Nate Cohn:
Republicans Have Problems With White Voters, Too: Republicans are focusing on their poor performance with the burgeoning Latino population; even Sean Hannity says he's "evolved" on immigration reform…. Romney’s strong national showing among white voters was almost exclusively driven by historic support from Southern and Appalachian white voters…. Outside the South, Romney’s performance among white voters was anything but historic. He ran behind Bush’s tallies in most of the northern half of the United States…. [I]n overwhelmingly white states like Iowa, New Hampshire, and Wisconsin, Obama ultimately won these three states by 5.6 to 6.9 points, even though Bush never lost any by more than 1.3 points…. [C]onsider changes in Democratic support among white voters between '04 and '12 in the nine states where whites represent at least 85 percent of the population…. outside of the South, Romney ran behind Bush among white voters, but he made up for it in Appalachia and the rest of the South…. [I]t's clear from the results in relatively white counties (80 percent or more) like Jefferson and Larimier, CO, or Delaware, OH, that Obama's big gains over Kerry's performance in well-educated areas aren't just a product of demographic changes.
Making matters worse for Republicans, Democratic Senate candidates ran as well as or ahead of the president in white areas in just about every competitive state, including Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Florida, and Ohio…. [T]he GOP's issues extend beyond specific problems with Romney or the unique appeal of the president. This particular writer can't judge whether Republicans were hurt more by abortion, tax policy, or something else, but it's clear that Romney's issue among rural, white northerners wasn't just Bain Capital, and his problem in affluent suburbs wasn't just his pledge to end funding to Planned Parenthood.
If Romney's historic performance among white voters manifested evenly across the electoral map, then Republicans could justifiably consider their “demographic challenge” as their primary obstacle to victory in 2016…. [T]urning "lean Republican" states like Arkansas, West Virginia, Kentucky, and Missouri into "solid Republican" states just doesn't matter.
