A Ben Bernanke Party Game!

Identify the time series in the background of this picture:

Comments

[dave]

U.S. current account deficit as a percentage of GDP.

[dave]

wait, nevermind...that's not right...

[Antoni Jaume]

Dollar FOREX?

DSW

[Dr. Dan]

Its the dollar $USD

[andres]

Hmm. Don't Fed chairmen have approval ratings they keep track of?

[eightnine2718281828mu5]

Housing chart; left side is from late 80's/early 90's.

[guachi]

I was going to say stock market, but the spikes above his knuckles are too sharp.

[guachi]

I was going to say stock market, but the spikes above his knuckles are too sharp.

[eightnine2718281828mu5]

housing chart

http://macroblog.typepad.com/.shared/image.html?/photos/uncategorized/new_home_sale_with_population_adjustment.gif

[pat]

It doesn't have a trend, so it can't stock market. 3-month inflation?

[eightnine2718281828mu5]

link was truncated; short version:

http://tinyurl.com/zufa2

[dyu]

VIX

[jerry]

My pulse rate as I first waited months for a seller, then had 5 offers come in within 48 hours, and now wait for escrow to close on my late mother's house while read articles on this website about the housing bubble evaporating.

Will the bank make the loan to our buyers?

[MH]

It's gotta be fixed income. The downward spike is the June 2003 deflationary scare. But the subsequent up and down movements don't quite jive with a yield series. Maybe it's implied swaption vol?

[Pancho Villa]

Nasdaq?

[Fetal Farmer]

Empty boxcars.

[RB]

It does seem to be some form of housing chart since that would also make it a good photograph and question ...

[MITEcon]

The key to this is the horizontal bands that bound _most but not all_ of the time series. What would a Fed Chairman -- in particular Fed Charmain Ben Bernanke -- care about for which it would be a smart thing to draw such bands?

My best guess is that it's some sort of volatile measure of inflation and the bands represent an inflation target range -- say, zero to three percent?

I am not very confident in this guess.

[MITEcon]

PS - I actually took this to a party tonight (Nerd alert!) and the cleverest guess was that it is nothing. Just something made up by the graphics company hired by whoever was hosting the event.

[Greg]

Looks like Core PCE with the bands being Bernanke's 1%-2% comfort zone.

[Otto]

CO2 conc vs mean global temp

[adam]

core pce price index.

[a different chris]

>was that it is nothing. Just something made

That was my guess too.

Which means the clever part, not so much. More the unfortunate exposure to endless amounts of grinding BS.

[eightnine2718281828mu5]

There's really no question, it's a hand-drawn graph of housing, 1988-1994

See the pic:

http://tinyurl.com/zufa2

And of course the fed is concerned with housing, so it should come as no surprise that they would be discussing the topic.

[otto]

Spread betting data on how likely Larry Summers was to resign as President of Harvard?

[Brian G]

Hmm. I almost believed the housing data at http://tinyurl.com/zufa2 was the ticket ... but then um, why the extra spike upward on Ben's time series that isn't represented in the housing chart ... say around 1994. How about commodity prices ... like um oil ... as it kicked up to around 60 back in 05 and then back down to the mid 40s and then back up ... ?

[tomboy]

Dick Cheney's EKG?

[Jared Bernstein]

I'd guess it's a measure of core inflation with the upper and lower bounds being his 'comfort zone' (1-2%)

[Dave]

Greg and Jared are correct. It's core PCE year-over-year inflation, starting in about 1994. Bands look they're at 1% and 2.25%.

[Dave]

Also, Adam picked it as well.

[Jared Bernstein]

What do we win?

A little cap with a propeller on the top?

[Danalyst]

You mean it's not a presidential polygraph?