Recession Watch
A recession:

It's already as deep in the unemployment metric as the 1980 recession. IIRC, back then Marty Feldstein led the Business Cycle Dating Committee and called the recession before the 1980 election.
It will be interesting to see what Bob Hall's BCDC does this time...










" It will be interesting to see what Bob Hall's BCDC does this time... "
This is a rhetorical question, right?
Posted by: allan_in_upstate | September 05, 2008 at 08:32 AM
Can you tell us all what you mean by "deep in the unemployment metric?"
[A recession is not a time when unemployment is high, but a time when the unemployment rate is rising rapidly...]
Because, according to the graph, the unemployment number was far higher in the late seventies. I recall reading some discussions on how these measures change over time, and why it's misleading to compare 1980 numbers to 2008 numbers, but I don't remember the argument. Do you have a simple answer to why 6% unemployment now is really worse than the 9-10% unemployment figures of yesteryear?
I'd appreciate being taken to school on this one!
Posted by: br | September 05, 2008 at 09:43 AM
Surely you mean "ECONOMY PRESIDENT FAIL"?
Posted by: Alex | September 05, 2008 at 10:25 AM
Wasn't the Captain the last to know when the Titanic hit the iceberg?
Now that the economists know, it is only a matter of months before George Bush catches up with the news.
(BR: as I remember, unemployment grew substantially worse by '82-'83, but the recession was called in '80. Those were the years I did bankruptcy accounting, lots of it. Course the record prime rate and record inflation rates were an aggravating factor we do not have here...)
Posted by: save_the_rustbelt | September 05, 2008 at 11:30 AM
Ahh, the early 80's and Paul Volker's twin recessions. Killing that inflation. What a great time to be getting out of school and joining the labor market. Personally, I've always thought it was one long recession and that they defined them into 2 recessions so no one would call it a depression.
Posted by: Frank the sales forecaster | September 05, 2008 at 11:40 AM