LIE!! --> USA TODAY: "USA TODAY is proud of the polling it has done in partnership with The Gallup Organization for the past 20 years." TRUTH --> "USA TODAY is hideously embarrassed by the extraordinarily inaccurate and biased polling it has published as a result of its partnership with the Gallup Organization. It promises to try to do better in the future."
Ezra Klein: After ‘the end of big government liberalism’: "Republicans swear to protect Medicare and Social Security…. Democrats voted to make the George W. Bush tax rates permanent for almost all Americans. This is not a stable peace. The Democrats have mostly won the debate over what the government should do, while the Republicans have mostly won the debate over how much the government should tax. Sadly, the two sides of that equation don’t come anywhere near to adding up…. For all the sound, fury and impassioned promises of huge deficit reduction, in the end both Republican leaders swore that everyone would get their benefits. The savings, we were told, would come from painless mechanisms…. Democrats aren’t much better on taxes, but they don’t need to be. Historically, it is much easier to raise taxes by a half percentage point of gross domestic product than to kick tens of millions off public health insurance."
CSI:CIO: Assigning your CIO the job of hedging against tail risk when the major tail risk turns out to be that your CIO office goes insane...
- The CIO curve trade that never was | FT Alphaville
- JPM task force stunningly arrives at same conclusion as JPM chairman and CEO | FT Alphaville
- The London Whale, an oral history | FT Alphaville
- Did the CIO have a Kodak moment? Like, literally? | FT Alphaville
- The Whale and the P&L (and the RWA) | FT Alphaville
David Keohane: Koo, Posen, and other Abenomics dissenters
David Wessel: Full Transcript of the Geithner Interview
Ryan Avent: Central banking: Into the storm: "WHEN 2007 began, America's economy was growing strongly…. In the summer of that year, housing-market troubles precipitated the beginning of the financial crisis as the market for subprime-backed securities evaporated. And by the end of 2007 America was in recession…. With the release of the transcripts, most of the world of economics journalism has begun hunting for evidence the Fed was underestimating the lurking danger. Such passages make for gripping reading…. We all know what was to come, and so every optimistic statement, every jocular dismissal of the financial threat, looks like a damning failure of foresight…. [T]he Fed was not really that far behind the curve in recognising the potential for major financial market disruption…. The Fed does lag behind the curve in terms of its financial-market interventions, but (I think) for understandable reasons. The Fed was concerned about overreaction, both because of moral-hazard worries and because of the potential for a public backlash…. What is perhaps less forgiveable is the Fed's tendancy to ignore its role in markets and the economy in analysing potential outcomes…. [W]hat you don't much hear from FOMC members is the view that recession prevention should therefore be paramount, lest the Fed find itself needing to prop up the whole of the banking system (which eventually it did, of course). I am surprised at how long it takes the Fed to grow really concerned that financial troubles might bleed into the broader economy."
Sarah Kliff: Can Oregon save American health care?
Michael Derby: Read the Full Fed Transcripts From 2007 http://federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomchistorical2007.htm
Jeffrey Frankel: Debt Ceilings, Bombs, Cliffs and the Trillion Dollar Coin
Gregory Meyer: Agricultural traders in a sweat over US drought: "The heat is gone and the shock has faded, but a terrible US drought remains…. While snow and rain have relieved some areas, the majority of the Midwest and high plains regions are still suffering drought. States such as Nebraska and Kansas show no sign of improvement, while the situation in Texas is set to worsen…. Prices, still high, have steadied as traders take comfort in a large, impending Brazilian crop. But another dry year – or a surprisingly wet one – in the world’s biggest grain exporter could end this period of calm…. [T]he US remains a key source of surplus grain and oilseeds for importers from China to Egypt. Its drought in 2012 triggered alarm at the UN Food and Agriculture Organization and in the World Bank as policy makers fretted over price volatility and the possibility of panic buying…. Last year’s drought led to a 13 per cent annual decline in the US corn crop and a 3 per cent smaller soyabean harvest. Now fields of hard red winter wheat, planted in autumn and harvested around July, are in trouble."