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January 20, 2008

Let Me Highly Recommend Skitch...

Paul Krugman writes about Reaganomics:

Reaganomics - Paul Krugman - Op-Ed Columnist - New York Times Blog: Since we are, improbably but importantly, discussing Ronald Reagan again, I thought it might be worth posting a few graphs on the Reagan economic record. First, the unemployment rate. What this figure shows is that “Morning in America” was a one-shot affair — a recovery from a very severe recession...

Reaganomics - Paul Krugman - Op-Ed Columnist - New York Times Blog

But I am more interested in how Skitch http://plasq.com/skitch allows me to grab and quickly annotate graphics. Highly recommended, pointer courtesy of Daniel Jalkut http://www.red-sweater.com/blog/ at Red Sweater Software.

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Skitch is good but Jing does much of the same and is free.

http://www.jingproject.com/

And there's a Windows version (although I haven't tested that one).

Reminds me:

http://bp0.blogger.com/_kQmcDGJ6WuI/RmF8t8YyaBI/AAAAAAAAACM/xACCQACQvZc/s1600-h/CDO+Structure.bmp

context:

http://calculatedrisk.blogspot.com/2007/06/reelin-in-suckers.html

The thing that impressed me in the graph (even with skitch) is that Krugman cropped it starting in the 70s recession and ending just before the economy took off. I think any other cropping would have made Reagan look worse. Now that is impressive honesty.

THE worst spell of unemployment since before Pearl Harbor.
THE worst stock market crash since '29.
The worst Depression since Hoover.

And finally topped off with what's turned out to be only the third-best recovery since FDR.

And the republicans try to market Reagan's dismal legacy as some sort of Golden Age.

How about adding lines for the inflation rate and the prime rate.

Fair is fair guys.

Oh, and add the budget deficit too!

Would that be fair, Rusty?

You can do the same thing in Excel with a text box.

On your toolbar you should set up "drawing" to be open all the time so you can easily add text boxes, lines, arrows, etc..

Rustbelt, one of the reasons the Reagan recession (i.e., the one triggered by the Fed's response to the massive deficit he proposed for his first year)was so damaging is that the relevant interest rates-- a good benchmark is 10 year Treasuries-- stayed high for so long. As did the price of oil, thanks to his eliminating federal energy research. Fair IS fair.

But that's not why I am posting. I believe that *there is a positive value to recessions.* When the Fed is raising rates, the differential between cost of capital for startup businesses and established businesses rises. During recessions, there is a compression of cost of capital. That's because there aren't many good investment opportunities and investors become more willing to shoulder risk.

The net upshot is that recessions tend to destroy the weakest small businesses, but nurture the formation of new, innovative businesses. Now, I agree with Paul K. that the value of the destructive part is waaay overdone by the Austrians. But I don't think many economists are aware of the constructive part.

Charles,

Other factors the economists fail to include the destructive part: Increased foreclosures, increased crime, increased divorces, increased bankruptcies, increased suicides, etc.

Jose, I think that most non-Austrian economists are aware of the negative side of recessions. They don't count them in traditional measures, which rely on GDP, and so they do minimize them: it's someone else's foreclosure, victimization, or divorce and so not so very important.

What I am pointing to is that, like Pandora's box, hope emerges quietly, almost surreptitiously at the end, after all the evils have come forth. I don't think the non-Austrians understand the positive effects of recessions on startup businesses. As for the Austrians, for them it's the destruction, not the creation that is good.

Gabriel - Thank you. Will test out Jing for windows.

spencer - Yes, easily--but you have to also create the graphic to add the text box. If you only have the graphic, you have to use something pro-neolithic, such as Paint.

I'm assuming Skitch is primarily valuable to annotate another's graphic.

It isn't just Reagan.
Consistently, over the past 50+ years, Republican'ts have presided over (fair and honest) worse economies than Democrats.

I have yet to find an indicator that doesn't suggest Republican'ts are bad for your wealth.

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