The household-survey unemployment rate tends to fall when the monthly establishment-survey payroll employment number is more than... it's now 130,000 jobs gained a month, and tends to rise when the monthly establishment-survey payroll employment number is less than 130,000 jobs gained a month.
Figure updated to cover 1981:1 to 2006:7. Datafiles courtesy of http://www.economagic.com
(Since 2000:1, the estimated intercept has risen to 166,000--but is very imprecisely estimated.)
