Iraq Goes Pear-Shaped

Spencer Ackerman:

Yeah, The End of the Sadrist Ceasefire - The Washington Independent - U.S. news and politics - washingtonindependent.com: Aaaaaaaand so much for the Sadrist ceasefire. According to The New York Times, Iraqi and U.S. (!) forces are now battling the Mahdi Army in Baghdad -- and around the country. And it's not even just the Sadrists who are fighting.

Heavy fighting broke out Tuesday in Basra and Baghdad, after Iraqi ground forces and helicopters mounted a major operation in Basra against Shiite militias, including the Mahdi Army, whose months-long cease-fire is credited with reducing the level of violence during the troop surge. There were also serious clashes in the southern cities of Kut and Hilla.

In Basra, Iraq's most important oil-exporting center, thousands of Iraqi government soldiers and police moved into the city around 5 a.m. and engaged in pitched battles with Shiite militia members that have taken over big swathes of that city.

What appeared to be American or British jets also soared through the skies, witnesses said, providing air support. The operation, which senior Iraqi officials had been signaling for weeks, is considered so important by the Iraqi government that Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki, who went to Basra on Monday, intended to personally direct the fighting, several Iraqi officials said.

I recommend a two-pronged strategy. First, begin drinking heavily. Second, withdraw immediately from Iraq. Consider this:

"We are doing this in reaction to the unprovoked military operations against the Mahdi Army," said a Mahdi commander who identified himself as Abu Mortada. "The U.S., the Iraqi government and SCIRI are against us," he said, referring to a rival Shia group. "They are trying to finish us. They want power for the Iraqi government and SCIRI." But Basra has been riven by violent power struggles among the Mahdi Army and local Shiite rivals, such as one controlled by the Fadhila political party. In the weeks leading up to the operation, Iraqi officials indicated that part of the operation would be aimed at the Fadhila groups, who are widely believed to be in control of Basra's lucrative port operations and other parts of the city.

That doesn't sound like "civil disobedience." That sounds like an intifada. If it doesn't get tamped down like right now, it represents an overturning of the creaking apple cart known as the Baghdad political process, and the replacement of the Shiite political leadership. If there's a silver lining, it's that here in the States it's Happy Hour.

I still haven't wrapped my mind around the fact that we are providing air support to a group called "The Supreme Council of the Islamic Revolution"...

Comments

[Steven Palmer Peterson]

We have to provide air cover for The Supreme Council of the Islamic Revolution because they're on the no-fly list and thus can't provide air cover for themselves.

[larrybob]

the supreme council for the islamic revolution in iraq changed their name last spring to supreme iraqi islamic council. maybe this cosmetic change allowed gwb to allow for the air cover; a favor for a favor.

[anne]

We have to leave Iraq, completely and immediately, but there will be no leaving.

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/03/25/washington/25policy.html

March 25, 2008

Bush Given Iraq War Plan With a Steady Troop Level
By STEVEN LEE MYERS and THOM SHANKER

Troop levels in Iraq would remain nearly the same through 2008 as at any time during five years of war, senior officials said.

[Tragedy continued; to no surprise, only sadness.]

[Neal]

We have been bribing our enemies and enemies of the Iraqi government to not attack us/them. There are US Army and CIA bagmen that only have the job of delivering millions and millions of dollars to miltia leaders to try to keep the lid on. That and partitioning have been the key to the success of the surge, not the brilliance of the strategy.

Several problems are cropping up--the leaders of the militias have been pocketing more and more of the bribe and not delivering it the individual soldier. Anger is building over this and feeding more "true believers" to the firebrands instead of the wealthy bribe takers.

Second, around Basra, the ultimate stake is the huge oil wealth--a few billions in bribes is meaningless alongside the potential wealth at $100/barrel. So in addition to ideology differences with the central government, there are enormous fortunes to be made. (By the way, where is all of that oil money going to?)

Maybe to address the question of the untrustworthy bribe-taker, we should enroll all of the potential milia members into a "social security" program where the milita memebrs are paid on the basis of their threat! Or maybe we should have let the standing Iraqi army stand from the beginning.

[me]

Are these the same guys?

"The success of the US "surge" strategy in Iraq may be under threat as Sunni militia employed by the US to fight al-Qaida are warning of a national strike because they are not being paid regularly.

Leading members of the 80,000-strong Sahwa, or awakening, councils have said they will stop fighting unless payment of their $10 a day (£5) wage is resumed. The fighters are accusing the US military of using them to clear al-Qaida militants from dangerous areas and then abandoning them.

A telephone survey by GuardianFilms for Channel 4 News reveals that out of 49 Sahwa councils four with more than 1,400 men have already quit, 38 are threatening to go on strike and two already have.

Improved security in Iraq in recent months has been attributed to a combination of the surge, the truce observed by Moqtada al-Sadr's Mahdi army, and the effectiveness and commitment of the councils, which are drawn from Sunni Arabs and probably the most significant factor, according to most analysts."

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/mar/21/iraq.alqaida