Duncan Black watches the retreating detachments of savvy non-quantitative journalists shivver in their straw boots and rag shoes:
This was my favorite of the cycle.
“I think more than any other race I’ve covered this is one where both sides genuinely seem to believe they’re going to win. That’s different,” ABC News correspondent Jon Karl said. “Given that, it’s hard for somebody covering the race to make a call. I’m completely confused. I have no idea who’s going to win. And I usually have a sense of who’s going to win.”
I never knew what was going to happen in this election. The available data said that Obama would probably win. The data could have been wrong. But absent some truly inside information - such as 1 million Mormons secretly moved to Ohio in 2011 so they could vote - there was no other way make any judgment about the election. That reporters really think the people whose job it is to spin are giving them important true information, especially when it's at odds with all of the other information, is incredible.
Political journalism filters for stupid.