Leila Fadel of McClatchy Is a Real Journalist

Leila Fadel writes:

McClatchy Washington Bureau | 08/15/2007 | Despite violence drop, officers see bleak future for Iraq : BAGHDAD — Despite U.S. claims that violence is down in the Iraqi capital, U.S. military officers are offering a bleak picture of Iraq’s future, saying they’ve yet to see any signs of reconciliation between Sunni and Shiite Muslims despite the drop in violence. Without reconciliation, the military officers say, any decline in violence will be temporary and bloodshed could return to previous levels as soon as the U.S. military cuts back its campaign against insurgent attacks. That downbeat assessment comes despite a buildup of U.S. troops that began five months ago Wednesday and has seen U.S. casualties reach the highest sustained levels since the United States invaded Iraq nearly four and a half years ago.

Violence remains endemic, with truck bombs on Tuesday claiming as many as 175 lives in northern Iraq and destroying a key bridge near Baghdad, the first successful bridge attack since June. And while top U.S. officials insist that 50 percent of the capital is now under effective U.S. or government control, compared with 8 percent in February, statistics indicate that the improvement in violence is at best mixed. U.S. officials say the number of civilian casualties in the Iraqi capital is down 50 percent. But U.S. officials declined to provide specific numbers, and statistics gathered by McClatchy Newspapers don't support the claim. The number of car bombings in July actually was 5 percent higher than the number recorded last December, according to the McClatchy statistics, and the number of civilians killed in explosions is about the same...

Comments

[andres]

The quality of being a real journalist is defined by one's ability to gather and interpret their own data, as opposed to having it spoonfed by government authorities (and accepted uncritically):

"U.S. officials say the number of civilian casualties in the Iraqi capital is down 50 percent. But U.S. officials declined to provide specific numbers, and statistics gathered by McClatchy Newspapers don't support the claim."

[Robert Waldmann]

Hmmmm I quote pargraph 27 ! (If I counted correctly (IICC)) of Fadel's article

"One bright spot has been the reduction in the number of bodies found on the streets, considered a sign of sectarian violence. That number was 44 percent lower in July, compared to December. In July, the average body count per day was 18.6, compared with 33.2 in December, two months before the surge."

The decline is on the order of total deaths from car bombings in Baghdad. The U.S. officieal based their bogus claim of a 50% decline in one of two ways -- either they counted only bodies found and not bombing deaths or they cherry picked two convenient brief intervals one pre surge with high bombing deaths and one post surge with low deaths.

Fadel did something similar. She stresses deaths from explosions and briefly mentions the decline in night time executions in paragraph 27 (IICC). The decline in bodies found is on the order of total deaths from explosions, so by McClatchey calculations civilian deaths decline by about one third not one half.

I think that she should have presented the McClatchy numbers immediately after quoting and challenging the U.S. officials' claim, Now the December rate of night time killings was a huge increase over say last year so one could interpret the decline as reversion to the mean (or completion of ethnic cleansing as Fadel quite reasonably hypothesises).

Still such a large difference in the rate of killing should have been mentioned before paragraph 27 (IICC).

[save_the_rustbelt]

McClatchy seems to be the last bastion of non-stenographic journalism.

[anne]

Robert Waldmann, carefully done, thank you.

[prostratedragon]

Another point is that the bridge that was blown up yesterday, the bridge over the canal at Taji, has now been blown up at least twice, having reopened after the last attack 3 months ago, according to the Guardian. That persistence would be a part of one's assessment of the attack, I'd guess.

For some reason, the official who gave this information requested anonymity, citing a lack of authorization to release such information. Maybe it was really lack ... to say *anything,* e.g. if it were a grunt cop. For surely everybody in the area knows of the bridge's status and the earlier attack.

Anyway, the McClatchy article is still much better than we typically see, unfortunately.

Guardian: http://tinyurl.com/ys9pg7

[anne]

http://www.juancole.com/2007/08/thousands-of-sadrists-protest-sinjar.html

August 16, 2007

Sinjar Bombings Worst Ever
By Juan Cole

Patrick Cockburn * correctly put the bombings in Sinjar province in the context of the upcoming referendum on whether the oil-rich Kirkuk province will accede to the Kurdistan Regional government. That is, a territorial struggle is going on in the north among ethnic groups that is likely to worsen later this year.

Cockburn also provides this priceless bit of anti-spin:

' The US military has suggested the bombers are operating more ruthlessly in northern Iraq because they can no longer operate in Baghdad because of the success of the American "surge". In reality, the number of car bombings in Baghdad in July was 5 per cent higher than last December and civilian casualties in explosions have increased by about the same percentage. '

At a time when all the US media and government spokesmen are telling us that bombings have been reduced, Cockburn crunched the numbers to show that the number of bombings is actually a bit higher in July than six months earlier, and so is the death toll.

* http://news.independent.co.uk/world/middle_east/article2866788.ece

[anne]

http://www.salon.com/opinion/feature/2007/08/07/surge/print.html

August 7, 2007

A Surge of Phony Spin on Iraq: Bush's backers are peddling a sunny view of the president's strategy -- despite Iraq's political chaos and soaring death counts.
By Juan Cole

As Congress prepared to go on its August recess, Pentagon officials and White House backers were desperately spinning as a success this year's escalation of U.S. troop levels in Iraq. A recent poll shows that there has been a 10 percent uptick in the proportion of Americans who think the so-called surge, first announced by President George W. Bush in January, is having a beneficial effect. But how accurate are the sunny pronouncements coming out of Washington? What would constitute a success for the surge, and how likely is it to be achieved?

The troop escalation was intended to calm down Baghdad and to give the government of Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki breathing room to pursue a political reconciliation, especially with the Sunni Arab population. But the political goals of the surge are simply not being accomplished -- and indeed, the political situation has deteriorated substantially.

Maliki has lost even the few Sunni Arab allies he began with; the Sunni Arab coalition, called the Iraqi Accord Front, that had actually been in his government has now had its cabinet ministers tender their resignations. He has not held further reconciliation talks with dissident Sunni Arab groups. The Sunni Arab guerrilla groups are thinking of forming an opposition political party in hopes of extending their efforts to topple his government into the political sphere. His relations with Sunni Arab neighbors are so bad that Saudi Arabia declined his request to visit Riyadh.

Developments on other fronts are equally grim....

[anne]

The need was not to go to war for Iraq was conclusively determined by the International Atonomic Energy Agency not to be a threat to America before the war and intrusive weapons inspections were on-going even with the IAEA conclusion. However, having gone to war the need for what will soon be 4 1/2 years has been to leave Iraq immeiately an completely. But, there is no chance we will be leaving until 2009 and the leading Democratic candidates for President are insanely committed to leaving American soldiers in Iraq indefinitely even should any of them become President in 2009.

[NeilS]

Wow! I had forgotten what real journalism sounded like.

That was wonderful.