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August 06, 2008

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To symbolize the task ahead, Carter installed a solar system in the White House. And to symbolize his approach to energy problem, Reagan immediately ripped it out.

To symbolize the task ahead, Carter installed a solar system in the White House. And to symbolize his approach to energy problem, Reagan immediately ripped it out.

To symbolize the task ahead, Carter installed a solar system in the White House. And to symbolize his approach to energy problem, Reagan immediately ripped it out.

Carter understood what lay ahead. Efforts to deal with it ran contrary to the interests of too many powerful groups, and he was unable to win past their efforts to derail a shift toward a radical change in energy use.

One error in substance, though an understandable one, was to focus on energy supply as fragile. In the intervening years, supply problems have been the exception, rather than the rule. The eagerness to ridicule peak-oil analysis, rather than simply disagree with it, shows the eagerness to deny overall supply risks. The problem is broader than just whether their is sufficient supply. It extends to geopolitics, the balance of payments, global climate change, air and water quality, farming practices - the list is long. For every item on the list, we'd have been better of is Carter had prevailed against oil interests. As in much else, Carter's failure was not of understanding or vision or policy, but rather of politics and salesmanship.

It's sad that the one politician whose really wanted to lead us in the right direction is now vilified, while those who took us in the easy direction are lauded as great leaders.

Yes, I remember.

yes, I remember.

yes, I remember.

Our environmental, energy and current account circumstances have deteriorated since 1977. Has the effort to denigrate conservation deteriorated? No.

www.time.com/time/politics/article/0,8599,1829354,00.html

What were the effects of Carter policies? From 1978 to 1983, US demand for oil dropped by over 20%. By 1983, OPEC was cutting back oil production in an attempt to maintain prices. By 1985, OPEC had lost its power to control oil price. It would be 2000 before US oil demand returned to 1978 levels.

The problem for Big Oil was losing Big money. Starting in 1981 at a peak of 324 oil refineries, Big Oil closed the oldest and most inefficient refineries to reach a total of 149 US refineries in 2007. Carter's energy policy of conservation, efficiency and oil alternatives was successful by almost every standard except oil company profits Record profits did not return until the latest oil shock.

From 1979 to 1980, the Consumer Price Index increased by 13.5%.
From 1982 to 1983, the CPI increased by only 3.2 %.
The oil shock was over and disappeared until recent demand has created the current oil shock.

While I agree we had a serious leadership deficit, I don't agree that was the main problem.
What could have been added to the end of that speech;

"Or alternatively we can just press the pedal to the metal and drive off into the happy sunset oblivious to everything just said."

The American people joyfully picked that one.

I could never understand why Carter got such criticism. At worst, it seemed to me, he could be accused of having good plans but not being able to get them implemented. In my political time (starting with Nixon vs. Humphrey in 1968) he seemed like the closest thing to an honest politician to me. Sure, he made some mistakes as everyone does, but it wasn't for lack of working hard to find and do the right thing.

Jim V - when I watched the video, I realized part of why Carter got such criticism. He was a really crappy speaker. Look how he starts his speech: "Tonight I want to have an unpleasant talk with you" Yuck. It makes *me* want to wriggle away, and I agree with him! His delivery is uninspiring as well - flat, repetitive, lots of ums and stuttering.

If I am right, there is some good news here. Obama is an excellent speaker, and would never tell us he wanted to have an "unpleasant talk" with us. Therefore, he should be much better at persuading us to do the things we need to do.

***Our decision about energy will test the character of the American people*** The character of the American people was in fact tested. Our test answer. Fire Carter and hire a happy talking nitwit. Our character was tested and we failed the test ... dismally.

I agree with vtcodger. There was nothing wrong at all with Carter's diagnosis, and policy prescriptions. However, he was a very bad salesman of those ideas. As a small town guy, he was a "lead by example" sort of guy, soft-spoken, walking the walk. These are good things, but they don't sell well in the national media stage.

There is a much better approach now current. One where we paint a vision of a future that is different, but better for everyone, or mostly everyone. There will be new jobs created that will more than replace the old ones. There will be new technologies to bring to market, and plenty of business to engage in, as well as cleaner air, cleaner water, not to mention an Arctic icepack and glaciers still plentiful.

His 1979 so-called "malaise" speech is also quite brilliant and prescient.

But do not canonize him yet: remember the Carter Doctrine?

The saddest part of all this is how much we have known for over thirty years and done next-to-nothing.

Next stop - Walter Mondale's speech on what to do about large Federal deficits.

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