We Are in the Recession

James Poterba just emailed, and now the NBER is live on Marketwatch:

U.S. recession began in December 2007, NBER says: By Rex Nutting: WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The U.S. economy entered a recession in December 2007, a committee of economists at the private National Bureau of Economic Research said Monday. The economy reached a peak in December and has been declining since, according to the business cycle dating committee of the NBER. The committee does not judge a recession as two consecutive quarterly declines in gross domestic product; rather, it looks at four key monthly economic indicators, including employment, industrial output and sales. Employment peaked in December.

I think that this was the right way to call it...

Comments

[Neal]

Finally--after months of being told it ain't so, now we can believe our lying wallets!!!

[bakho]

Recession can be used to put political pressure on a recalcitrant administration to do the right thing. In this case, the R word comes too late.

It would be more useful to have a political dialogue that more closely tracked the economic fortunes.

[SvN]

It is rare for the committee to take a full year to call a recession. One wonders what the committee learned after the election that helped them make up their minds. True, the growth in GDP during the first two quarters was usual, but we've known about that for some time.

[anne]

http://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2007/11/can-we-retire-b.html

November 10, 2007

How has the New York Times managed to pick Bob Herbert out of the 75 million liberal adults in America? It is a mystery.

-- Brad DeLong

[Possibly, as I suggested at the time Herbert was doing something socially useful, quite social useful, which is why I am so pleased to read Herbert in the Times.]

[anne]

Correcting, the date of Brad DeLong's complaint about Herbert was November 10, 2007, the same day the Times column appeared. I expect paying attention to Herbert then might have helped.

[allan_in_upstate]

NBER, a Bureau of whiners.

[Kevin]

And it's official: 3 times the nation has elected a President Bush & 3 recessions during Bush electoral terms. Just coincidence? Less than 5% likely.

[nathan]

This is an example of why more may be reading The Onion as opposed to NBER.

[MattYoung]

My theory says the time to detect a recession should be nearly constant.

[TJ]

When can we expect them to call the depression?

[Jared]

Announced just days after black Friday - coincidence?