Zimbabwe Inflation 'Incalculable'

Marginal Revolution sends us to:

BBC NEWS | Africa | Zimbabwe inflation 'incalculable': Zimbabwe's chief statistician has said it is impossible to work out the country's latest inflation rate because of the lack of goods in shops. "There are too many data gaps," the Central Statistical Office's Moffat Nyoni told state media. Many staple goods are often absent from shop shelves after the government ordered prices to be halved or frozen in a bid to stem galloping inflation. September's inflation rate was put at almost 8,000%, the world's highest. Other reports suggest the rate could be at near 15,000% and the International Monetary Fund had warned it could reach 100,000% by the end of the year....

Maize meal, bread, meat, cooking oil, sugar and other basic goods used to measure inflation largely disappeared from shops after Robert Mugabe's government ordered prices to be slashed. Manufacturers have said they cannot afford to sell goods at below the cost of producing them. Most basics are intermittently available on the black market at well over the official prices...

Why Thabo Mbeki has not deposed Mugabe remains a mystery to me.

Comments

[anne]

"Why Thabo Mbeki has not deposed Mugabe remains a mystery to me."

Good grief, what conceivable right would Thabo Mbeki have to invade and occupy Zinbabwe? Have we learned nothing of war and occupation? Have we noticed, have we bothered to notice what has happened in Somalia in the 11 months since America supporte an Ethiopian invesion and occupation?

[ken]

"Why Thabo Mbeki has not deposed Mugabe remains a mystery to me."

Well maybe I am just naive but not everyone operates on the assumption that they have some right to decide who rules other nations.

[Michael Carroll]

"Why Thabo Mbeki has not deposed Mugabe remains a mystery to me."

Ditto the above comment. You seem to have Mbeki confused with a US politician.

Also consider the flood of migrants that would unleash...

[anne]

Have Americans become such lunatics that we are incapable of standing for peace? How about working for peace in Africa and not war?

[piotr]

Actually, I remember somewhat better analogy.

There was a president of Uganda, certain Obote, who was democratically elected and deposed by his top general, Idi Amin. Amin proceeded with very excentric and quite bloody reign, at some point he expelled citizens of Indian extractions who dominated commerce, with rather woeful consequences to commerce, no surprise there.

Tanzania intervened and reinstalled Obote. It was surprisingly easy, except that it was then when the real slaugther started. Obote was not as colorful or excentric as Amin, but somehow bloodier. One part of Uganda was called Death Triangle. After a sequence of coups, the current regime of a comparatively benevolent dictator Museveni took over (as you noticed, there are plenty of comparisons to put him in positive contrast).

Precendent number two is when some neighboring countries decided to make order in the mess that was Congo. THAT was a bloody, pointless and inconclusive.

Presumably, South Africa could recruit a reasonably large rebel army among the millions of Zimbabweans currently in South Africa. This is what Tanzania did. Once the power is taken with guns, it stays with guns, and the folks with guns start quarreling with each other. Mind you, Obote was the leader of democratic oposition, what could go wrong?

Zimbabwe could be an easier case, having but two ethnic groups and economy that may be easy to restore, but it does not have to be. Uganda and Congo are not THAT far away.

The last thing is that Mbeki is not a paragon of an unselfish and meritocratic democrat. So far, he does not like the precendent of overthrowing a government merely for dictatorship, but if he really adopted the idea, he could well botch it in an epic way -- but by no means in an unprecedented fashion.

[CBBB]

I think Professor Delong's comment was more along the lines of why Mbeki's South Africa seems to continue to support Mugabe diplomatically - not a call for South Africa to literally invade Zimbabwe. I'm no expert but I believe it's Mbeki's continued support, or at least tolerance, of Mugabe that has allowed him to remain in power.

[ken]

"Mbeki's continued support, or at least tolerance, of Mugabe that has allowed him to remain in power."

Mbeki's support certainly helps Mugabe. But I believe the military bureaucracy within Zimbabwe is his real base. And when one speaks of someone deposing someone else, one is establishing that have some desire/ability/power to do so. My statement is that not everyone works on that assumption. But like I said, I could well be naive.

[Maynard Handley]

"Mbeki's South Africa seems to continue to support Mugabe diplomatically "

I'm no fan of how Mbeki is handling this BUT South Africa is next door to Zimbabwe, not across the Atlantic Ocean. It is South Africa that will have to deal with the situation if everything in Zim goes wrong (ie falls apart even more so than right now).

Beyond that, as others have pointed out, there is a large spectrum of horrors that can occur and, bad as Zim is, it really isn't nearly as bad as it could be. I suspect many a Congolese would happily trade his situation, even now, and certainly during the war, for a Zim. Likewise for Sierra Leone or the Southern half of Sudan.
Barging in, both guns blazing, is not guaranteed to improve the situation --- I suspect 99% of the Iraqi population would rather have Saddam Hussein back than the glorious freedom to be shot on the street that the Americans have given them.