Matthew Yglesias on Israel's Future

The Nature of the Threat: Tom Friedman had a good column on Israel's fundamental strengths vis-à-vis Iran.... "Iran’s economic and military clout today is largely dependent on extracting oil from the ground. Israel’s economic and military power today is entirely dependent on extracting intelligence from its people. Israel’s economic power is endlessly renewable. Iran’s is a dwindling resource based on fossil fuels made from dead dinosaurs."

To me, though, the natural followup to this is consideration of Israel's real strategic vulnerability -- the country is ruling over a population of several million Arabs to whom it refuses to grant either independence or citizenship. That's a recipe for big trouble, and it's trouble that economic dynamism and technological prowess can't overcome. Independence for these Arabs, by contrast, would pose some direct security risks but as Friedman argues Israel is a very successful country and society that gives every indication of being able to whether the security challenges of a very difficult region. But how long can Israel persist as a successful country while contravening basic democratic norms and denying rights and electoral participation to a huge proportion of its de facto population?

There are good and obvious reasons for Israelis to want to resist incorporating millions of West Bank and Gaza Palestinians into their country, but the only realistic alternative to doing that is create a viable state on those lands for the Palestinians. On one level, this is well understood, but on another level it's often hard to detect any understanding of it at all when you look at the policies of Israel and "pro-Israel" groups in the United States.

Comments

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I have never understood the strategic blindness of the Caroline Glicks of this world as they made attack after attack against Rice and others in their pursuit of even a modest settlement of the Palestine imbroglio. The notion that Israel can remain as it is for a period of, say, sixty plus years as it continues to build settlements while the Palestinian population grows is an utter fantasy, and a dangerous one at that.

Israel's body politic is paralyzed, and it has little to do with us. Israel has no Rabin among them right now, no one who will say to the Israelis, "this is the difficult path, but it is what must be done".

However, the fecklessness of the Olmert Government is matched by the craven dishonesty of the Palestinians. Very few Palestinian leaders could match Yasir Arafat for dishonesty and low cunning. His successors, such as Arafat toady Abu Mazen, are time servers and Swiss Account holders.

Hamas won the election in Gaza for a reason. Though theirs was the "Jews to the Ovens" party, they had the virtue of being relatively incorruptable,as most Islamist parties are before they take power.

Nothing will be resolved among the Israelis and the Palestinians until the Iranian bid for regional hegemony is sent packing.