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September 28, 2008

Hold Your Nose and Vote for Paulson-Dodd-Frank

The Swedish model is better, but doing nothing is like a poke in the eye from a Lawn Dart(TM).

On KRON 4 at 5 for two minutes (unless we get bumped by the announcement of Bristol Palin's wedding, that is).

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Why is the Paulson plan better than doing nothing?

Anything that the US governmnt does within the next 4 months will be done by the Bush administration.

Why do you imagine that, given the chance to do something, they might possibly do something that's better than doing nothing?

In 2005 or so we chose not to give them the Social Security money, when Bush promised that if we gave him the money he'd come up with a plan for what to do with it.

Are we going to give him the money now? Whatever for?

My call right now is hold up the possibility of a major bailout in January and hold out until then. The hold-ups: 1. Paulsen did not distinguish himself as the architect of the plan, and he has no business overseeing its execution, both for performance and conflict-of-interest reasons. 2. The willingness of the govt to save ailing banks alone is already a strong signal that should stall bank-runs. 3. Neither the P nor the PDF plan currently has any effective safeguards against massive fraud, and the vultures are already circling to get a fat piece of the pie. 4. The balance of rushing this through Congress and getting it wrong vs delaying and getting it right too late is currently in favor of delaying, even from a non-partisan perspective. From a partisan Democratic perspective, it's even more tilted in favor of holding out.

What about the Norwegian model? It was different from Swedish because share capital was written down to zero before commiting public funds. This was necessary for public support, too. The banking crisis costed less in Norway than in many other countries.

http://www.norges-bank.no/templates/article____13822.aspx

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