The most recent Gallup Presidential Election Trial Heat Results: Barack Obama vs. Mitt Romney was a very, very strong day for Obama:
Gallup reports:
Gallup October 1-7: Obama 50%, Romney 45%
Gallup October 4-6: Obama 47%, Romney 47%
Gallup September 30-October 2: Obama 50%, Romney 45%
Since Gallup on October 6--the span that includes 9/30-10/2 and 10/4-10/6--was 49-46, that tells us that the October 3 results were roughly 52-46 Obama-Romney…
Since Obama gained from October 6 to October 7, when 9/30 dropped out and 10/7 was added, that tells us that 10/7 was stronger for Obama and weaker for Romney than 9/30. If 9/30 was the average for 9/30-10/2--50-45--that tells us that…
October 7 was roughly 57-38 Obama-Romney!
(If 9/30 was weaker than 50-45 for Obama and 10/1 and 10/2 were stronger, 10/7 was less of a pro-Obama signal. If 9/30 was stronger and 10/1 and 10/2 weaker than 50-45, then 10/7 was an even stronger pro-Obama signal.)
This is why Gallup does not release its daily tracking poll results--the sample sizes are so small that there is so much statistical noise in them that they are of little value...
