Senate: Democrats win 1-3 seats. D/I 55 +/1, R 45 +/- 1 seats, Democrats retain control. The poll-based median Senate outcome is 55 Democratic/Independent seats, 45 Republican seats. It is very focused: 85% of the probability is concentrated in the range of 54-56 D/I seats.
90% Democratic. Connecticut (Murphy), Massachusetts (Warren), Missouri (McCaskill), North Dakota (Heitkamp), Virginia (Kaine).
81-89% Democratic. Indiana (Donnelly), Wisconsin (Baldwin).
71-80% Democratic. Montana (Tester).
75% Republican. Nevada (Heller).
90% Republican: Arizona (Flake).