Atlantic Monthly Death Spiral Watch (Jeffrey Goldberg Edition)

Why oh why can't we have a better press corps?

But Jeffrey Goldberg says:

Jeffrey Goldberg: Obama at the Western Wall: It appears that Barack Obama has a busy day tomorrow in Israel, including the obligatory visits to Yad Vashem and Sderot, and, as a nightcap, a visit to the Western Wall, where, a friend of mine suggests, Obama will undoubtedly spend his time praying for the Jews to leave him alone...

I genuinely do not know whether Jeffrey Goldberg doesn't know that American Jewish support for Barack Obama is solid, or knows but thinks he has to strike a blow for the Republicans by trying to mislead his readers.

Comments

[Ken Houghton]

32% is about 10% higher, iirc, than W had in 2004, and 11% higher than his 2000 take.

I'd say a 50% increase in Republican support is a "problem,"

[But that problem is not what Goldberg is talking about. Goldberg is saying that Obama is praying that the Jews "will just leave him alone." If American Jews simply did not vote in November, that would make Obama a weaker, not a stronger candidate. Goldberg doesn't want you to realize that...]

[John Emerson]

Republicans are always trying to chip away at the black and Jewish vote. That means that if they get a fifth of the black vote or a third of the Jewish vote, they've attained their objective. The baseline is the average of previous elections, not 50%. For the Republicans, slightly weakening the Democrats in a key demographic is a victory.

If it seems that the Republicans might attain their very limited objective a reporter can report a "victory" for the Republicans. If he does this in a sophisticated report that's meta all the way through and makes it clear what's being reported, there's nothing wrong with that.

But if they report it confusingly without explaining the context ("Democrats losing Jewish votes"), on the one hand they get a "story", and on the other they help the Republicans with their victory narrative. I believe that we've had stories about Jews and blacks moving toward the Republican Party every election since -- ?? -- 1980?

[Exactly...]

[Mbuna]

Brad, re:"a friend of mine suggests, Obama will undoubtedly spend his time praying for the Jews to leave him alone..." The proper response is "Oy" and laugh.

Goldberg is making an inside Jewish joke here, and if my wife wasn't Jewish I wouldn't have gotten it either. This is the kind of thing my wife says about Jews with regularity. Cultural self-deprecating humor?

[I know the codes. It's more anti-Black than Jewish self-deprecating...]

[Total]

Jews went for Kerry 74-25 Bush. So it could, actually, be a problem for Obama.

[That's pretty stupid: the "it" that is a problem would not be solved if Jewish Americans "just left Obama alone." if Jews as a group didn't vote this November, *that* would be a problem for Obama. Jews are a source of strength, not weakness.

Likudniks, on the other hand...]

[Joe S.]

From what I remember, Jews tend to vote more Democratic than they poll. Not that the Jewish vote is all that important anyway, outside of FL and maybe OH. Jews are urban creatures, and they tend to live in deep blue states.
It's Jewish money that's at stake. My people cut checks even more compulsively than they vote. And that is far more evenly split than the Jewish vote.

[The money people I talk to say that that is not true at all...]

[jerry]

I think four folks have politely told you your reasoning may be in error. I'm not sure what's so stupid about Total's post, but hey, I ain't the smartest rugelach in the pack.

[And John Emerson has nailed it correctly.

If American Jews "left Barack Obama alone"--i.e., didn't vote in the fall--Obama would be a weaker candidate. So it's not something Obama is going to pray for.]

[Mel Gibson's Dad]

Left out of those polls is the breakdown between regular, almost normal Jews and the Jewy-Jew-Jew-Jews.