Attention Conservation Notice: 2600 words reiterating the points made by Reinhart and Tashiro (and also by others like Raghu Rajan) that the East Asian financial crisis of 1997-98 appears to have triggered a permanent downward trend break in economic growth on the Asian Pacific Rim.
November 3-5, 2013: Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco Asia Economic Policy Conference 2013
Brad DeLong: Comment on Carmen M. Reinhart and Takeshi Tashiro, "Crowding Out Redefined: The Role of Reserve Accumulation"
Let me second what Alan Taylor said. This, by Carmen Reinhart and Takeshi Tashiro, is another high-quality paper. And it shares the four standard high-quality characteristics of Carmen Reinhart papers: 1. It takes data that we have not looked at before or that we have not looked at in this way before. 2. It presents the data in a very interesting and thoughtful manner that makes us think very hard about important questions. 3. It does not focus on either the trend or the cycle exclusively, but looks hard at the interrelationships between them--interrelationships between the cycle and the trend that are traditionally ruled out, or at least not at the forefront of, our back-of-our-envelope first-cut. 4. It does not bow to current theoretical perceptions, but attempts to focus our attention on what the important and interesting features of the economy are.