historian. There is another: Lewis Sorley, a third-generation graduate of West Point and former CIA official whose 1999 book A Better War, which covers the years from 1968 to 1975, has been re-released in paperback after its arguments about Vietnam ended up contributing to military doctrine in Iraq.

Sorley's plot is even simpler than Moyar's: Everything was going atrociously in Vietnam until a new general, Creighton Abrams, became the new commander in June 1968, with a nifty new way of war. And by 1970, Sorley proclaims, "the war was won." Westmoreland, the previous commander of US forces, had defined victory via attrition: "to inflict on the enemy more casualties than they could tolerate, thereby forcing them to abandon the effort to subjugate South Vietnam." What came to be known as Abrams's "strategic somersault" was aimed at creating an atmosphere of security for Vietnamese civilians, winning their hearts and minds. Westmoreland's addiction to reckless search-and-destroy missions was replaced with a "one war" approach integrating "military and civilian approaches to an unprecedented degree."

It was also, Sorley asserts, a more humane approach to the war. "Compassion for the Vietnamese was something Abrams felt strongly and could express eloquently," he insists. The doctrine was known as "clear and hold," and Sorley's account of it allegedly inspired the November 30, 2005, White House document "National Strategy for Victory in Iraq" and its doctrine of "clear, hold, and build"--which, in turn, is the foundation for the Republican argument that nothing that happened before the installation of General Petraeus should count in evaluating our adventure in Iraq.

Sorley's claim that the war effort became more successful because it became more sensitive is so surpassingly strange he can't sustain it. Here he is approvingly quoting an American military briefer on the air assaults launched by the United States to check North Vietnam's massive 1972 Easter Offensive: "If ther're any lights burning in Hanoi tonight, they'll be candlepower." He boasts that this particular aerial campaign "ruined North Vietnam's economy, paralyzed its transportation system" and "reduced imports by 80 percent." He describes Col. George Patton, son of the great general, as one of the commanders who "took seriously Abrams' message" of winning hearts and minds. And yet this was an officer, as Seymour Hersh reported in the book My Lai 4, who sent out a Christmas card in 1968 in which the message "From Colonel and Mrs. Patton II--Peace on Earth" accompanied a color photograph of a stack of corpses, and who was famous for saying, "I do like to see arms and legs fly."

In December 2005 in the Boston Globe, Hanoi-based journalist Matthew Steinglass interviewed experts in an outstanding position to evaluate Sorley's claims about "clear and hold." Steinglass talked to David Elliot, who interviewed 400 Vietcong defectors during the Vietnam War for the Rand Corporation (and later wrote The Vietnamese War: Revolution and Social Change in the Mekong Delta, 1930-1975). Elliot found Sorley's claims absurd: "Only the 'clear' part was a success." What was the "clear" part? "Indiscriminate bombing and artillery shelling which led to rural depopulation"--with some villages hit by more than 300 mortar shells a day. Another one of Steinglass's interviewees was the chief Communist strategist, Gen. Le Ngoc Hien, who has been openly critical of the Communist side's mistakes. He finds Sorley's claim that the war effort became more successful because it became more sensitive "completely wrong."

Sorley is not much of a historian. He did not base his arguments on a canvass of a representative sample of relevant sources but instead on hundreds of hours of tape recordings of his hero General Abrams's weekly staff sessions. And the number of outright mistakes and misconceptions in the book is staggering. He offers the rise of South Vietnam's 4 million-strong People's Self-Defense Forces as prima facie "evidence of both the loyalty of the population and President Thieu's confidence in their support"; you wouldn't know from A Better War that this corps was forcibly conscripted. He holds up the 1970 Senate repeal of the Gulf of Tonkin resolution as evidence of a liberal stab in the back. He is unaware, apparently, that Nixon had engineered that vote, the better to prove his point that he didn't need Congress's permission to make war. Sorley cites Melvin Laird as a contemporary authority about goings-on in Washington, unacquainted, apparently, with the fundamental fact that during his tenure as Nixon's Defense Secretary, Laird was utterly out of the loop. Sorley's Lyndon Johnson is not mercurial, and his Richard Nixon and Henry Kissinger are not liars. He thinks "the first Watergate revelations came to light" in April 1973, par for the course for a book so bereft of political context it doesn't even discuss the 1972 opening to China, let alone the way it fundamentally shattered the supposed strategic rationale for the war.

Here is a book that is massively, consistently untrustworthy. And yet in The Weekly Standard, Mackubin Thomas Owens revisited Sorley's "remarkable" and "persuasive" A Better War on the occasion of Sorley's 2004 publication of a 917-page compendium of the transcripts of Abrams's weekly briefings, finding his debunking of "conventional wisdom about Vietnam" crucial to proving defeat in Iraq was far from inevitable. (The piece was headlined "Lost Victory.") In 2004, in National Review, that same writer recalled his gratitude to Sorley for providing the "evidence I lacked" in proving his intuition that Vietnam was the right war in the right place at the right time. Then he said that Sorley helps debunk the notion that Iraq "has become unwinnable."

You have met "Mac" Owens before. He was the reviewer, in The Weekly Standard, who called Mark Moyar's Triumph Forsaken "one of the most important books ever written on the Vietnam war." And here's the remarkable thing: Out of his determination--or desperation--to stay on message, Owens overlooks fundamental contradictions between these two books. Moyar's hero is William Westmoreland. He is a hero because he rejected the idea of flexible, small, counterinsurgency patrols in favor of "using large conventional forces to search for and engage the Communists." Sorley despises Westmoreland. Indeed, A Better War was all but written to drive home this single idea: that using large conventional forces to search for and engage the Communists was what almost lost us the war. Sorley's heroes are heroes because they understand that a key to victory was to monitor and improve the political quality of the South Vietnamese government from top to bottom, the better to abet "their efforts to carry out--carry through--a social revolution." Moyar's Triumph Forsaken was all but written to excoriate such people, whose insistence on monitoring and improving the political quality of the South Vietnamese government almost lost us the war.

Triumph Forsaken and A Better War are matter and antimatter. Yet in an op-ed in the Christian Science Monitor titled "Why Bush's War Plan Could Work," Owens cites them both within a single paragraph as making fundamentally the same argument. "Military success is a necessary, if not sufficient, cause for defeating an insurgency," he wrote. "This point is illustrated by an objective analysis of the Vietnam War. As Moyar demonstrates in his remarkable new book, 'Triumph Forsaken,' the government of Ngo Dinh Diem had broken the communist insurgency in South Vietnam by 1960 by killing and capturing communist cadres in unprecedented number, leading many survivors to defect to the government's side. And in his book, 'A Better War,' Lewis Sorley shows how the US did the same in the late 1960s and 1970s."

Here is one of conservatism's first-call "experts" on military history. He seems to have brazened out the only job requirement: If a book suggests America can never lose, except when meddling liberals forsake the triumph, then that is an "objective analysis," functionally identical to all other such objective analyses. Denial and bargaining are the order of the day. Does Owens teach this at the Naval War College? Does Moyar at the Marine Corps University? I can only imagine they do. I do know that the former head of Central Command in Iraq, Gen. John Abizaid, is said to have read and heeded A Better War. Is it any wonder they can't make sense of their loss?

September 26, 2007

Scott McLemee on Zotero

Jobs, News and Views for All of Higher Education - Inside Higher Ed :: Mark of Zotero: Zotero is a tool for storing, retrieving, organizing, and annotating digital documents. It has been available for not quite a year. I started using it about six weeks ago, and am still learning some of the fine points, but feel sufficient enthusiasm about Zotero to recommend it to anyone doing research online. If very much of your work involves material from JSTOR, for example – or if you find it necessary to collect bibliographical references, or to locate Web-based publications that you expect to cite in your own work — then Zotero is worth knowing how to use. (You can install it on your computer for free; more on that in due course.)   Now, my highest qualification for testing a digital tool is, perhaps, that I have no qualifications for testing a digital tool. That is not as paradoxical as it sounds. The limits of my technological competence are very quickly reached. My command of the laptop computer consists primarily of the ability to (1) turn it on and (2) type stuff. This condition entails certain disadvantages (the mockery of nieces and nephews, for example) but it makes for a pretty good guinea pig.

And in that respect, I can report that the folks at George Mason University’s Center for History and New Media have done an exemplary job in designing Zotero. A relatively clueless person can learn to use it without exhaustive effort.

Still, it seems as if institutions that do not currently do so might want to offer tutorials on Zotero for faculty and students who may lack whatever gene makes for an intuitive grasp of software. Academic librarians are probably the best people to offer instruction. Aside from being digitally savvy, they may be the people at a university in the best position to appreciate the range of uses to which Zotero can be put.

For the absolute newbie, however, let me explain what Zotero is — or rather, what it allows you to do. I’ll also mention a couple of problems or limitations. Zotero is still under development and will doubtless become more powerful (that is, more useful) in later releases. But the version now available has numerous valuable features that far outweigh any glitches.

Suppose you go online to gather material on some aspect of a book you are writing. In the course of a few hours, you might find several promising titles in the library catalog, a few more with Amazon, a dozen useful papers via JSTOR, and three blog entries by scholars who are thinking aloud about some matter tangential to your project.

How do you keep track of all this material? In the case of the JSTOR articles, you might download them to your laptop to read later. With material available only on Web pages, you can do a “screen capture” (provided you’ve learned the command for that) but might well end up printing them out, since otherwise it is impossible to highlight or annotate the text. As for the bibliographical citations, you can open a word-processing document and copy the references, one by one, or use note-taking software to do the same thing a little more efficiently.

In any case, you will end up with a number of kinds of digital files. They will be dispersed around your laptop in various places, organized as best you can. Gathering them is one thing; keeping track of them is another. And if you have a number of lines of research running at the same time (some of them distinct, some of them overlapping) then the problem may be compounded. Unless you have an excellent memory, or a very efficient note-taking regimen, it is easy to get swamped.

What Zotero does, in short, is solve most of these problems from the start — that is, at the very moment you find a piece of material online and decide that it is worth keeping. You can organize material by subject, in whatever format. And it allows cross-referencing between the documents in ways that improve your ability to remember and use what you have unearthed.

For example, you can “grab” all the bibliographical data on a given monograph from the library catalog with a click, and save it in the same folder as any reviews of the book you’ve downloaded from JSTOR. If the author has a Web site with his recent conference papers, you can download them to the same project file just as easily.

This isn’t just bookmarking the page. You actually have the full text available and can read it offline. The ability to store and retrieve whole Web pages is especially valuable when no reliable archive of a site exists. I got a better sense of this from a conversation with Manan Ahmed, a fellow member of the group blog Cliopatria, who has been using Zotero while working on his dissertation at the University of Chicago. Articles he read from Indian newspapers online were sometimes up for only a short time, so he needed more than the URL to find them again. (He also mentions that Zotero can handle his bibliographical references better than other note-taking systems; it can store citations in Urdu or Arabic just as well as English.)

Furthermore, Zotero allows you to annotate any of the documents you hunt and gather. You can cross-reference texts from different formats — linking a catalog citation to JSTOR articles, Web publications, and so on. If a specific passage you are reading stands out as important, it is possible to mark it with the digital equivalent of a yellow highlighter. And you can also add the marginal annotations, just like with a printout — except without any limitation of space.

When the time comes to incorporate any of this material into a manuscript, Zotero allows you to export the citations, notes, and so forth into a word-processing document.

Zotero is what is called a “plug in” for the Firefox Mozilla Web browser. You can use it only with Firefox; it doesn’t work with Netscape or Internet Explorer. People who know such things tell me that Firefox is preferable to any other browser. Be that as it may, the fact that Zotero functions only with Firefox means you need to have Firefox installed first. Fortunately it, too, is free. (All the necessary links will be given at the end of this column.)

While you are online, using Firefox to look at websites, there is a Zotero button in the lower right hand corner of the browser. If something is worth adding to your files, you click the button to open the Zotero directory. This gives you the ability to download bibliographical information, webpages, digital texts, etc. and to organize them into folders you create. (If a given document might be of use to you in two different projects, it is easy to file it in two separate folders with a couple of clicks.)

Likewise, you use the Zotero button in Firefox to get access to your material when offline. Then you can read things you glanced over quickly at the library, add notes, and so forth.

I won’t try to explain the steps involved in using Zotero’s various features. Prose is hardly the best way to do so, and in any case the Zotero website offers “screencasts” (little digital movies, basically) showing how things work. The most striking thing about Zotero is how well the designers have combined simplicity, power, and efficiency — none of them qualities to be taken for granted with a digital research tool. (Here I am thinking of a certain note-taking software that cost me $200, then required printing out the 300 page user’s manual explaining the 15 steps involved in doing every damned thing.)

There is some room for improvement, however. All of the material gathered with Zotero is stored on the hard drive of whatever computer you happen to be using at the time. If you work with both a laptop and a computer at home, you can end up with two different sets of files. And of course the document you really need at a given moment will always be on the other system, per Murphy’s law.

The optimal situation would be something closer to an e-mail system. That is, users would be able to get access to their files from any computer that had Web access. Material would be stored online (that is, on a server somewhere) and be available to the user by logging in.

Aside from the increased convenience to the individual user, making Zotero a completely Web-based instrument would have other benefits. The most important — the development likely to have a significant impact on scholarship itself — would be its ability to enhance collaborative work. Using a Zotero account as a hub, a community of researchers could share references, create new databases, and so on. And the more specialized the field of research, I suppose, the more powerful the effect.

All of which is supposed to be possible with Zotero 2.0, which is on the way. The release date is unclear at this point, though improved features of the existing version are rolled out periodically.

But for now, the folders you create on your laptop are stored there — and remain unavailable elsewhere, unless you make a point to transfer them to another computer. This brings up the other serious problem. There does not seem to be a ready way to back up your Zotero files en masse. In the best case, there would be a command allowing you to export all of the material in Zotero to, say, a zip drive. Otherwise you can end up with huge masses of data, representing however many hours of exploration and annotation, and no easy way to protect it.

Perhaps it is actually possible to do so and I just can’t figure it out. But then, neither can the full-fledged member of the digerati who initiated me into Zotero. And so we both use it with a mingled sense of appreciation (this sure makes research more efficient!) and dread (what if the system crashes?)

For now, though, appreciation is by far the stronger feeling. Zotero does for research what word-processing software did for writing. After a short while, you start to wonder how anyone ever did without it.

If you don’t already have Firefox 2.0 on your computer’s desktop, you will need to download it before installing Zotero itself. Both are available here. The site also offers a great deal of information for anyone getting started with Zotero. Especially helpful are the “screencast tutorials” — the next best thing to having a live geek to ask for help.

A good initial discussion of Zotero following its release last fall appeared at the Digital History Hacks blog. Also worth a look is this article.

“While clearly Zotero has a direct audience for citation management and research,” according to another commentary, “the same infrastructure and techniques used by the system could become a general semantic Web or data framework for any other structured application.” I am going to hope that is good news and not the sort of thing that leads to cyborgs traveling backward in time to destroy us all.

Dilip Hiro: It's the Oil, Stupid

How the Bush Administration's Iraqi Oil Grab Went Awry: Greenspan's Oil Claim in Context: Here is the sentence in The Age of Turbulence, the 531-page memoir of former Federal Reserve chief Alan Greenspan, that caused so much turbulence in Washington last week: "I am saddened that it is politically inconvenient to acknowledge what everyone knows: the Iraq war is largely about oil." Honest and accurate, it had the resonance of the Bill Clinton's election campaign mantra, "It's the economy, stupid." But, finding himself the target of a White House attack -- an administration spokesman labeled his comment, "Georgetown cocktail party analysis" -- Greenspan backtracked under cover of verbose elaboration. None of this, however, made an iota of difference to the facts on the ground.

Here is a prosecutor's brief for the position that "the Iraq War is largely about oil":

The primary evidence indicating that the Bush administration coveted Iraqi oil from the start comes from two diverse but impeccably reliable sources: Paul O'Neill, the Treasury Secretary (2001-2003) under President George W. Bush; and Falah Al Jibury, a well-connected Iraqi-American oil consultant, who had acted as President Ronald Reagan's "back channel" to Iraqi President Saddam Hussein during the Iraq-Iran War of 1980-88. The secondary evidence is from the material that can be found in such publications as the New York Times and the Wall Street Journal.

According to O'Neill's memoirs, The Price of Loyalty: George W. Bush, the White House, and the Education of Paul O'Neill, written by journalist Ron Suskind and published in 2004, the top item on the agenda of the National Security Council's first meeting after Bush entered the Oval Office was Iraq. That was January 30, 2001, more than seven months before the 9/11 attacks. The next National Security Council (NSC) meeting on February 1st was devoted exclusively to Iraq.

Advocating "going after Saddam" during the January 30 meeting, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld said, according to O'Neill, "Imagine what the region would look like without Saddam and with a regime that's aligned with U.S. interests. It would change everything in the region and beyond. It would demonstrate what U.S. policy is all about." He then discussed post-Saddam Iraq -- the Kurds in the north, the oil fields, and the reconstruction of the country's economy. (Suskind, p. 85)

Among the relevant documents later sent to NSC members, including O'Neill, was one prepared by the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA). It had already mapped Iraq's oil fields and exploration areas, and listed American corporations likely to be interested in participating in Iraq's petroleum industry.

Another DIA document in the package, entitled "Foreign Suitors for Iraqi Oilfield Contracts," listed companies from 30 countries -- France, Germany, Russia, and Britain, among others -- their specialties and bidding histories. The attached maps pinpointed "super-giant oil field," "other oil field," and "earmarked for production sharing," and divided the basically undeveloped but oil-rich southwest of Iraq into nine blocks, indicating promising areas for future exploration. (Suskind., p. 96)

According to high flying, oil insider Falah Al Jibury, the Bush administration began making plans for Iraq's oil industry "within weeks" of Bush taking office in January 2001. In an interview with the BBC's Newsnight program, which aired on March 17, 2005, he referred to his participation in secret meetings in California, Washington, and the Middle East, where, among other things, he interviewed possible successors to Saddam Hussein.

By January 2003, a plan for Iraqi oil crafted by the State Department and oil majors emerged under the guidance of Amy Myers Jaffe of the James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy at Rice University. It recommended maintaining the state-owned Iraq National Oil Company, whose origins dated back to 1961 -- but open it up to foreign investment after an initial period in which U.S.-approved Iraqi managers would supervise the rehabilitation of the war-damaged oil infrastructure. The existence of this group would come to light in a report by the Wall Street Journal on March 3, 2003.

Unknown to the architects of this scheme, according to the same BBC Newsnight report, the Pentagon's planners, apparently influenced by powerful neocons in and out of the administration, had devised their own super-secret plan. It involved the sale of all Iraqi oil fields to private companies with a view to increasing output well above the quota set by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) for Iraq in order to weaken, and then destroy, OPEC.

Secondary Evidence

On October 11, 2002 the New York Times reported that the Pentagon already had plans to occupy and control Iraq's oilfields. The next day the Economist described how Americans in the know had dubbed the waterway demarcating the southern borders of Iraq and Iran "Klondike on the Shatt al Arab," while Ahmed Chalabi, head of the U.S.-funded Iraqi National Congress and a neocon favorite, had already delivered this message: "American companies will have a big shot at Iraqi oil -- if he gets to run the show."

On October 30, Oil and Gas International revealed that the Bush administration wanted a working group of 12 to 20 people to (a) recommend ways to rehabilitate the Iraqi oil industry "in order to increase oil exports to partially pay for a possible U.S. military occupation government," (b) consider Iraq's continued membership of OPEC, and (c) consider whether to honor contracts Saddam Hussein had granted to non-American oil companies.

By late October 2002, columnist Maureen Dowd of the New York Times would later reveal, Halliburton, the energy services company previously headed by Vice President Dick Cheney, had prepared a confidential 500-page document on how to handle Iraq's oil industry after an invasion and occupation of Iraq. This was, commented Dowd, "a plan [Halliburton] wrote several months before the invasion of Iraq, and before it got a no-bid contract to implement the plan (and overbill the U.S.)." She also pointed out that a Times' request for a copy of the plan evinced a distinct lack of response from the Pentagon.

In public, of course, the Bush administration built its case for an invasion of Iraq without referring to that country's oil or the fact that it had the third largest reserves of petroleum in the world. But what happened out of sight was another matter. At a secret NSC briefing for the President on February 24, 2003, entitled, "Planning for the Iraqi Petroleum Infrastructure," a State Department economist, Pamela Quanrud, told Bush that it would cost $7-8 billion to rebuild the oil infrastructure, if Saddam decided to blow up his country's oil wells, according to Washington Post reporter Bob Woodward in his 2004 book, Plan of Attack (pp. 322-323). Quanrud was evidently a member of the State Department group chaired by Amy Myers Jaffe.

When the Anglo-American troops invaded on March 20, 2003, they expected to see oil wells ablaze. Saddam Hussein proved them wrong. Being a staunch nationalist, he evidently did not want to go down in history as the man who damaged Iraq's most precious natural resource.

On entering Baghdad on April 9th, the American troops stood by as looters burned and ransacked public buildings, including government ministries -- except for the Oil Ministry, which they guarded diligently. Within the next few days, at a secret meeting in London, the Pentagon's scheme of the sale of all Iraqi oil fields got a go-ahead in principle.

The Bush administration's assertions that oil was not a prime reason for invading Iraq did not fool Iraqis though. A July 2003 poll of Baghdad residents -- who represented a quarter of the Iraqi national population -- by the London Spectator showed that while 23% believed the reason for the Anglo-American war on Iraq was "to liberate us from dictatorship," twice as many responded, "to get oil". (Cited in Dilip Hiro, Secrets and Lies: Operation "Iraqi Freedom" and After, p. 398.)

As Iraq's principal occupier, the Bush White House made no secret of its plans to quickly dismantle that country's strong public sector. When the first American proconsul, retired General Jay Garner, focused on holding local elections rather than privatizing the country's economic structure, he was promptly sacked.

Hurdles to Oil Privatization Prove Impassable

Garner's successor, L. Paul Bremer III, found himself dealing with Philip Carroll -- former Chief Executive Officer of the American operations of (Anglo-Dutch) Royal Dutch Shell in Houston -- appointed by Washington as the Iraqi oil industry's supreme boss. Carroll decided not to tinker with the industry's ownership and told Bremer so. "There was to be no privatization of Iraqi oil resources or facilities while I was involved," Carroll said in an interview with the BBC's Newsnight program on March 17, 2005.

This was, however, but a partial explanation for why Bremer excluded the oil industry when issuing Order 39 in September 2003 privatizing nearly 200 Iraqi public sector companies and opening them up to 100% foreign ownership. The Bush White House had also realized by then that denationalizing the oil industry would be a blatant violation of the Geneva Conventions which bar an occupying power from altering the fundamental structure of the occupied territory's economy.

There was, as well, the vexatious problem of sorting out the 30 major oil development contracts Saddam's regime had signed with companies based in Canada, China, France, India, Italy, Russia, Spain, and Vietnam. The key unresolved issue was whether these firms had signed contracts with the government of Saddam Hussein, which no longer existed, or with the Republic of Iraq which remained intact.

Perhaps more important was the stand taken by Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani, the senior Shiite cleric in the country and a figure whom the occupying Americans were keen not to alienate. He made no secret of his disapproval of the wholesale privatization of Iraq's major companies. As for the minerals -- oil being the most precious -- Sistani declared that they belonged to the "community," meaning the state. As a religious decree issued by a grand ayatollah, his statement carried immense weight.

Even more effective was the violent reaction of the industry's employees to the rumors of privatization. In his Newsnight interview Jibury said, "We saw an increase in the bombing of oil facilities and pipelines built on the premise that privatization is coming."

In the immediate aftermath of the invasion, much equipment was looted from pipelines, pumping stations, and other oil facilities. By August 2003, four months after American troops entered Baghdad, oil output had only inched up to 1.2 million barrels per day, about two-fifths of the pre-invasion level. The forecasts (or dreams) of American planners' that oil production would jump to 6 million barrels per day by 2010 and easily fund the occupation and reconstruction of the country, were now seen for what they were -- part of the hype disseminated privately by American neocons to sell the idea of invading Iraq to the public.

With the insurgency taking off, attacks on oil pipelines and pumping stations averaged two a week during the second half of 2003. The pipeline connecting a major northern oil field near Kirkuk -- with an export capacity of 550,000-700,000 barrels per day -- to the Turkish port of Ceyhan became inoperative. Soon, the only oil being exported was from fields in the less disturbed, predominately Shiite south of Iraq.

In September 2003, President Bush approached Congress for $2.1 billion to safeguard and rehabilitate Iraq's oil facilities. The resulting Task Force Shield project undertook to protect 340 key installations and 4,000 miles (6,400 km) of oil pipeline. It was not until the spring of 2004 that output again reached the pre-war average of 2.5 million barrels per day -- and that did not hold. Soon enough, production fell again. Iraqi refineries were, by now, producing only two-fifths of the 24 million liters of gasoline needed by the country daily, and so there were often days-long lines at service stations.

Addressing the 26th Oil and Money conference in London on September 21, 2005, Issam Chalabi, who had been an Iraqi oil minister in the late 1980s, referred to the crippling lack of security and the lack of clear laws to manage the industry, and doubted if Iraq could return to the 1979 peak of 3.5 million barrels per day before 2009, if then.

Meanwhile, the Iraqi government found itself dependent on oil revenues for 90% of its income, a record at a time when corruption in its ministries had become rampant. On January 30, 2005, Stuart W. Bowen, the special inspector general appointed by the U.S. occupation authority, reported that almost $9 billion in Iraqi oil revenue, disbursed to the ministries, had gone missing. A subsequent Congressional inspection team reported in May 2006 that Task Force Shield had failed to meet its goals due to "lack of clear management structure and poor accountability", and added that there were "indications of potential fraud" which were being reviewed by the Inspector General.

The endorsement of the new Iraqi constitution by referendum in October 2005 finally killed the prospect of full-scale oil privatization. Article 109 of that document stated clearly that hydrocarbons were "national Iraqi property". That is, oil and gas would remain in the public sector.

In March 2006, three years after the Anglo-American invasion of Iraq, the country's petroleum exports were 30% to 40% below pre-invasion levels.

Bush Pushes for Iraq's Flawed Draft Hydrocarbon Law

In February 2007, in line with the constitution, the draft hydrocarbon law the Iraqi government presented to parliament kept oil and gas in the state sector. It also stipulated recreating a single Iraqi National Oil Company that would be charged with doling out oil income to the provinces on a per-capita basis. The Bush administration latched onto that provision to hype the 43-article Iraqi bill as a key to reconciliation between Sunnis and Shiites -- since the Sunni areas of Iraq lack hydrocarbons -- and so included it (as did Congress) in its list of "benchmarks" the Iraqi government had to meet.

Overlooked by Washington was the way that particular article, after mentioning revenue-sharing, stated that a separate Federal Revenue Law would be necessary to settle the matter of distribution -- the first draft of which was only published four months later in June.

Far more than revenue sharing and reconciliation, though, what really interested the Bush White House were the mouthwatering incentives for foreign firms to invest in Iraq's hydrocarbon industry contained in the draft law. They promised to provide ample opportunities to America's Oil Majors to reap handsome profits in an oil-rich Iraq whose vast western desert had yet to be explored fully for hydrocarbons. So Bush pressured the Iraqi government to get the necessary law passed before the parliament's vacation in August -- to no avail.

The Bush administration's failure to achieve its short-term objectives does not detract from the overarching fact -- established by the copious evidence marshaled in this article -- that gaining privileged access to Iraqi oil for American companies was a primary objective of the Pentagon's invasion of Iraq.

Felix Gillette: Dan Rather’s Last Big Scoop

A few years ago, Dan Rather’s producer told The New Yorker’s Ken Auletta, “A lot of people know Dan, and nobody knows him.” Two and a half years later, not much has changed. These days, a lot of people know why Mr. Rather is doing what he is doing, and nobody knows why. The category-5 newsman continues to baffle.

At issue is Mr. Rather’s decision, announced Sept. 19, to file a lawsuit against CBS, Viacom, Les Moonves, Sumner Redstone and Andrew Heyward for their treatment of him after CBS aired a flawed report on President Bush’s National Guard duty in September 2004. In interviews since the announcement, Mr. Rather has suggested various motives. He’s talked about the importance of a free press to democracy, and, in more prosaic moments, he’s advanced the unusual complaint that CBS was paying him a full day’s salary for less than a full day’s work. But the overall portrait has been of a restless newshound chasing one more hunch. “This is a story … that has a lot of questions to it,” Mr. Rather told MSNBC on Friday morning. “And you know, we’re at the point, let’s get people under oath.”

The case might never get that far, of course. It could be tossed out in summary judgment, or Mr. Rather could be persuaded to settle with CBS, which has every incentive to avoid a public rehashing of an episode it would rather keep in its rearview mirror. But if Mr. Rather does have one more big story left in him, what might he be hoping to uncover? Through a spokesperson, Mr. Rather declined to comment. “We want to see anything that can shed light on the merits of Dan’s case,” said Rebecca Hughes Parker, one of Mr. Rather’s attorneys on the suit.

But, through conversations with some informed observers, a picture has begun to emerge:

(1) Taking It to the Top

There’s some evidence that at the time of the Memogate controversy, CBS honchos would have had particular reason to avoid alienating the White House. Viacom, the network’s parent company, had been waging a high-stakes Washington battle to overturn long-standing federal regulations that prevented one media conglomerate from owning TV stations serving more than 35 percent of the national market. The change could have been worth billions for Viacom. But after a court threw out new FCC rules that raised the limit to 45 percent, Viacom would have needed then FCC chair Michael Powell, who was appointed by President Bush, to reintroduce legislation to reverse the ruling, and increase the cap limit.

Did Mr. Redstone, Viacom’s president and CEO, ever spell out his concerns to CBS executives?

(2) Let’s Hear From the Mystery Man

Explaining the timing of his lawsuit to CNN’s Larry King, Mr. Rather said that since he was forced out, new facts had come to light—particularly about the shortcomings of the independent panel, set up by CBS in the aftermath of Memogate, and headed by former U.S. Attorney General Dick Thornburgh, and Louis Boccardi, the former head of The Associated Press.

“We now know that an investigator was hired by CBS—what I call a mystery man—who wasn’t even mentioned in the report,” said Mr. Rather.

Readers of this newspaper knew that long ago. In February 2005, The Observer’s Joe Hagan reported that CBS had hired a former FBI agent and Navy aviator by the name of Erik T. Rigler to dig into the source of the documents at issue. Mr. Hagan further uncovered evidence suggesting that Mr. Rigler’s investigation led him to believe that (a) he was close to uncovering the original source of the documents; (b) CBS was only interested in finding the source if it could be done before the presidential election; and (c) in all likelihood the content of the documents was accurate, even if the documents themselves were not authentic.

Sure enough, Mr. Rigler’s ultimate findings were eventually excluded from the panel’s report. And, to this day, he has remained mum on the subject. So: How close did he come to solving the mystery? What did he tell the CBS chieftains? Why did they shut him down?

On the larger question of the report itself, James Goodale, the former vice chairman and general counsel of The New York Times, who has been a prominent critic of the panel’s work, told NYTV that Mr. Rather was “entirely correct” to challenge what he called a “very, very bad” commission report. Mr. Goodale said he expects that “discovery will show that there were a lot of people who thought that [the 60 Minutes II episode] was a perfectly good report.”

(3) Compare and Contrast

There’s an interesting footnote at the bottom of page 31 of the Boccardi-Thornburgh report. The authors write that on December 29, 2004—roughly a week before the final version of the report was made public—a “substantially completed draft” was handed over to certain CBS honchos, including Les Moonves, the network’s president.

Why would a supposedly independent commission turn over its findings to a key player before going public?

According to the report’s authors: “The purpose of the review was to verify for the Panel that the Report contained a proper description of the standards and processes at CBS News.” Mr. Moonves has since stated that the subsequent personnel changes at CBS News were based on the findings of the report. But some onlookers have always suspected that the opposite was true: that the final report was tailored to fit the a priori personnel decisions of Mr. Moonves.

Did the December 29 draft implicate network brass more directly than the final public version, which by and large treated them with kid gloves? A side-by-side comparison would tell us.

(4) Depose the Go-Between

Linda Mason, a CBS executive in charge of interpreting the news division’s standards, acted as the liaison between CBS executives and the members of the independent panel (she was promoted after the report was released). As such, she was in perhaps the best position of anyone to witness the relationship between the panel and the CBS leadership.

(5) Get Inside the Panel

Dissecting the inner workings of the panel will always be a tricky task, in part because no court reporter was present for the interviews. The next best thing? Uncover the notes taken throughout the process by the panel’s members and its lawyers.

(6) Unearth a Copy of Katie Couric’s Contract With CBS

Go the distance, Dan. Go hard.

September 25, 2007

Rick Perlstein: Bed-Wetter Nation

Bed-wetter Nation | Campaign for America's Future: Here's a big question that I want to start addressing in upcoming posts: what is conservative rule doing to our nation's soul? How is it rewiring our hearts and minds? What kind of damage are they doing to the American character? And can we ever recover?

So: what is the American character? Hard to say, of course. But I daresay we know it when we see it. Let me put before you an illustrative example: one week in September of 1959, when, much like one week in September of 2007, American soil supported a visit by what many, if not most Americans agreed was the most evil and dangerous man on the planet.

Nikita Khrushchev disembarked from his plane at Andrews Air Force Base to a 21-gun salute and a receiving line of 63 officials and bureaucrats, ending with President Eisenhower. He rode 13 miles with Ike in an open limousine to his guest quarters across from the White House. Then he met for two hours with Ike and his foreign policy team. Then came a white-tie state dinner. (The Soviets then put one on at the embassy for Ike.) He joshed with the CIA chief about pooling their intelligence data, since it probably all came from the same people—then was ushered upstairs to the East Wing for a leisurely gander at the Eisenhowers' family quarters. Visited the Agriculture Department's 12,000 acre research station ("If you didn't give a turkey a passport you couldn't tell the difference between a Communist and capitalist turkey"), spoke to the National Press Club, toured Manhattan, San Francisco (where he debated Walter Reuther on Stalin's crimes before a retinue of AFL-CIO leaders, or in K's words, "capitalist lackeys"), and Los Angeles (there he supped at the 20th Century Box commissary, visited the set of the Frank Sinatra picture Can Can but to his great disappointment the premier did not get to visit Disneyland), and sat down one more with the president, at Camp David. Mrs. K did the ladies-who-lunch circuit, with Pat Nixon as guide. It's not like it was all hearts and flowers. He bellowed that America, as Time magazine reported, "must close down its worldwide deterrent bases and disarm." Reporters asked him what he'd been doing during Stalin's blood purges, and the 1956 invasion of Hungary. A banquet of 27 industrialists tried to impress upon him the merits of capitalism. Eleanor Roosevelt toured him through Hyde Park. Nelson Rockefeller rapped with him about the Bible.

Had America suddenly succumbed to a fever of weak-kneed appeasement? Was the general running the country—the man who had faced down Hitler!—proven himself what the John Birch Society claimed he was: a conscious agent of the Communist conspiracy?

No. Nikita Khrushchev simply visited a nation that had character. That was mature, well-adjusted. A nation confident we were great. We had our neuroses, to be sure—plenty of them.

But look now what we have lost. Now when a bad guy crosses our threshhold, America becomes a pants-piddling mess.

Iran's president speaks at a great American university. That university's president, in the act of introducing his lecture, whines like a baby bereft of his pacifier that his guest is a big meany poopy-head. City Council members, too, and a rabbi, make like ten-year-olds, giving their press conference in front of a sign with his face struck through and the legend "Go To Hell." Up in Albany, Democratic leader Sheldon Silver treat the students of this great university like ten years olds, threatening to defund Columbia University lest censors like himself prove unable to shut the poor children's ears to difficult speech. (What, was he worried they'd be convinced, join the jihad?) Then a Republican presidential candidate chimes in—bye, bye, federalism!—saying Washington should starve the school of funds, too. American diplomats used to have the gumption to spar face to face with dreaded foreign leaders. Now they go on cable TV and whine about what a "travesty" it would have been to visit a site which properly should belong to the world. Hundreds of foreign nationals died in the World Trade Center on 9/11 (maybe even some of the Iranian!). Yet we have to systematically repress that—as if our national ego would crack like fine crystal if we were forced to acknowledge the mingling of American blood with that of mere foreigners.

But—-they sputter—-Ahmadinejad has has promised to wipe Israel off the map!

Well, Khrushchev had promised to wipe the U.S. off the map. ("We will bury you.") And, unlike Mr. A, who has but some possible stores of fissile material, Mr. K very much had the means, motive, and opportunity to do it—thousands of nuclear-tipped rockets aimed at every city in the land.

How cowardly our conservative Republic of Fear has made us. How we tremble at the mere touch of a challenge. It's conservatives who started it, of course. Here's what they're reading in their own media: a letter from Human Events editor Tom Winter headlined "Are You Ready for a New Dark Ages?":

Dear Fellow Conservative:

Someday soon, you might wake up to the call to prayer from a Muslim muezzin. Millions of Europeans already do.

And liberals will still tell you that "diversity is our strength" -- while Talibanic enforcers cruise our cities burning books and barber shops... the Supreme Court decides sharia law doesn't violate the "separation of church and state" ... and the Hollywood Left gives up gay rights in favor of the much safer charms of polygamy.

If you think this can't happen, you haven't been paying attention, as the hilarious and brilliant Mark Steyn -- the most popular conservative columnist in the English-speaking world -- shows to devastating effect in his New York Times bestseller, America Alone: The End of the World As We Know It....

This stuff is mind-numbingly hysterical—literally. Such rhetoric is literally calculated to numb the mind, to render any rational calculus impossible, to reduce democratic deliberation on the most subtle and difficult issues of our time to mere grunts and snorts, turning readers' minds to mush. That's what the conservative media is all about.

The worst thing about, however, is how many people who should know better have surrendered it. They've lowered us all to their own pants-piddling level. And somewhere, Nikita Khrushchev is smiling. For well and truly, he is right. We have been buried—-by our own demobilizing.

Phil Carter: House to House

From <>:

INTEL DUMP - House to House: In last month's Washington Monthly, my friend Clint Douglas penned a brilliant review essay of David Bellavia's new combat memoir "House to House." If you follow military blogs or websites, you might've heard of Staff Sgt. Bellavia -- an infantryman who fought in the second battle of Fallujah, earning the Silver Star for leading his squad and single-handedly killing six insurgents. Douglas, who knows something of combat from his tour in Afghanistan as an Army Special Forces NCO, pans the book for its editorializing and overwrought descriptions of events. But the best part of the review comes at the end, where Douglas writes about the larger questions raised by Bellavia's memoir and thinking about combat:

There’s another problem within this book, and it has less to do with the telling of the story than what lies at the heart of it. Bellavia deeply believes in the cause for which he and his comrades fought, and wants the reader to believe too. “Fallujah will never be just another battlefield,” he writes in the book’s closing pages. “It was here that we fought for hope.” And yet the reader of House to House is left with nagging questions: What was gained in Fallujah? What did all of the blood and sacrifice accomplish within the larger context of the war? We won the battle of Fallujah, but how did this advance American objectives in Iraq? How did it fit into a greater strategy?

The answer to this last question, of course, is that it didn’t. There was no comprehensive strategy. The first battle of Fallujah (dubbed by some Marines who fought in it as “Operation Just Kidding”) was halted prematurely, making the Americans appear both weak and irresolute. In the second battle—the one in which Bellavia and his men fought—the city was effectively razed, but that still didn’t mark a positive turning point in the conflict. Many of the insurgents, who’d based themselves in Fallujah, simply pulled out before the American onslaught and went on to spread the insurgency elsewhere in the country. The vast majority of American forces arrayed for the operation were ordered back to their sprawling bases afterward. The military failed to secure the population, and the occupation continued much as it had before.

In retrospect we know why. We were fighting insurgents in exactly the wrong way; you do not beat an insurgency by destroying a whole city. At one point in the fighting Bellavia notes, “We don’t give a shit about stirring up the locals; as far as we’re concerned, they’re already stirred up. Using maximum force is exactly what we want to do.” This may be an appropriate sentiment for an infantry NCO, but it is exactly the wrong strategy to win a guerilla war. I shed no tears for the deaths of jihadis anywhere; indeed, it was my pleasure to chase them around the mountains of eastern Afghanistan in 2003. But if we’re not fighting for the locals, then why the hell are we there?

We finally have a general in command in Iraq, David Petraeus, who literally wrote the book on counterinsurgency. American strategy has changed at last. The extra troops in the “surge” have provided security for many Iraqis and forestalled at least some sectarian killings. Progress has been made in recruiting Baathist insurgents to fight al-Qaeda. Al-Anbar Province, once the heart of the insurgency, is increasingly quiet, in part because we are now arming the very insurgents who were shooting at us. Our armed forces have learned from the mistakes of the past. But is it all too late? The American public is tired of the war in Iraq, and the Bush administration no longer has any credibility. There is broad agreement that the additional troop levels cannot be maintained for long. The overall Sunni-Shiite divide has never been deeper, and ethnic cleansing continues. We are finding ourselves backing both sides in a civil war. A political compromise between the factions remains as elusive as ever, and the Shiite-led government is only marginally better than dysfunctional. And as I write this, the Iraqi parliament is on vacation, while American soldiers continue to fight and die.

September 24, 2007

Paul Krugman: Bubba Isn't Who You Think

Bubba Isnt Who You Think - Paul Krugman - Op-Ed Columnist - New York Times Blog: Bubba Isn’t Who You Think Since I’ve just published an op-ed about the enduring influence of race on Southern voting, I’m sure to be accused of being a typical Northeastern snob talking about poor white trash who don’t know what’s good for them. So I thought I’d mention an important point about Southern white voting that didn’t fit in 800 words: namely, the poor whites are not the issue.

In fact, if you look at voting behavior, low-income whites in the South are not very different from low-income whites in the rest of the country. You can see this both in Larry Bartels’s “What’s the matter with What’s the Matter With Kansas?” (pdf), Figure 3, and in a comprehensive study of red state-blue state differences by Gelman et al (pdf). It’s relatively high-income Southern whites who are very, very Republican. Can I get away with saying that rich white trash are the problem? Probably not.

What this reflects, in turn, is the odd fact that income levels seem to matter much more for voting in the South. Contrary to what you may have read, the old-fashioned notion that rich people vote Republican, while poorer people vote Democratic, is as true as ever – in fact, more true than it was a generation ago. But in rich states like New Jersey or Connecticut, the relationship is weak; even the very well off tend to be only slightly more Republican than working-class voters. In the poorer South, however, the relationship is very strong indeed.

This is why it’s true both that rich voters tend to be Republican, and that rich states tend to be Democratic.

Gelman et al have a nice way of putting this:

If we had to pick a “typical Republican voter,” he or she would be an upper-income resident of a poor state, and the “typical Democratic voter” would conversely be a lower-income resident of a rich state. But these are more subtle concepts, not directly readable off the red-blue map—and, in any case, we would argue that given the diversity among supporters of either party, choosing typical members is misleading.

Stop The Spirit of Zossen 2.0: The Manichean Anti-Koniggratz

a href="http://www.stiftungleostrauss.com/bunker/?p=102#more-102"> The Manichean Anti-Koniggratz | Stop The Spirit of Zossen 2.0: The Manichean Anti-Koniggratz Posted September 23rd @ 12:21 pm by Dr Leo Strauss

Of all the offensive things Neocons and their Likudnik partners in arms do, among the most blatant is their cynical pilfering of historic icons and memes to justify their covertly amoral (and clumsy) macht politik objectives.

We all mock their pornographic overuse of Churchill and Lincoln. That’s now so heavy-handed even the “checked out” South Park and Metalpocalypse generations snark it. Still, Neocons are not 10 feet tall in the AgitProp department. Neocon/Likudnik ‘inexplicable’ successes in 2007 largely a gift from philosophically bankrupt Democrats and remnants of the so-called foreign policy ‘Establishment’. Only now, vaguely, do they understand the malignant parasitic ideologies in the regime’s host. And that will remain with the host’s passing.

Democrats and Oppositionists fail and flail. Sputtering in frustration, not knowing why. In politics, empty inertia and the tactical almost always lose to the vigorous (or seemingly so), steering towards a philosophical objective. What must happen until this simple lesson is learned?

We are reminded of all this watching this week’s American, Israeli and Sunni AgitProp posturing over Iran. That Iran strikes are so prominent a topic today just another sign of Democrat ineptitude. Should an unreformed (i.e. rebuffing revitalization by the netroots or embracing other coherent, positive, purposeful philosophy) Democrat establishment gain power in 2008, we suspect there remain good chances it will be subjectively deemed a political ‘failure’ — especially if a ‘naive’ Obama.

One can envision now a philosophically inert (no matter how well intentioned) Democratic Administration bee stung, bewildered, set up, tripped and otherwise sabotaged within and without by the Warlord’s parasites. And shudder at the retributive response by the parasitic ‘Restoration’ successor. Perhaps an inept Democrat Administration in 2008 is the final necessary domino to fall, the unwitting key in the lock. So what better time to convene a national convention to re-open the Constitution, hey?

All of which brings to mind that old chestnut, “The 1866 Battle of Koniggratz”. Long story short? As we know, force is best used to support a specific war aim.

Bismarck is not a historical icon that you can expect to see name checked on Hannity radio, Tweety’s abomination, or especially over at AEI (the latter at least know the history). Bismarck’s an AgitProp manipulation too far for the American stooge audience. First, there’s the whole Prussian nobility and crushing of liberal democracy thing. No Jacobin he. Neocons know blunt emotions still are necessary for successful marketing to the American mass consciousness. Americans are not meme-primed. The few Americans familiar with the name likely would respond instinctively “Sink it!”. Finally, Neocons and Likudniks know that Bismarck reeks the stale, dusky odor of hated realism and Kissinger in the 1970s.

Yet, there is no denying that Bismark successfully used force and diplomacy to take Prussia from the sidelines to the throne of a new German Empire in an eye blink. Along the way, Prussia defeated first the Austrians at Koniggratz and then the French under Napoleon III in 1870 (actually capturing the French Emperor at Sedan). Did he plan all this in advance? Or take advantage of daily events as they showed themselves? Still assignments at the better schools’ undergraduate History 301 courses.

Prussian war objectives with Austria in 1866 could not be more clear and precise. Prussia needed Austria out of the way to secure its hegemony over the German principates. Prussia won the 1866 war at Koniggratz.

The kind of AgitProp in the air today is even more the anti-Koniggratz than 2002. With the facades all torn away by now, the essential nihilism of this regime shines through. Force for the empty release of Force.

We still remain non-plussed about the inevitability of the strikes in the Warlord’s last 15 months. Perhaps we over-estimate the American military’s (particularly Army and Marines) willingess to take a stand against their own immolation and seppuku. We naturally gave up hope on the State Department long ago under either General Jello or Cher Condi (although some bloggers were clever and smart enough to ride State Department connections to fame and fortune).

Iranian acquisition of nuclear weapons is not a foregone formality. We do believe engagement is possible although it must now account for Iranian strategic victory post Iraq. (Recall the office of Iranian President is primarily ceremonial). Even so, as mentioned here elsewhere, we share General Abizaid’s recent statements that Persia is an ancient and proud Nation, and is not in the General’s phraseology “a suicide state”. With a return address. We are also confident that Abizaid speaks for many in the E Wing, in region and elsewhere. In fact, regarding the threat of Iranian proliferation diversion, Persian responsibility with nuclear weapons on its face already is far more stable than Pakistan’s record, with Khan, ISI jihadi infiltration/sympathies, etc.

Would Cheney, the Neocons and Likudniks prefer to ignite the region into a Manichean conflagration? Of course. Are they above manufacturing and staging ‘incidents’ to try and jump start a war? Of course not.

Notwithstanding the above, we still don’t see Iranian strikes happening, ceteris paribus today.

September 22, 2007

Abu Aardvark: CATO: Assessing the Surge

Abu Aardvark: CATO: Assessing the Surge: CATO: Assessing the Surge

This morning I took part in a panel discussion at the Cato Institute called "assessing the surge."  It appears that last week's fireworks did not exhaust interest in the subject;  the room was full - the organizer estimated about 150 people.  The other panelists were Daveed Gartenstein-Ross from the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies and the Weekly Standard (pinch-hitting for Clifford May), James Dobbins of RAND, and Chris Preble of Cato.   Luckily, my worst fears were not realized;  nobody wanted to talk about Ayn Rand.

My comments for the most part won't surprise anyone who reads the blog regularly.   In the first half, I outlined where I agreed with the Petraeus/Crocker report:  there has been no political progress at the national level and in fact things have regressed - and therefore, by the original logic of the surge, it has failed;  there has been little progress in the south, where intra-Shia violence is escalating;  sectarian cleansing of Baghdad proceeds apace;  and there have been some changes in the Sunni areas.  I pointed out that the reduction of violence in Baghdad and other mixed cities results in part from the brutal fact that sectarian cleansing has succeeded - and that there is no prospect on the horizon for the return of these refugees and displaced persons, who constitute a new Iraqi community likely consumed by sectarian resentment fueled by immediate harsh experience and formulating new communal narratives which are the farthest thing from "bottom up reconciliation."  I gave my usual argument about what happened in the Sunni areas, which I won't recapitulate here.   I concluded with my mind-boggling experience yesterday of watching an American neoconservative on al-Jazeera lecturing a Sunni Iraqi tribal shaykh - in English - about what is really going on in  the Sunni tribal areas, and warned against believing our own propaganda about the Sunni areas.

All the speakers were interesting:  Garenstein-Ross gave a much more sober and guarded assessment than I had expected from a Weekly Standard writer, and we actually ended up agreeing about more than we disagreed (though I don't understand how he could argue that the Bush administration's spin was misleading and overly optimistic in 2005 and 2006, while simultaneously expecting us to believe that now, in 2007, we should take their claims at face value).   Preble gave a sobering analysis focused on domestic politics which argued that the real model was Korea and that the US was not leaving Iraq any time soon in spite of the strategic failures and the hostile public opinion. 

I found James Dobbins the most interesting speaker (including myself).  Drawing on his own long experience as a diplomat  and as a student of interventions, he argued forcefully for a version of the Iraq Study Group's 'diplomatic surge' which would bring all of Iraq's neighbors into a Dayton-like (or Bonn-like) conference.  The US brought Milosevic and Tudjman to Dayton knowing perfectly well the amount of blood on their hands and the boost it would give to their domestic political fortunes, because that was the only way to end the violence - and it worked.  He argued that no civil war can ever be resolved if the country's neighbors don't want it to be resolved;  the US can either contain Iran or stabilize Iraq, but it can't have both.   

At the end, I elaborated on Dobbins' Dayton example by suggesting an alternative lesson of the Anbar model which is rarely discussed.   After years of failed warfare against the Sunni insurgency, the US decided to talk with and then cooperate with "former" insurgents with a lot of American blood on their hands.  They discovered that it worked (at least for the short term).   It's ironic that the same people who currently most vigorously defend the "Anbar Model" of working with these "former insurgents" usually strongly oppose any serious dialogue with Syria or Iran.  If there's one good thing which could come out of the current American Sunni strategy in Iraq, perhaps it will be the recognition that talking to one's enemies can sometimes have positive results.

I'll put up a link to the video when Cato puts it online.   

Ilan Goldenberg: Jim Dobbins Is Really Smart

democracyarsenal.org: Jim Dobbins Is Really Smart: I went to an excellent panel today on Iraq at the Cato Institute (Actually much more fair and balanced than the Brookings panel).  Marc Lynch already posted on the panel.  With all due respect to Marc, I agree with him that Ambassador Jim Dobbins was the most fascinating speaker (Although Marc was great to).  Dobbins knows a little bit about fixing messes, having been the Clinton administration's Special Envoy for Somalia, Haiti, Bosnia, and Kosovo and the Bush administration's first Special Envoy for Afghanistan. 

Dobbins argued that in every case of trying to fix a failed state the neighbors play a critical role.  They have serious national interests because they are the ones who have to deal with the refugees, violence, crime, economic shocks and all the other wonderful things that happen as a result of a total meltdown on your border.  They simply are not going to sit on the sidelines. 

All of the neighbors have an interest in maintaining stability.  To do this they search for proxies who will carry out their agenda.  Paradoxically, this proxy strategy only ends up exacerbating the situation by strengthening various warring parties and creating greater potential for broader regional conflict. The only way around this, is to create a regional dialogue that forces all the neighbors to come together and coordinate their strategies.  Instead of a zero sum game they should be working towards the same greater goal of keeping Iraq from totally falling apart. 

A regional working group is not a new idea, but I’ve always wondered if the whole diplomacy angle was just a way to make everyone feel better without actually having a substantial impact on the ground.  Dobbins clearly explained why it is just so important. 

Dobbins also pointed out that there is no one in the U.S. government who is currently playing this role.  Crocker doesn’t have the authority to talk to the neighbors, except through their representatives in Iraq.  Most of the neighbors don’t have a large diplomatic presence in the country and even if they did, these conversations need to happen at a more senior level. 

Clearly, we need a special envoy to the region whose job is to coordinate the various neighbors and get them all to sit down and talk.  My choice would be Jim Dobbins.

Update:  Senators Bob Casey (D-PA) and Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) are introducing an amendment intended to promote a diplomatic surge.  It addresses much of what Dobbins talked about yesterday.   

Jon Alterman: The Next Iraq Problem

Abu Aardvark: Iraq’s refugees tell heartbreaking accounts of suffering, displacement, and shattered dreams, but these refugees represent more than mere human interest stories. Collectively, the outpouring of millions of Iraqi refugees into a very small number of neighboring countries poses a dramatic security threat to the Middle East, and there is no sign that threat is going away.

In the lead up to the Iraq war, most of the U.S. government discussion about refugees assumed that refugee flows would be sudden, massive and brief. When more than a million Kurds fled Iraq into Turkey and Iran in 1991 to avoid Saddam’s wrath, camps were set up within days. The U.S. military dropped food and supplies, and provided protection for those trapped within Iraq’s borders. A few months later, the crisis was over, and refugees returned to their homes.

Iraq’s refugees now are not like the refugees then. They have fled slowly, not suddenly. They live in capital cities such as Damascus and Amman, not in open fields or encampments. And they are not peasants or craftsmen who can eke out a living on meager resources; they are white-collar workers with education and training but little future in their homeland.

Iraq’s refugees give little sign of returning home, and it is no wonder why. Iraq continues to unravel, and life is especially dangerous for the cosmopolitan petit bourgeoisie whom many assumed would inherit post-Saddam Iraq. Today’s Iraq is no place for a doctor or a professor, especially one with a young family. Sectarianism plays in as well. Perhaps half of the refugees are Sunni Arabs, a group that represents about a fifth of the Iraqi population but had been the backbone of Saddam’s regime. They see their country sliding not only into Shi’a control, but to rule by a Shi’a mob that is bent on revenge.

In many ways, however, fleeing the country provides only a brief respite. Few refugees are allowed to work in their new homes, and savings are running out. Children are sometimes barred from school, and others go to schools bursting at the seams. Health care, when it is available, is often expensive. The refugee flow has dramatically boosted housing prices, not only raising costs for the new émigrés, but also squeezing the young and working class in countries such as Syria and Jordan who see affordable housing sliding beyond their grasp.

The refugee flows are massive, and they are squeezed into a very small number of countries. Syria alone claims to  have more than 1.5 million Iraqi refugees—representing about eight percent of Syria’s  population—mostly concentrated in the Damascus area. The economy is far from booming: foreign subsidies have dried up, the country’s small oil reserves are fast depleting, and foreign investors balk at penetrating a government bureaucracy that is slowly reforming but remains profoundly opaque. While some Iraqis maintain businesses back home while living in the safety of Damascus, desperation forces many more into prostitution and other crimes.

Syria periodically raises the possibility of cutting off the refugee flow or pushing Iraqis out, but doing so would require a dramatic shift in the ruling party’s pan-Arab ideology. The government seems caught, yet determined to muddle through.

Difficult as Syria’s problems are, Jordan’s are even more dire. Jordan has accepted 750,000 Iraqis, who now constitute more than ten percent of Jordan’s population. When combined with the 60 percent of Jordanians of Palestinian origin, the ruling Hashemites and their East Bank Jordanian allies have become an even smaller minority in their own country. Jordan has always been more homogenous than Syria, but the influx of hundreds of thousands of Shi’a Arabs has put an end to that.

Jordan’s refugee problem is compounded by a crisis brewing on its western border. With Hamas’ rise in the Palestinian territories, and the Fatah-led government’s determination to squelch it, instability there leaches into Jordan’s majority Palestinian community. The peril increases as U.S. policymakers and others push Jordan to deepen connections to the West Bank as a way of improving conditions in Palestine and supporting President Mahmoud Abbas. It may all work out well, but the danger is that Jordan falls prey to the crises on its eastern and western borders.

Other countries have taken smaller numbers of refugees but many have taken few or none. It is here, perhaps, that the United States is leading by example. The United States accepts 70,000 refugees per year worldwide, and only a small fraction have been from Iraq. Post-September 11 security concerns are partly in play, but more important is a reluctance to admit the magnitude of problems in Iraq and the likely permanence of the refugees’ displacement.

For too long, the Iraqi refugee problem has been seen merely as a humanitarian problem. It is that, but it is also a strategic one. Hundreds of thousands of increasingly desperate, unassimilated refugees can do dramatic things, and among them is threatening the stability of their new home. Assimilating these populations has its own challenges, especially in essentially authoritarian systems with limited resources and existing patronage networks.

For the United States, the strategic implications of Jordanian instability are clear, so deep is the military, intelligence, and diplomatic cooperation with that country, and so important is the Jordanian role in Arab-Israeli peacemaking. Instability in Syria is feared less, although it could make the country even more hostile to U.S. interests. In addition, few have contemplated the long-term impact of violent extremists mixed into these refugee populations, networked throughout the region and representing a new and virulent threat to their host societies.

No amount of money or time will make this problem go away. It is an international problem, and it will require international cooperation. More refugees will need to be absorbed outside of the Middle East, and lives will need to be put back together. There will need to be extensive screening of migrants, and robust intelligence cooperation. Making all of this work will require leadership, and the United States has not led nearly as much as it needs to.

The Duck of Minerva: Secret Strike (and the consequences of failure)

The Duck of Minerva: Secret Strike (and the consequences of failure): Something is brewing in the Middle East that merits close attention, because the more we learn about it, the more intriguing it becomes. It also brings home some chickens to roost, so to speak, for earlier Bush Administration foreign policy failures.

Last week, Israel launched a highly secret air-strike deep into Syria. Despite the fact that Israel and Syria share a border (the direct route), the squadron of Israeli F-15's flew over the Med, through Turkey (a very close Israeli military ally), and dropped significant ordinance onto a Syrian target. The entire operation has been cloaked in secrecy--Syria didn't denounce the attack for over 12 hours after it happened, and has been unusually quiet about the entire incident. Israel has said nothing, and the US is also tight-lipped. The loudest condemnations have come from North Korea, recently rumored to be cooperating with Syria on nuclear issues.

The current speculation, per the NYT, is that Israel hit a nascent North Korean supplied nuclear facility in Syria. This speculation is fueled by China's abrupt cancellation of talks over North Korea's nuclear program--a program they had just agreed (with the US) to give up.

So, what are we to make of all this? It was clearly a very aggressive move by Israel, but what is most interesting, to me, about it, is the muted response by Syria and the rest of the Arab world. Syria and Israel are taking this very seriously--there are reports that both are mobilizing their armed forces and reserves along the border. But the public statements have been muted--more so on the Israeli side (total silence) than on Syria (who did formally protest to the UN).

Its the North Korea connection that I find most fascinating. North Korea and Syria have a longstanding relationship buying and selling weapons. Its the nuclear aspect that is troubling--in part that Syria was taking steps to proliferate, and in part that North Korea was willing to facilitate that proliferation.

It also highlights the consequences of several years of failure of the Bush Administration's North Korea policy. Coming into office back in 2001, there was an opportunity to re-engage North Korea and reach a nuclear deal. The Bush Administration opted for confrontation and containment, and while isolated, North Korea tested several new ballistic missiles and, most significantly, tested a nuclear device, entering the nuclear club. Only after all of this, did the Administration relent and re-engage in meaningful diplomacy, reaching a deal whereby North Korea agreed to give up its nuclear program and subject itself to inspections.

And now this. Hard-liners such as John Bolten, a staunch opponent of any talks with North Korea both while at the State Department and while outside of government, will point to this as proof-positive that North Korea can't be trusted, that any deal with them isn't worth the paper its printed on, that North Korea is cheating.

But consider the alternative scenario--had the US engaged in meaningful nuclear diplomacy in 2002, giving Charles Prichard the same brief as Christopher Hill now has, its quite possible that a situation such as this could have been avoided. With nuclear inspectors in North Korea, there would have been a much better accounting of the DPRK nuclear program. Had this happened earlier, the recent breakthroughs that allowed North Korea to test a weapon would not have happened. And, in a functioning deal with the US, North Korea would probably have been less likely to risk upsetting that deal by working with the Syrians.

How much of this idle speculation looks at the situation with rose-colored glasses? Perhaps some. But not all. Indeed, had the Bush Administration placed nuclear proliferation and North Korea at the top of its national security priority list instead of, say, Iraq, back in 2002, most of the antecedent conditions that led to this raid could have been avoided.

Ilan Goldenberg: Petraeus's Fuzzy Math

democracyarsenal.org: Fuzzy Numbers... Again: OK, you would have thought that after all the heat that the Pentagon took for its inconsistent violence numbers they would have been very careful about the latest data that they issued in their September report to Congress.  But they weren’t.  There are significant inconsistencies between the numbers General Petraeus showed to Congress regarding civilian casualties and the numbers in the Pentagon’s latest reports.  Again, Petraeus’s numbers seem to make the period before the surge look worse and the numbers after the surge look much better. 

I graphed the Pentgon’s data on civilian casualties from its latest report (Pg 20).  The data is for daily casualties, which includes both wounded and killed (I only included Iraqi civilians, which is the green bar).  I converted the numbers to monthly casualties and compared it to the civilian death numbers on Page 3 of General Petraeus’s presentation to Congress.  I don’t know if the data comes from the same source.  Although, to be clear the Pentagon report data comes from the database that Petraeus himself stated was the best source of information and was verified by two U.S. intel agencies.  Petraeus’s data comes from “Coalition and Host Nation Reporting.”  I graphed everything based on eyeballing the data so the numbers are not exact.

Still, you’d expect the Iraqi civilian death numbers to track the Iraqi dead and wounded numbers and obviously civilian dead should be lower than wounded and dead combined.  Unfortunately that is simply not the case.  Three observations:

According to the MNC-I data there has been no improvement since either December (The numbers Petraeus and the Administration often cite) or February (when the surge actually began).  Why wasn’t Congress shown these numbers in the presentation by General Petraeus?  Why only the good news numbers?  Why the lack of clarity on Petraeus’s sourcing?  Especially since he himself acknowledged that the best numbers come from the MNC-I database. 

In terms of actual anomalies:

Anomaly A:  Somehow in December, the month that is always cited by the Pentagon and the Administration, Petraeus’s Iraqi dead is actually greater than the MNC-I Iraqi Dead + Wounded.  That makes absolutely no sense.  You can’t have more dead than dead and wounded combined.

Anomaly B:  In the months after the surge begins Petraeus’s Iraqi dead numbers are significantly lower than the dead + wounded numbers in the Pentagon report.  This is inconsistent with the entire history of the previous year, where the numbers track closely.  The only explanation would be a dramatic increase in the wounded to dead ratio.  Perhaps there were more car bombings that injured people but didn’t kill them, as opposed to close range executions where victims do not survive.  Or maybe there is another explanation.  Still it seems inconsistent to see this major split just as the surge begins..

I’ve also graphed what the wounded numbers should look like based on this data (i.e. you can take the total civilian casualty numbers and subtract civilian deaths to find wounded).  Notice how in December 2006 and January 2007 the numbers are actually negative, which makes no sense at all.  By far the three highest months of wounded are March 2007, April 2007 and August 2007 – after the surge has started. 

Overall, the numbers used by Petraeus have the same effect as all the other inconsistencies.  They make the numbers right before the surge look extremely bad and the numbers during the surge look much better.  Maybe that’s just a coincidence.  But it does raise more questions.