A Likely Scenario for January

A likely scenario from Same Facts:

Scenario:

1. The Democrats hold the New Jersey Senate seat, and carry Montana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Missouri, and Virginia, but not Tennessee (or Arizona, which is reportedly in play).
2. Lieberman keeps his commitment to caucus with the Democrats. We organize the Senate, start holding hearings. The White House stonewalls.
3. The Iraq Study Group reports, says Iraq is a mess, mistakes have been made, and a new strategy is needed.
4. Rumsfeld resigns.
5. Bush appoints Lieberman to Defense.
6. Lieberman acknowledges Bush's bipartisan gesture, accepts "for the good of the country."
7. Rell appoints a Republican to take Lieberman's seat.
8. Cheney casts the deciding vote, reorganizing the Senate with the Republicans in the majority...

Comments

[NBarnes]

9. Thousands of CT Democrats who voted for Lieberman on tape saying variations of, 'How could I have known? If only I had known!'.

[christofay]

Hopefully we can put that Lieberzombie into the crypt along with Robert Novak, Consiglione Jim (James) Baker, Pill Popper (My Whitey Bro) Bimbo, within a week for the good of the country.

[Lee A. Arnold]

Presuming the Democrats had indeed won the Senate, then the Democrats would still have the House.

[marc sobel]

I want to tell you about some Republicans. If this violates the site policy, feel free to delete it.
--AZ-Sen: Jon Kyl
--AZ-01: Rick Renzi
--AZ-05: J.D. Hayworth
--CA-04: John Doolittle
--CA-11: Richard Pombo
--CA-50: Brian Bilbray
--CO-04: Marilyn Musgrave
--CO-05: Doug Lamborn
--CO-07: Rick O'Donnell
--CT-04: Christopher Shays
--FL-13: Vernon Buchanan
--FL-16: Joe Negron
--FL-22: Clay Shaw
--ID-01: Bill Sali
--IL-06: Peter Roskam
--IL-10: Mark Kirk
--IL-14: Dennis Hastert
--IN-02: Chris Chocola
--IN-08: John Hostettler
--IA-01: Mike Whalen
--KS-02: Jim Ryun
--KY-03: Anne Northup
--KY-04: Geoff Davis
--MD-Sen: Michael Steele
--MN-01: Gil Gutknecht
--MN-06: Michele Bachmann
--MO-Sen: Jim Talent
--MT-Sen: Conrad Burns
--NV-03: Jon Porter
--NH-02: Charlie Bass
--NJ-07: Mike Ferguson
--NM-01: Heather Wilson
--NY-03: Peter King
--NY-20: John Sweeney
--NY-26: Tom Reynolds
--NY-29: Randy Kuhl
--NC-08: Robin Hayes
--NC-11: Charles Taylor
--OH-01: Steve Chabot
--OH-02: Jean Schmidt
--OH-15: Deborah Pryce
--OH-18: Joy Padgett
--PA-04: Melissa Hart
--PA-07: Curt Weldon
--PA-08: Mike Fitzpatrick
--PA-10: Don Sherwood
--RI-Sen: Lincoln Chafee
--TN-Sen: Bob Corker
--VA-Sen: George Allen
--VA-10: Frank Wolf
--WA-Sen: Mike McGavick
--WA-08: Dave Reichert

[none]

Can someone explain this crazy meme of Joementum being reelected and then accepting the secdef job? It makes no sense to me. He takes that job, he's unemployed in two years. The Senate gig is for six years. He's busting his ass (hopefully unsuccessfully) to keep the Senate job. And he will not go over to the republicans "willingly"; he'll claim somehow that it's involuntary, "the Dems left him".

The only way I see him taking a cabinet post is like Ashcroft did--LOSE the Senate election (this time to a very much living opponent unlike Ashcroft) and THEN take the Bush appointment.

[christofay]

Some Republicans? What about them?

It's like a list of the not yet indicted.

George Allen, senator in a state of bigotry

Chocola, state of corruption

Weldon, state of corruption

Hastert & Reynolds, their leadership gland has gone missing but their corruption gland still works

As for the rest of them, there's a scene in the teevee version of Lonesome Dove where the rangers get ready to hang their former comrade, ride with cattle rustlers, die with cattle rustlers, so if the comparatively sane Shays and Chafee have to go, they have to go.

[Nathan]

Hopefully hell freezes over before this happens. And if it does, I'm sure the 9th ring of hell will have a table reserved for Lieberman.

[Tyrone Slothrop]

Why would Bush appoint Lieberman -- who takes such pride in being his own man, and not a loyalist -- to such an important job?

[So that the Republicans could maintain control of the Senate.]

Why would Lieberman give up six years in the Senate to preside over the mess we've made of Iraq for two years?

[It's something senators do: leave the senate to be cabinet members. I agree it's strange.]

It's not like he'd have a job after that.

[Barry]

Tyrone, your second reason is a good one; the only reason I could think of is stark staring egomania on Lieberman's part. The first reason is, of course, wrong. Lieberman isn't his own man, he's happily worked with the GOP, because they have the power, and being a quisling pays well (I presume). He's every bit as much of a maverick, individualist, Strong Independent American Man as McCain. Which is to say, only in the eyes of a fawning media who wouldn't know the truth if they tripped over it.

[Barry]

The biggest flaw in the original idea is the idea that the Democratic Senators would not fillibuster Lieberman's appointment, after what would have been the biggest Senatorial back-stab in decades.

[failingeconomist]

Has someone around here been reading Machiavelli or something? Or are we assuming that Rove is in fact the old boy himself re-incarnated?

Although I have to admit (being neither Rep nor Dem) that if that did indeed happen I think I would be both laughing and applauding at the audacity of it.

However, one thing to consider, what would Joe get out of it? Pensions perhaps? No, I don't know what a Senator gets as a pension but it won't be nothing. Nor do I know what a DefSec gets after leaving but again, I doubt it's nothing. Would someone who had held both jobs get both?

Or is there something in US law I don't know about, whereby you can only get one Federal pension?

[BrooklynRaider]

none is dead-on. Why would Lieberman go from being a freshly-reelected US Senator to a lame-duck cabinet official in a deeply unpopular administration? It would be a career-ending move.

The real question is what price will he extract in exchange for caucusing with the Democrats?

[kharris]

Isn't the assumption that this is Joe's last Senate term anyway? He isn't going to be president. He isn't going to be VP. The Senate pension doesn't get so much richer for completing another term that it would matter to a man who has huge lobbying and speaking potential. The question, I would think, is how much he wants, for a brief time in a troubled administration, to be a cabinet secretary. That and the issue that Barry raises. Even a hint of pulling control of the Senate away from the Democrats and he'd find horse parts in his bed. I'd expect Democrats to blow him out of the water.

[Juan]

"Likely?" On what planet is Joe Lieberman as Secretary of Defense (or Rumsfeld ever resigning for that matter) likely, given all the thoughtful reasons already cited in this comments section? Perhaps I'm misunderstanding the use of the word "likely," but Brad, you don't actually think this scenario is likely, do you? Come on. "Likely" enough that you'd bet on it? It is one thing to speculate, but to declare this "likely" is a shocking prediction from someone who is so proud to claim he is from the "reality based community."

If you think this is so likely, please take up my offer to bet on this claim, I'll even give you odds.

[supersaurus]

maybe lieberman really wants to be secdef, and who cares what his reasons are? maybe he fancies himself the knight in shining armor who will wave his lance and fix the mess bush, rummy, et al have made. he is already voting the bush line without a carrot so if he wants to be secdef as the price for bush getting back gop control of the senate (via the Rell appointment of a gop replacement for joe) do you think bush would hesitate to pay that price? we've had more than 5 years of rummy, so don't get the idea that competence is a prerequisite either. of course this presupposes a one vote democratic margin in the senate. others have pointed out the dems are very likely to control the house which tends to put a damper on the partying in any case, but don't forget where supreme court and other federal justices are confirmed.

[supersaurus]

one more delicious possibility: joe votes with the gop to confirm his own nomination to be secdef ;-).

and regarding a democratic filibuster of joe's appointment...they didn't filibuster the torture bill, so how do the odds look?

secdef isn't the only juicy federal job either, and not all of them require senate confirmation. it matters not where joe goes as long as he resigns the senate, if the aforementioned preconditions are met.

[a different chris]

>Democratic Senators would not fillibuster Lieberman's appointment,

Joe is Mr. Snit himself, it's always all about him.

So if he really wanted some appointment and the Dems didn't want to let him have it I'm sure the first words out of his mouth would be "do it or I'm going Republican". Basically the Senatorial version of "I'm gonna hold my breath until you let me have what I want".

So they got no leverage there.

But the argument as stated by "none" seems to me to be pretty killer, so I'm not losing any sleep over this scenario.

Not that I was, anyway: I never thought in a million years that there was a scenario where Lamont couldn't beat Lieberman but Dems *could* take Montana, Missouri, AND Virginia or Tennesee.

I mean is this an anti-incumbent, referendum on the Republicans Iraq war election or not?

Because if Lieberman the pro-Iraq incumbent can win in a Blue state, I totally fail to see how we will run the table less one in those Red States.

Granted the absolute wartiness of the Rethug candidates there is pretty amazing and does seem to be working it's way into the electorate's conciousness.

[JonF]

I have to agree that Liebermann would be very unlikely to accept a Bush cabinet post at this post. Why go down with the Titanic when he will be ideally placed in the Senate to force both the GOP and the Dems to court his vote-- in effect, becoming the senatorial agenda setter and king-maker.

[Barkley Rosser]

As of Friday morning before the election, tradesports.com has your scenario as the most likely and trending strongly more so (VA and MO are getting larger and larger Dem leads), even as the overall bet on GOP control is still at 2 to 1. The latter is an arbitrage opportunity as the contract is for the outcome on election day, not after a Lieberman switcheroo job.