GI:
Commodity prices: Inflation lessons from the Asian crisis | The Economist: ust as the plunge in the price of oil in 1998 did not signal deflationary pressure in America, its rise today does not signal inflationary pressure here, unless it works its way into expectations and wages, of which there’s no sign yet. (The 0.4% rise in hourly wages in January looks weird; for now, I’d discount it.) In fact, it could do the opposite: by draining more American purchasing power to overseas suppliers, higher oil prices leave less money to spend on stuff made in America. (America is a net food exporter so higher food prices are positive for American growth.) If the Fed were to tighten monetary policy today in response to Asia’s inflation problem, it could be the opposite of the mistake it made in 1998, compounding a deflationary shock at a time when the economy is significantly below potential.
