Another Gulf Storm...

This is not a good thing to see. I hope the Gulf of Mexico has cooled off *a lot* over the past month.

Comments

[Cranky Observer]

From what I have read on the NHC site, the Carribean at least is charged up with energy - that is why it goes to "H" status so quickly. They haven't said much about the Gulf yet.

But whacking into the Yucatan doesn't usually help (from the hurricane's point of view), so that is good for North America though bad for the Yucatan.

Cranky

[wkwillis]

The Gulf is not as hot as the Caribbean, but there are some hot spots near the coast that would boost it to hurricaine status overnight. Tropical storm to Hurricaine depends on how hot the water is directly below the storm in the twenty four hours before landfall.

[Dano]

It's a tad late in the season, but storms during this time in the year can still dump a lot of rain. Another issue to consider is that the upper winds this time of year usu. aren't favorable for, say, landfall near NOLA. So there's that.

Best,

D

[CalculatedRisk]

Here is the site for Sea Surface Temperatures:
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone/data/fulllist.html

Compare the GOM and Caribbean in late August (before Katrina) to the present. The GOM is much cooler.

Wilma will most likely turn sharply toward Florida and not be a petroleum event.

[dilbert dogbert]

Hope to hell it just dies in the GOM.

[Robert Seeberger]

If anyone thinks one of these storms are not dangerous because of the lateness of the season, I suggest you do a search for "Tropical Storm Allison".

I am *still* doing work related to that storm and it occured in June 2001.

In 1978 a tropical depression flooded Houston so bad that i got 4 1/2 feet of water in my apartment and lost everything I owned.
IIRC, Alvin TX got 45 inches of rain in 24 hours during that event, still a North American record.

rob

[Jonathan W. King]

Not that it will make Brad DeLong feel any better, but NOAA has this to say about predicted wind speeds:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/211549.shtml?table

So in 72 hours, they give a 25% chance that this becomes a category 4 or 5 storm. Fortunately, as we found out with Rita, storms tend not to stay at their peak intensity for very long, and the Gulf is cooler than it was. But people who assume this isn't a threat because it's October are kidding themselves.

[DuckedApe]

Steve Gregory at http://www.wunderground.com/blog/SteveGregory/

(someone here pointed to his blog at the time of Katrina) continues to give commentary on the various models (and collect the photos and charts).

"ALL of the new 00Z models continue to track the storm first to the WNW, then NW and then make a strong turn to the northeast as it comes through the Yucatan Channel - with all the models now showing the storm reaching the SW coast of Florida, late Saturday afternoon. Except for the GFNI, all the models show the storm reaching a strong CAT intensity, with the GFNI reaching CAT 3 - by Friday night night. But at the same time, all the models then weaken the storm during the 12 hour period prior to reaching the coast of Florida.

I'll have another brief update late Tuesday morning -- with a full update in the evening."

[Dano]

That's a good link, DA, thanks.

The map 'early cycle track guidance' is what I was thinking of when I wrote the comment above - typical hrcn tracks for this time of year have that rightward turn that would spare NOLA.

D