Josh Jordan: November 6, 2012 3:23 P.M.
Three Takeaways from the Final Polls: Of all current national polls Obama has a microscopic six-tenths of a point lead…. Rasmussen showed Romney moving back into a one-point lead, and the Battleground poll remained a tie while Romney surged with independents…. The Gallup party-identification survey of October showed an electorate that was a one-point Republican advantage, which would seal a Romney victory and possibly a very emphatic victory…. Rasmussen released their October survey for party identification and it was even better news for the GOP…. While I think that a 5.8-point advantage is a bit too rosy for the GOP this election, if it’s anywhere close to right, Romney will have a resounding victory tonight.
These three points are why I am still optimistic that Romney is going to be elected president….... Team Obama knows their early-vote leads are tenuous at best. Just as the NCAA tournament has its fair share of bracket-busters, the GOP electorate this year may just be remembered as the ultimate “model-buster” for poll analysts.
November 5, 2012 1:00 P.M.:
Return of the Independents: The days after Hurricane Sandy brought a small bump in President Obama’s numbers… easily explained by the positive television coverage Obama received about his initial statements on relief efforts and with his flyover of New Jersey with Chris Christie…. Over the last few days the independents have been returning back to Romney, however, indicating that the final vote Tuesday might revert back to polling from the days just before Sandy made landfall. Rasmussen has seen Romney’s lead with independents jump from three points to fifteen…. If Romney wins independents by eight points this year, Obama’s win in 2008 drops from 7.2 points to 2.6 points, even with a repeat wave-election turnout for Democrats. If the crowds Romney drew in Ohio and Pennsylvania are any indication, GOP enthusiasm is going to surprise a lot of pundits… erase the seven-point turnout advantage Democrats had in 2008. If both of those things happen, Romney is not only in position to win, but has a chance to win big.
NOVEMBER 5, 2012 3:00 A.M.:
Romney Wins on Tuesday State by state, here’s how it’ll happen: I’m going to make my predictions on this race based on more than just the polls…. [T]his race is going to be drastically different from the one we saw in 2008 — Romney’s crowd sizes, volunteer efforts, fundraising efforts, and a change in the Obama campaign from presenting the candidate as an uplifting symbol of hope to presenting him as a beleaguered president trying to claw his way to reelection…. Romney will squeeze out a popular-vote win of about two percentage points: 50.5 to 48.5…. This margin will be enough for Romney to win the Electoral College. Just last week, I would have predicted a slightly larger victory, but Hurricane Sandy cut a little bit of the edge Romney had by providing Obama with one last chance to leverage the advantage of the incumbency…. [But] Republicans will pour out to vote in the numbers pollsters such as Gallup, Rasmussen, and Pew have predicted….
COLORADO: Colorado will be a comfortable win for Romney of three to four points. The early voting has been a reversal from 2008, with Republicans outnumbering Democrats….
FLORIDA: This is a state that a lot of pollsters and insiders have given to Romney for a while….
IOWA… is going to be a very, very close state on Election Day, but Romney can overcome the early-voting deficit here. Winning Iowa opens up the map for Romney a lot, and this is going to be a big win on Tuesday for Romney.
NEVADA… has the potential to be a big upset on Tuesday, I’m giving it to Obama.
NEW HAMPSHIRE: It is no mistake that Romney is holding a final rally in New Hampshire on Monday, and this is a key state despite its having just four electoral votes. The late push should add to support from New Hampshire’s large block of independents that will vote on Tuesday, giving a small but important win to Romney.
NORTH CAROLINA: I believe Romney wins fairly easily….
OHIO: The keystone of the whole election is Ohio…. I still believe Romney will win Ohio. The early voting looks substantially different than it did in 2008….
PENNSYLVANIA: Romney’s making a big move into Pennsylvania in the final week is by design. The state does not have the large early-voting program that states such as Ohio and Florida have…. I think Obama holds on because of the heavy margins he will get from the Philly area.
VIRGINIA… while it will be tight, Romney will eke out a win in Virginia.
WISCONSIN: The recall elections in 2010 and 2011 led Republicans to build a massive get-out-the-vote machine that has now been tested…. I believe Romney will carry it thanks to very strong turnout among the base.
My final Electoral College prediction is 295 for Romney to 243 for Obama…. Romney is going to shock the conventional wisdom set by the media and be announced as the next president of the United States.
1.5 posts a day up until 3:23 PM on November 6. And since then? Complete radio silence.
