88 entries categorized "Regions: Middle East"

July 16, 2008

What All Schoolchildren Learn/Those to Whom Evil Is Done/Do Evil in Return

Both the Israeli and the Palestinian governments have very bloody hands.

But there is a special circle of hell reserved for those who gleefully boast of their bloody hands--like Mahmoud Abbas today.

Dan Nexon:

The Duck of Minerva: That's just sick, or "we haven't had a good Israel-Palestine flamewar here yet... let's hope I don't start one": I don't post a great deal on Israel-Palestine issues. I basically want to see a peace deal that involves an equitable variant of the two-state solution and that empowers moderates on both sides. I don't have much sympathy for those who want to paint the conflict in black-and-white terms, and I get sick of the way that advocates of one side or the other spotlight the various infractions of their opponents.

But f*ck it, this is just sick:

Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas, who is currently visiting Malta, welcomed the prisoner exchange and sent his greetings to Kuntar upon his release from Israeli prison. Abbas's Fatah party organized a rally in Ramallah.... "This is an historic victory over Israeli arrogance," said Ahmed Abdel Rahman, a top Fatah official and advisor to Abbas. He described Kuntar as a "big struggler."...

To understand what's wrong with this picture, read this....

The Israeli government should never have agreed to this swap. No matter what the Jewish religion holds about the remains of its adherents, they've taken another step towards... demonstrating that violence is the best way to extract concessions from them...

June 25, 2008

Joe Klein Is Shrill!!

In the immortal words of Keanu Reeves: "Whoa!!"

Joe Klein:

Surge Protection - Swampland - TIME: The notion that we could just waltz in and inject democracy into an extremely complicated, devout and ancient culture smacked--still smacks--of neocolonialist legerdemain. The fact that a great many Jewish neoconservatives--people like Joe Lieberman and the crowd over at Commentary--plumped for this war, and now for an even more foolish assault on Iran, raised the question of divided loyalties: using U.S. military power, U.S. lives and money, to make the world safe for Israel. And then there is the question--made manifest by the no-bid contracts offered U.S. oil companies by the Iraqis--of two oil executives, Bush and Cheney, securing a new source of business for their Texas buddies...

I really don't think it works that way. It's not that loyalties are in any sense "divided." Instead, it's an inability to even think of the idea that (interest of Likud) ≠ (interest of Israel) ≠ (interest of United States) or the idea that (interest of Texas oil barons) ≠ (interest of United States of America)...

And Andrew Sullivan is shrill too:

The Daily Dish | By Andrew Sullivan: Max Boot is admirably candid. He helps us realize that this election is indeed at root a decision on whether to keep troops in Iraq for the next century or more:

In order to build on the success that General Petraeus and his soldiers have had, we need to maintain a long-term commitment in Iraq - for 100 years if need be, as John McCain has said. That doesn’t mean 100 years of fighting; clearly, that would be unsustainable. It does mean a long-term troop presence designed to reassure Iraqis of our commitment to their security against an array of enemies.

Their security? Heh. In fifty years' time, the Iraqis will not be able to defend themselves against Iran? Or Syria? Please. If they've managed this much progress in the last year, we could be almost out of there in the next president's term of office. Even under Saddam, the Iraqis weren't defeated by the Iranian mullahs. Notice also how a few months of relative calm are instantly deployed to justify a century of occupation. Can you imagine what the next platform for invasion will be? And on what planet does Boot live to think that permanent US troops in the heart of the Muslim Middle East will not require endless, endless fighting?

This obviously isn't about Iraq, as we are fast discovering. It's about an ever greater American entanglement in the Middle East in part to secure oil supplies we need to wean ourselves off and in part a foolish attempt to protect Israel. And Joe Klein is in no way engaging in anti-Semitism - please - by pointing out the increasingly obvious fact that the Iraq war was in part launched to assist Israel (even though many Israelis were against it):

You want evidence of divided loyalties? How about the "benign domino theory" that so many Jewish neoconservatives talked to me about--off the record, of course--in the runup to the Iraq war, the idea that Israel's security could be won by taking out Saddam, which would set off a cascade of disaster for Israel's enemies in the region? As my grandmother would say, feh! Do you actually deny that the casus belli that dare not speak its name wasn't, as I wrote in February 2003, a desire to make the world safe for Israel?

June 02, 2008

DeLong Smackdown Watch (Joint New York Times Death Spiral/Edward Luttwak/Clark Hoyt/David Shipley/Greg Mankiw Edition)

Bruce writes:

Grasping Reality with Both Hands: The Semi-Daily Journal Economist Brad DeLong: I do think this really encapsulates the way that Brad's obsession with the press corps sometimes borders on, well, obsession (by which I mean that it's unreasonable in the standard of behavior it demands, even if based on real failings and legitimate frustrations)....

[T]he New York Times... [is] just [a] newspaper, after all--one that puts it pants on one leg at a time. The editors went to a leading academic, who has both a deep knowledge of policy and a sterling reputation among his peers (not to mention a long trail of peer-reviewed publications). And they published (after Mankiw wrote) a piece that contained no factual errors--just a logical flaw. Is it really the job of a press corp to correct the best and the brightest among economists when they make logical errors? Should the science reporters be checking all the equations of a string theorist before reporting on an important new paper?

I think the relevant concept here is division of labor. The Times's job is to find interesting writers who have established themselves in their fields as people worth listening to. And then the writers are supposed to live up to the standards of excellence they are thought to embody.... [T]he New York Times isn't peer reviewed. And no daily newspaper could be.... [T]he Times is a fine paper, [but] it's still, on a very good day, only the first draft of history. And the first draft of argument too....

It's way way too easy to criticize the press everytime the press publishes something stupid. But the fallacy here comes back to the division of labor.... Even a team of 10 polymaths... could not really have the knowledge to seriously engage a bunch of subject-matter experts to push them to state all hidden premises and address all lurking counter-arguments. And even if ten such people could be found... is their highest and best use really editing the New York Times op-ed page...?

[T]he Times I think pretty reasonably reflects the slice of reaonably well-educated, affluent, and over-self-satisfied America that comprises its primary readership.... [W]ould we really want to live in a world of a "better press corps?" What it boils down to is the very best and brightest devoting themselves to popular journalism--and not specialization. If all the best aircraft engineers are fact-checking the occasional op-ed piece on flying, would you trust the planes that the former fact-checkers are engineering?

It is, I think, a matter of line drawing. For thirty years now Republican politicians have been proposing tax cuts and claiming that either (a) they don't need to be funded because America today is on the far sie of the Laffer curve, or (b) they can be funded via a magic asterisk in the budget--by cutting federal spending "waste, fraud, and abuse." Surely this argument is past its sell-by date? Surely it is thirty years' rotten, and stinks? Surely there are four questions that an editor should ask:

  • He or she should ask the writer: Is what you are describing actually McCain's proposal? (Answer: no.)
  • He or she should ask the writer: Isn't the gasoline tax--which you have in the past used to pay for (a small part of) the extension of the Bush tax cuts, Medicare Part D, the structural long-term deficit, and now want to use to pay for a corporate tax cut--performing the function of the spoiled and rotten magic asterisk in your argument? (Answer: yes.)
  • He or she should ask his or her peers: Given what we know, would publishing this tend to inform our readers and raise the level of the debate? (Answer: no.)
  • He or she should ask himself: Given the answers to these first three questions, should we publish it? (Answer: no.)

If the New York Times has a role in the future, it is as a trusted intermediary that warrants the quality of what it publishes and thus brings to its readers' attention. If it cannot figure out a way to accomplish this trusted-intermediary function, it should die--and die as quickly as possible so that other organizations that can perform this trusted-intermediary function should begin capturing its revenue flows.

The second example in my original post is if anything more egregious: Edward Luttwak is not qualified to write anything about Islamic apostacy. David Shipley is not competent to select op-ed writers. And Clark Hoyt is right to call him out.

The problem is Shipley's reaction--it is not to say "I blew it; New York Times readers have a right to demand more competent performance from their trusted intermediary; I will try to do better." Shipley's reaction is:

Entitled to Their Opinions, Yes. But Their Facts?: David Shipley, the editor of the Op-Ed page, said Luttwak’s article was vetted by editors who consulted the Koran, associated text, newspaper articles and authoritative histories of Islam. No scholars of Islam were consulted because “we do not customarily call experts to invite them to weigh in on the work of our contributors,” he said...

And:

[David Shipley] said he did not think the Op-Ed page was under any obligation to present an alternative view, beyond some letters to the editor...

On which Clark Hoyt comments:

That’s a pity...

Indeed it is.

This isn't rocket science I am demanding: this is the simple application of basic intelligence.

Why oh why can't we have a better press corps?

It tells us--both the handling of Luttwak's and the handling of Mankiw's piece tell us--that the New York Times editors don't think that they have a responsibility to try as hard as they can to carry out their trusted-intermediary function. Unless the editors get a clue soon, I can't think of a reason to keep the organization around.

One last point: Note that by the end of Clark Hoyt's article calling out both the author Edward Luttwak and the editor David Shipley, they are both uneasily blaming and pointing fingers at each other:

Luttwak said... he was not out to attack Obama and regretted that, in the editing, [David Shipley cut] a paragraph saying that an Obama presidency could be “beneficial”...

[David] Shipley, the Op-Ed editor, said he regretted not urging [Edward] Luttwak to soften his language about [the] possible assassination [of Barck Obama], given how sensitive the subject is...

May 15, 2008

Joe Klein Is Shrill!

It's teh Republicans that have done it to him:

Hamas Hysteria - TIME: You've got to wonder what sort of anti-Israel, soft-on-terrorism nutjob said this after the elections that brought Hamas to power in 2006:

So the Palestinians had another election yesterday, and the results of which remind me about the power of democracy ... Obviously, people were not happy with the status quo. The people are demanding honest government. The people want services ... And so the elections should open the eyes of the Old Guard there in the Palestinian territories ... There's something healthy about a system that does that...

Wait a minute. That wasn't some pro- terrorist nutjob. It was George W. Bush.... Bush had a stake in the Palestinian elections. His Administration had demanded them, over the quiet objections of the Israelis and the Palestinian Authority -- both of which suspected that the service-providing terrorists of Hamas might win. And very soon after that initial, gracious statement, Bush changed course... refused to deal with the Hamas government unless it recognized Israel. The message to democracy activists in the region was crystal clear: We want elections unless we don't like the results of those elections. It stands as Exhibit A of the incoherence of the Bush foreign policy.

How to deal with groups like Hamas should be an important debate in the coming U.S. election, but it won't be. It was taken off the table... John McCain allowed his campaign to spread the word that Barack Obama had been "endorsed" by a leader of Hamas. That will be one of McCain's main lines of attack: Obama is soft on terrorism. He wants to negotiate with Iran. He has advisers like Zbigniew Brzezinski who have been "anti-Israel" in the past.... Obama responded quickly and definitively to McCain's attack. He told Jeffrey Goldberg of the Atlantic, "I've repeatedly condemned [Hamas]. I've repeatedly said ... since [Hamas] is a terrorist organization, we should not be dealing with them until they recognize Israel, renounce terrorism and abide by previous agreements."... [G]iven Obama's oft-stated position that we should be talking to all parties in the region, the Illinois Senator's position on Hamas can only be considered a sad abandonment of principles. And McCain's predilection for bluster marks him as a leader potentially less flexible than even Bush....

Meanwhile, the unofficial contacts that people like Malley have with Hamas are extremely valuable.... In Iraq, the U.S. military has had quiet talks with everyone from the Sunni insurgents in Fallujah in 2004 to the "special groups" in Sadr City today.... Why should it be easier for an Israeli politician to favor talks with Hamas than it is for an American?

"If you're not talking to everyone, you're going to be Chalabied every time," says Daniel Levy, an Israeli who has negotiated extensively with Palestinians, referring to Ahmad Chalabi, the Iraqi who helped mislead the U.S. into war with Iraq. Indeed, the next President will be negligent if he doesn't include someone like Malley in his circle of Middle East advisers. There is a need to keep all channels open in that insanely complicated region. It is tragic that both McCain and Obama seem poised to fail this essential test of leadership.

March 09, 2008

The Battle of Diu (1509)

One of the great might-have-beens in world history concerns the 1509 Battle of Diu. What if it had gone the other way? Or what if Sultans Beyezid II, Selim the Grim, Suleiman the Lawgiver, and Selim the Sot, and Murad III had shifted a small additional part of the military effort they were making in the Balkans and the Mediterranean into the Indian Ocean?

From Wikipedia:

The Battle of Diu took place on 2-3 February, 1509 near the port town of Diu, India... between Portugal and a joint fleet of the Mamlûk Burji Sultanate of Egypt, the Ottoman Empire, the Zamorin of Calicut and the Sultan of Gujarat, with technical maritime assistance from the Republic of Venice and the Republic of Ragusa (Dubrovnik)... marks the beginning of the dominance of the Europeans in the Asian naval theatre, and a defeat for the then dominant power -- the Ottoman Empire... set the stage for domination of trade in the Indian Ocean by the Portuguese for the next century... parallels others like Lepanto (1571), Abu Qir (1798), Trafalgar (1805) and Tsushima (1905) in terms of its impact, though not in scale....

The Portuguese followed this battle by rapidly capturing key ports/coastal areas around the Indian Ocean like Mombasa, Socotra, Muscat, Ormuz, Goa, Ceylon and Malacca....

The Samoothiri Raja (anglicised to Zamorin), was incensed at the Portuguese because of their conduct since Vasco da Gama had landed in his kingdom in 1498, and hence had joined forces with the Sultan of Gujarat. The Egyptian fleet, manned mostly by Turks, was sent by the Mamlûk Burji Sultan of Cairo, Al-Ashraf Qānsūh al-Ghauri, in 1507 to support, at his invitation, the then Muslim Sultan of Gujarat, Mahmud Begada....

The following were the important participants in this battle:

  • Dom Francisco de Almeida, first Portuguese Viceroy in India
  • Amir Husain Al-Kūrdī, Turkish Commander of the Egyptian-Gujarat naval squadron (known as Mirocem in Portuguese chronicles)
  • Selman Reis, Ottoman naval Captain
  • Malik El Hissa, Governor of Diu for the Sultan of Gujarat
  • The Zamorin of Calicut....

Since Portuguese naval patrols regularly interdicted supplies of Malabar timber for the Mamlûk Red Sea fleet, the Ottoman Sultan, Beyazid II therefore supplied Egypt with Mediterranean-type war galleys manned by Greek sailors. These vessels, which Venetian shipwrights helped disassemble in Alexandria and reassemble on the Red Sea coast... had to brave the Indian Ocean. The galley warriors could mount light guns fore and aft, but not along the gunwales because these cannon would interfere with the rowers. The native ships (dhows), with their sewn wood planks, could carry no heavy guns at all. Hence, most of the coalition's artillery was archers, whom the Portuguese could easily outshoot.

The new Mamlûk fleet set out for India in 1507, first fortifying Jeddah against a possible Portuguese attack. It then passed through Aden at the tip of the Red Sea, where it received support from the Tahirid sultan, and then, in 1508, crossed the Indian Ocean to the port of Diu....

[A]t the first battle of Chaul in March 1508... Dom Lourenço de Almeida, son of the Viceroy, [had been] killed. The Viceroy was so enraged at this death that he is supposed to have said, "He who ate the chick has also to eat the rooster, or pay for it"... the recently arrived Egyptian fleet, along with the fleet from the Sultan of Gujarat, had surprised a smaller Portuguese fleet... eight vessels... predominantly trade cargo bound for Portugal led by Lourenço....

The Portuguese [at Diu] had eighteen ships commanded by the Viceroy, with about 1,500 Portuguese soldiers and 400 natives from Cochin. The Allied side had one hundred ships, but only twelve were major vessels.... [T]he Egyptians decided to take advantage of the port of Diu and its fort, which had its own artillery... stay anchored at this port and await an attack from the Portuguese... the Egyptians/Turks... were used to the more sheltered bays in the Mediterranean... [where] they also relied upon land-based artillery reinforcements....

Portuguese ships

  • Five large naus: Flor do Mar (Viceroy's flagship), Espírito Santo (captain Nuno Vaz Pereira), Belém (Jorge de Melo Pereira), Great King (Francisco de Távora), and Great Taforea (Fernão de Magalhães)
  • Four smaller naus: Small Taforea (Garcia de Sousa), Santo António (Martim Coelho), Small King (Manuel Teles Barreto) and Andorinho (Dom António de Noronha)
  • Four caravelas redondas: (captains António do Campo, Pero Cão, Filipe Rodrigues and Rui Soares)
  • Two caravelas Latinas: (captains Álvaro Peçanha and Luís Preto)
  • Two gales: (captains Paio Rodrigues de Sousa and Diogo Pires de Miranda)
  • One bergantim: (captain Simão Martins)....

Mamluk Egyptian/Gujarat Fleet - Major vessels

  • Four naus (Gujarat)
  • Four naus (Mamluk Egyptian)
  • Two caravelas
  • Four galeotas
  • Two gales

The Viceroy extracted a payment of 300,000 gold xerafins, but rejected the offer of the city of Diu which he thought would be expensive to maintain, although he left a garrison there.... The treatment of the Egyptian/Turkish captives by the Portuguese was brutal. The Viceroy ordered most of them to be hanged, burnt alive or torn to pieces by tying them to the mouths of the cannons, in retaliation for his son's death.... Dom Francisco de Almeida left for Portugal in November, 1509, and in December, 1509 was himself killed by the Khoikhoi tribe, near the Cape of Good Hope....

This battle did not end the rivalry... a second naval battle, again at Diu, in 1538 when the Turks laid siege to the fortress built by the Portuguese in 1535 with 54 ships, but then for some reason lifted the siege... Suleiman I the Magnificent... had sent his emissary Hussein Pasha to attack Diu... another siege of the fortress at Diu in 1547 which marked the end of Ottoman attempts to expand their influence in the Indian Ocean...

The European Seaborne Empires I: "To Serve God, to Win Glory for the King, and to Become Rich"

The European Seaborne Empires I: "To Serve God, to Win Glory for the King, and to Become Rich"

From David Abernethy (2000), The Dynamics of Global Dominance: European Overseas Empires 1415-19890 (New Haven: Yale), p. 242 ff:

The multifaceted nature of Europe's assaults is highlighted when contrasted with the overseas activities of the Chinese and the Arabs. The ideal site for comparison would be a place distant from Europe, China, and Arabia, hence unlikely to be controlled by any of them, where people arriving by sea from all three areas were present at about the same time. That such stringent conditions could be met seems highly unlikely. But in fact they do apply to one case: Malacca during roughly the first century of [European imperalism] phase 1. This city, located on the Malayan side of the narrow strait named after it, was founded in the late fourteenth century and rapidly became the principal center for maritime trade among Indian Ocean emporia, the Spice Islands, and China. Malacca benefited from the weather as well as from its location. Because of monsoonal winds, vessels sailing from the Indian Ocean to China (and vice versa) had to lay over for a few months before continuing the journey. An alternative was for ships to unload their wares in Malacca, returning to their respective home ports with goods from the others' ships as well as gold, spices, and precious woods from the offshore islands.

The city and strait of Malacca were extraordinarily cosmopolitan places several centuries ago. A well-placed Portuguese observer wrote in the 1570s: "One may well and truly say that Malacca, in point of fact, and merchant trade, is the most extensive place in the world." The city was visited by Cheng Ho [pinyin Zheng He] on at least two of his voyages and thereafter by many Chinese sailors and traders. The great Arab traveler Ibn Battuta passed through the strait in 1345-6, and several thousand Muslims, including some from Arabia, resided in the city in the early 1500s. Ibn Battuta's Italian conterpart, Marco Polo, passed through the Malacca Strait in 1292 on his return to Europe from China. As noted in chaptert 3, the Portuguese captured Malacca in 1511, holding it until the Dutch replaced them in 1641. Thus people from all three regions converged around the start of [European imperalism] phase 1 on the same small area.

By studying Malacca in 1511 one comes as close as possible to a historical laboratory experiment. Are sectoral features of European countries present as well in China nad in Arab (and, more generally, Muslim) societies? If so, for reasons given in chapter 2 my argument about the importance of sectors is weakened. If not, the argument is strengthened.

The Chinese government's impact on Malacca was far more limited in scope and duration than might be expected given the country's wealth and size. Cheng Ho's armada of hugh junks, with thousands of well-armed soldiers aboard, was designed to ensure attention and respectful deference to China's rulers from elites elsewhere. Presumably Admiral Ho was instructed to urge monarchs to establish symbolic tributary relaions with the Celestial Court. But the admiral was unwilling to use the military might at his disposal to conquer Malacca, there being no plans to administer distant lands as integral parts of the emperor's domains. Moreover, as noted earlier, the impressive voyages undertaken by Cheng Ho ended abruptly in 1433. The emperor politely received the king of Malacca when the king later journeyed to Beijing, bearing tribute. But assertion of China's superior political status was made by the inferior party visiting the Celestial Court, not by the latter reaching out aggressively beyond its borders. The contrast with the European pattern is obvious.

China's private sector had a more substantial and long-lasting impact on Malacca. One indicator was the existence, as of the early 1500s, of a separate section of the city reserved for Chinese merchants. These traders were on their own when residing overseas. This was manifestly the case after 1433 when they could not count on even an intermittent visit of ships to demonstrate the home government's power. If anything, Malacca's Chinese merchants carried on their business despite the imperial court, which launched periodic efforts to restrict economic ties with the outside world. The court controlled government-to-government trade, expressed through the tributary system. Nonofficial trade, which it was unable to regulate, was perceived as an unwelcome challenge to its power and authority. That many Chinese merchants in Malacca were long-term residents did not signify that they were overseas agents of Chinese power. On the contrary, it reflected recognition of obstacles that bureaucrats would have placed in theiur way had they based their international operations on the Chinese mainland. A common pattern for th Chinese in sixteenth-century Malacca and elsewhere in southeast Asia was to conduct clandestine commerce with the home country. Alternatively, they concentrated on trade among ports scattered about the Nanyang (Southern Seas). In both cases they tried to avoid contact with Chinese officials rather than to work with them.

The imperial court disapproved of Chinese settling elsewhere because this meant abandoning the graves of their ancestors. The court took this view to its logical conclusion in 1712 with an edict forbidding its subjects to live or trade in Southeast Asia. Though poorly and inconsistently enforced, the edict nonetheless expressed an attitude toward overseas settlers diametrically opposed to that of western Europe's rulers.

China's public and private profit sectors thus had minimal contact with each other in dealing with Malacca. When cross-sectoral contact did occur it tended to be competitive and conflictual rather than cooperative. The profit-sharing and chartered-company options were ruled out. This stands in sharp contrast to the European pattern of linking the two sectors in mutually beneficial ways.

The Chinese did not carry a missionary religion to Malacca because they had none. As noted in chapter 8, the imperial court's Confucian creed was a civil religion, not available for export or readily separable institutionally from the public sector. Cheng Ho was dispatched as a diplomatic emissary of the court. But he could not have served as a Confucian missionary, had this unlikely possibility ever been considered, because he was Muslim. Chinese merchants in Malacca practiced their own religious faiths but kept to themselves when oing so. No basis existed for an outeward-looking coalition between leading practitioners of China's religions and its rulers or merchants.

Arabs visited Malacca as long-distance merchants, staying in a quarter of the town set aside for Muslims. Unlike the Chinese they did bring a missionary religion. They used their wealth and their external connections to persuade Southeast Asia's political elites to let them build mosques and invite mullahs to lead the Islamic community's religious life. In many instances Muslim merchants pressured local rulers to convert. Malacca's rulers had been Muslim for about a century before the Portuguese arrived. One may thus speak of an alliance between Arab mercantile and religious interests resembling the European pattern.

But Arabs in teh Indian Ocean basin were not like Europeans. First, they were not agents of a polity eager to assert itself overseas. Home bases for the Arab seafareres were port cities--Jiddah, Adan, Muscat--along the periphery of a vast, thinly-populated desert peninsula not effectively governed by anyone. These cities faced outward to the sea. But they were not linked to a densely-populated, economically-productive, politically-controlled hinterland in the way that western Europe's port cities were. They were urban areas on their own, not urban areas embedded in states. Their prospects for profitable trade were most favorable if none of them advanced political calims beyond its immediate domain. Traders and sailors moved on monsoonal winds from one trading center to another, intermediaries among several autonomous units rather than agents of any particular one.

Second, Arabs were not the only--or even the principal--propagators of Islam in southeast Asia. The central role they played in the religion's formation and explosive early spread into the Fertile Crescent and across North Africa was diluted in later centuries. Islam's steady advance eastward by land and sea was due mainly to initiatives by non-Arabs. Its increasingly cosmopolitan character can be seen in Malacca. The Portuguese chronicler Tome Pires reports that shortly aftert the city was founded "some rich Moorish merchants moved from Pase [in Sumatra] to Malacca, Parees, as well as Bengalese and Arabian Moors, for at that time there were a large number of merchants belonging to these three nations.

The successes of traders as proselytizers meant that diffusion of Islam in southeast Asia did not depend on soldiers and administrators brought in from outside. If public-sector support was deemed necessary it was provided on site: once Malacca's ruler converted, Islam become in effect the kingdom's official faith. Further, the spread of Islam did not depend on full-time specialists in conversion recruited, dispatched, and reporting to an institution headquartered in Arabia or any other Muslim country. Islam indigenized itself as it expanded, rather than serving the ambitious designs of a distant state or missionary agency.

To summarize, the Chinese public sector had only a fleeting interst in reaching out to Malacca, no interest in conquering the city, and competitive rather than cooperative relations between itself and private profit sectors; the religious sector had no will or autonomous institutional capacity to assert itself overseas. China's impact on Malacca as of the early sixteenth century was confined to the activities of a single sector functioning on its own. Arabs had two sectors interested in influencing the outside world, hence the potential for a sectoral coalition. But Islam's spread to Malacca and elsewhere in Southeast Asia was not essentially an Arab activity. Neither was it directed by religous agents accountable to their own sectoral institutions, as in the European pattern. Most importantly, the Arabs' mercantile and religious interests were not backed by a state able or anxious to expand overseas. What initially appears as a two-sector alliance turns out to be a phantom alliance because it lacked institutions stretching outward from a territorial base.

The limited, functionally diffuse character of Chinese and Arab/Muslim relations with Malacca posed an isoluble dilemma for the city's sultan when he encountered Europeans. Teh first ship sent out in 1509 from Goa, capital of Portugal's Estada da India, consisted of traders. But Muslim merchants resident in Malacca who came from Gujarat and other Indian ports knew from experience that the Portugese flag accompanied trade and that the Portuguese were Christians implacably hostile to Islam. Warned in effect that the Portuguese constituted a triple threat to his regime, the sultan imprisoned and mistreated serveral members of the trade mission. His actions precipitated the very attack by Portuguese soldiers two years later than he hoped to forestall. But the Muslim merchants could offer only warnings. None of the cities from which they came was in any position to supply military aid, even to coreligionists threatened by Christian infidels.

The only powerful polity to which the sultan could turn was China. But if he was able to contact the Chinese emperor his efforts were in vain. The tributary system binding Malacca to the Celestial Kingdom symbolized superior/inferior relations and did not contain a mutual defense clause. Help was not forthcoming. At a critical moment in world historoyk wehn Europeans first intervened in Southeast Asian affairs, the Chinese court was unwilling to assert its stake in a nearby region. The sultan faced toward Mecca when praying and toward Beijing when oferring tribute. But for quite different reasons he could count on neither to help counter the new foe.

Beijing, in other words, was the capital city of a powerful state lacking both an expansionist foreign policy and an expansionist religion. Mecca was the central city of an expansionist religion but not of a state. Lisbon was the capital city of a state with an expansionist foreign policy and a strong commitment to spread an expansionist religion.

As Muslim merchants predicted, the Portuguese launched a tripole assault on Malacca. The city was captured in 1511 by an armada of ships carrying fifteen hundred soldiers whose commander, Vicery Afonso d'Albuquerque, saw himself as an extension agent of the Portuguese state. That the invaders intended to assert permanent political control soon became cleear. Albuquereue allegedly cried out to his men in the heat of battle that "We [should] build fortress iin this city... and sustain it, and... this land [should] be brought udner the dominion of the Portuguese, and the King D[om] Manuel be styled true king thereof." Construction of a stone fortress was begun as soon as the battle was won, and it was kept well supplied with soldiers and cannon. The city was a Portuguese possession until the Dutch took it in the seventeenth century. Once secured, Malacca became a vital outpost used to establish other Portuguese enclaves in the Moluccas and on the China coast...

This is a sophisticated and powerful rendition of the argument that what mattered most from 1500-1850 was the triple-threat reinforcing nature of European imperialism--the importance of all three parts of the Spanish hidalgo's explanation of why they had left Iberia: "to serve God, to win glory for the king, and to become rich..."

February 10, 2008

Michael Froomkin Watches the New York Times Water Its Brand...

Why oh why can't we have a better press corps?

Michael Froomkin writes::

Discourse.net: NYT Times Waters Its Brand: Shorter David Brooks: I have finally achieved my ambition of writing a column as tactical and mendacious as William Safire.

Scott Horton deconstructs the NYT's spinelessness when criticized by the Administration.

And this is our best newspaper.

Here's Scott Horton:

Scott Horton: I commented on a recent story authored by Gall and Worthington... “Time Runs Out for an Afghan Held by the U.S.,” concerning the death in Guantánamo detention of Abdul Razzaq Hekmati. This was an important article in several respects. First, it put a human face on one of the prisoners held in Guantánamo who was held unjustly.... Second... it pointed to the smoldering conflict between the Karzai Government and the United States over detention policy. Everyone who works this turf and deals with the Karzai Government’s representatives knows about this issue, but there seems to be a conspiracy of silence surrounding it.... I was pleased to see this finally work its way into the public record. But to my astonishment, today this “editor’s note” was posted under the article:

A front-page article on Tuesday described the problems of the tribunals at the American military base in Guantánamo, as seen through the failure to resolve the case of Abdul Razzaq Hekmati, an Afghan war hero who died there Dec. 30 after a five-year-long detention. The article quoted several Afghan officials who said they were prepared to offer evidence that he was falsely accused, but were never given a chance to do so. Andy Worthington... listed as its co-author, did some of the initial reporting but was not involved in all of it, and The Times verified the information he provided. That included the fact of Mr. Hekmati’s death, and the content of transcripts released by the Pentagon showing that the accusations against Mr. Hekmati had been made by unidentified sources and that the tribunal at Guantánamo had never called outside witnesses requested by detainees.

Mr. Worthington has written a book, “The Guantánamo Files: The Stories of the 774 Detainees in America’s Illegal Prison,” in which he takes the position that Guantánamo is part of what he describes as a cruel and misguided response by the Bush Administration to the Sept. 11 attacks. He has also expressed strong criticism of Guantánamo in articles published elsewhere. The editors were not aware of Mr. Worthington’s outspoken position on Guantánamo. They should have described his contribution to the reporting instead of listing him as co-author, and noted that he had a point of view....

I have a pretty good guess what happened. A call came to the New York Times from a Bush Administration figure complaining bitterly about the article, and viciously attacking Worthington. Since the Bushie attack dogs rarely do anything halfway, I’d wager Worthington was tarred as some sort of barking leftist kook. And the Times editors... did what they usually do... cowardice... buy peace with the powers that be by assailing their own writer.

So we see a note in which Worthington’s views on Guantánamo are described as “outspoken” and the Times distances itself from them.

What’s really going on here? The Bush Administration has fed the media the most vitriolic propaganda about the Guantánamo camps for over six years. The detainees were labeled as “the worst of the worst” and the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff was quoted saying they were the kind of people “who would gnaw their way through cables to make a plane crash.” These claims were reported without contradiction or criticism. They were untrue and known to the government officers who uttered them to be untrue. In the Times view, however, Government officials are free to lie without contradiction.... The story that Gall and Worthington presented exposed a ... lie, and it produced a retaliation. The Times editors are not forthcoming enough to give an honest account of what happened; they are focused on accommodation with the Pentagon’s PR machine, and they are prepared to sacrifice good journalistic ethics to get it.

The still more preposterous aspect of the “note” is the suggestion that there is something “outspoken” in calling to close Guantánamo and labeling the facility what it is. The posture adopted in Worthington’s book is indeed very radical. Among the radicals who have embraced it are the American Bar Association, Pope Benedict XVI, the Archbishop of Canterbury, the Dalai Lama, Chancellor Angela Merkel, the English Lord Chancellor, Lord Falconer, and hundreds of other political and spiritual leaders around the world. Come to think of it, the list of radicals includes the editorial board of the New York Times.

This “note” is a badge of shame for the New York Times. It shows a paper whose editors operate to demonstrably lower standards than the journalists they employ. The editors promised that in the wake of the gross mistakes they made in the run-up to the Iraq War, they would reform and demonstrate a higher level resistance to efforts at undercover manipulation by the Government. On that promise, their integrity hangs. But they are failing in it.

December 28, 2007

Why Oh Why Can't We Have a Better Press Corps? (Elisabeth Bumiller/Robert Dallek/New York Times Edition)

More low comedy from the New York Times this morning, picked up by Scott Lemieux and Matthew Yglesias, who give their snark muscles a power workout by mocking Elisabeth Bumiller and Robert Dallek.

Here is Yglesias:

Fun With Antecedents: By the same token, if earth's yellow sun gave me the powers of a kryptonian, I'd be a super hero. If my blog had Engadget's traffic, I'd be the most popular political blogger. If George Bush could breath underwater, he'd be a fish...

Here is Lemieux:

And If The Devil Rays Win the Next 18 World Series, Their Reputation as an Organization Will Be Greatly Enhanced: Uh, yeah. And if I discover a way of powering cars entirely with oxygen, emitting a vapor that would result in the immediate killing of cockroaches and paralysis in the hands of every Hollywood producer about to sign a contract with Joel Schumacher and Uwe Boll, my reputation as a world-class scientist would be greatly enhanced. I'm reminded of nothing so much as David Adesnik's suggestion that Bush signal his commitment to a rational foreign policy by appointing Dick Lugar...

They are talking about this, from Robert Dallek's review of Elisabeth Bumiller's Condi Rice biography:

Condoleezza Rice: An American Life - Elisabeth Bumiller: Ms. Bumiller understands that Ms. Rice’s place in history will rest... on her record in the Bush administration. And “with 18 months left in office,” Ms. Bumiller wrote as she finished her book, “it was still too early to come to definite conclusions.”... Ms. Bumiller says that if President Bush and Ms. Rice can produce a settlement in the Middle East between Israelis and Palestinians and an end to North Korea’s nuclear program, it would give them claims on success that would significantly improve their historical reputations...

Lemieux says more:

Lawyers, Guns and Money: And If The Devil Rays Win the Next 18 World Series, Their Reputation as an Organization Will Be Greatly Enhanced: [N]othing signals a Must To Avoid more than a positive book review that describes an unreadable book. Such is the case with Robert Dallek's review of a new book about Condi Rice by official Bush administration mash note writer Elisabeth Bumiller. Apparently, we're meant to think that the fact that the book makes no judgments and contains no interesting analysis of Rice's tenure as Secretary of State is a feature, not a bug...

20071208_delong_micro.jpg I by contrast, was struck by the striking disjunction between what happens when you start reading Dallek's review from the beginning:

Condoleezza Rice: An American Life - Elisabeth Bumiller: The writer of contemporary history is like the man with his nose pressed against the mirror trying to see his whole body, Arnold Toynbee cautioned. Yet whatever their limitations, books about prominent sitting officials are irresistible, partly driven by an insatiable public appetite for gossip about public figures and an interest in understanding and judging them.... More important, these first drafts of history are indispensable assets... capture... the tone and mood of the day.... Elisabeth Bumiller’s biography of Condoleezza Rice is an excellent case... 10 interviews with Ms. Rice and 150 with other people... a compelling portrait of the country’s first black female secretary of state... its absence of finger pointing or polemics... scrupulously fair.... In Ms. Bumiller’s rendering Ms. Rice is neither hero nor villain but an ambitious woman whose achievements and shortcomings speak for themselves.... Ms. Bumiller refuses to offer any decisive judgments on Ms. Rice’s performance...

and what happens when you start reading Dallek's review backward, from the end:

Condoleezza Rice: An American Life - Elisabeth Bumiller: Ultimately Ms. Bumiller’s book will be seen not just as a discussion of Ms. Rice’s role in shaping one administration’s missteps in foreign affairs but also as a cautionary tale about the gap between ambitious presidential appointees and their unwillingness to speak truth to power.

Inevitably Ms. Rice will be compared to previous national security advisers and secretaries of state, notably Henry Kissinger. Judging from Ms. Bumiller’s account, Ms. Rice, like Mr. Kissinger, was driven more by ambition for high station than fidelity to international realities. Mr. Kissinger’s loyalty to President Richard M. Nixon and Ms. Rice’s to President Bush made them as much political operatives ingratiating themselves with their respective presidents as detached foreign policy analysts serving the national well-being.

“Some of Rice’s friends,” Ms. Bumiller writes, “were stunned that she actually seemed to believe Bush’s argument in the final days of the war buildup that a liberated Iraq could spread freedom across the Middle East.” Ms. Rice also believed that “the postwar phase would be like the successful occupation of Germany after World War II, and that it would be possible to plant democracy in a shattered Iraq.” Either Ms. Rice knew less than she should have about pre- and post-1945 German history, or she was carried away by false optimism.

By the start of the invasion in March 2003, the Rice of early 2000, who had published an article in Foreign Affairs decrying the Clinton administration’s “moral impulse to spread American democracy,” had morphed into a forceful public advocate of bringing down Saddam Hussein, whom she pictured as intent on acquiring nuclear weapons that could lead to “a mushroom cloud” over the United States...

It is still unclear to me--and I have talked to her about this--whether Elisabeth Bumiller that that her mash notes to the Bush administration were what she was supposed to do as a White House correspondent, or understood that she was not doing the job the New York Times's readers had hired her to do but was too much of a coward to do it.

It is clear to me that Robert Dallek understands what the job the readers of the New York Times have hired him to do is--read backwards, the review is pretty good and informative. But that's not the review Dallek writes. Instead, he puts what he thinks are the most important things he has to say at the end of the newspaper story, where they are least likely to be read, and stuffs the most-read beginning with fluff: "indispensable asset... excellent case... a compelling portrait... scrupulously fair.... In Ms. Bumiller’s rendering Ms. Rice is neither hero nor villain but an ambitious woman whose achievements and shortcomings speak for themselves..."

Robert Dallek is simply a coward.

November 30, 2007

The Economist Is Shrill

Also schizophrenic: it denounces both George W. Bush and itself:

The Annapolis peace summit: Much to be modest about: The pious hope of this newspaper that America's president might fill the gap was confounded too.... Had Mr Bush wanted to signal what sort of deal America wanted, this was his chance. Yet his own speech was almost miraculously content-free....

So Mahmoud Abbas, the Palestinian president Annapolis was intended to strengthen against the rejectionists of Hamas, returns to Ramallah with little to show except the promise of a year of bi-weekly meetings with Ehud Olmert.... Mr Olmert may feel that he came out better from Annapolis. But what a barren victory: how can he or any other Israeli centrist persuade Israel's religious hawks to accept the need to give ground on Jerusalem, for example, while America has a president who is not willing to make such a demand?

It is of course better that the two sides talk.... Talks might also prepare the ground for the day when America does have a president who is genuinely willing to spend political capital on Palestine....

In the White House, Mr Bush's speechwriters are no doubt congratulating him on a good week's work. They appear to think that simply attracting a big crowd of Arabs to Annapolis and talking loftily about an independent Palestine strengthens the region's moderates against the extremists of Hamas and Hizbullah, and the Iranians behind them. But in asking Mr Abbas to lead his exhausted and sceptical people back into the tunnel of negotiations, and neglecting to switch on a light at the end of it, Mr Bush is asking a lot of the Palestinian moderates. If they fail, he will deserve a big share of the blame.

October 01, 2007

Fearless Leader

Matthew Yglesias writes:

If Wishes Were Ponies...: Congress's de facto war powers have been reduced to the need to get congressional approval for war-related spending.... [But] according to the media, if Democrats vote for a funded withdrawal of troops, and then Bush vetoes those funds and demands that Democrats give him a blank check, then it would be a failure to "support the troops" for Democrats to refuse to cave.... We've also seen that many -- if not most -- congressional Democrats accept this framing.

So if Bush decides he wants to bomb Iran, nobody in congress is going to stop him.

Dana Priest, though, speaks for surprisingly many journalist when she says:

Frankly, I think the military would revolt and there would be no pilots to fly those missions. This is a little bit of hyperbole, but not much. Just look at what Gen. Casey, the Army chief, said yesterday. That the tempo of operations in Iraq would make it very hard for the military to respond to a major crisis elsewhere. Beside, it's not the "war" or "bombing" part that's difficult; it's the morning after and all the days after that. Haven't we learned that (again) from Iraq?

To me, though, it's important to avoid overstating the degree of military opposition to a bomb Iran policy. As best I can tell, the Army is dead-set against it. But the Army wouldn't be carrying the mission out anyway. It'd be shocking for the Air Force to suddenly come to appreciate the strategic limits of air power. In their minds, bombing Iran won't compound the error of Iraq; rather, it'll show the manifest benefits of doing things their way rather than getting bogged-down into an Army-style quagmire.

I would not say "many, if not most, Democrats accept this framing." I would say "some Democrats accept this framing, and others believe the press has them by the short hairs, and together there are enough to block action." Which is why it is necessary to scare both members of congress who want to get reelected and our ethics-free journalism core.

I do think that Dana Priest needs to have her meds adjusted: our military obeys lawful orders--even if it thinks the orders are unwise. Perhaps if congress forbade an attack on Iran, the planes would not fly. Not otherwise.

This is why it is so important to impeach George W. Bush and Richard Cheney and to do it now.

September 28, 2007

Matthew Yglesias on the Bed-Wetters

Matthew Yglesias on those who are unwomanned by the idea of Iran's president in New York City:

Matthew Yglesias: Watch as Richard Just expends a staggering number of words on not getting the difference between liberal opposition to Iran's record on human rights (fine by me) and liberal opposition to freaking out at the idea of Mahmoud Ahmadenijad being physically present in the United States (not at all fine) or liberal opposition to persistent efforts by the hawkish right in the United States to wildly overstate Ahmadenijad's role in the Iranian government (also not fine).

The bed-wetters aren't people who criticize the Iranian government. The bed-wetters are the hysterics who seem to think that the basic acts of diplomacy are a clear and present danger to the United States. Meanwhile, despite Just's best efforts to portray the recent outburst of Ahmedenijad-related hysteria as driven by human rights concerns, the freak-out movement wasn't driven by human rights groups, it was driven by the warmongering elements of the press -- The New York Sun and The New York Post plus the magazines and radio and television shows. The Human Rights Watch Iran page is dominated by actual human rights issues in Iran, not by random screechings about Ahmadenijad's sightseeing schedule.

Meanwhile, one of the things you need to do in journalism is come up with novel terms for phenomena and groups of people. For example, there's a set of people, including Just, who say they don't think we should start a war with Iran but who only seem to comment on Iran-related issues when they want to criticize opponents of going to war with Iran. They're against starting a war, but never raise a peep against the warmonger chorus, but do speak up to police the bounds of acceptable opposition to the warmongers. Call them the Something Somethings. But I need a better word.

August 16, 2007

Hating on Richard Cheney

Let us give the mike to Brink Lindsey:

Cato-at-liberty » Invasion of the Cheney Snatchers: This eerie video clip of a 1994 interview with Dick Cheney... [he] defends the Bush 41 administration’s decision not to proceed to Baghdad after expelling the Iraqi army from Kuwait. His description of the downsides of occupation now sounds downright prophetic.

Seeing this clip reminded me of a personal experience along similar lines. Back in 1998, when I was running Cato’s then-new Center for Trade Policy Studies, we held a conference on unilateral economic sanctions called “Collateral Damage: The Economic Cost of U.S. Foreign Policy.” And our luncheon speaker at that event was none other than Halliburton CEO Dick Cheney.

Looking back at the transcript of his talk, you can see that it’s not just Cheney’s views of the wisdom of occupying Iraq that have undergone an amazing transformation. So has his attitude about engaging versus confronting Iran:

[O]ur sanctions policy oftentimes generates unanticipated consequences. It puts us in a position where a part of our government is pursuing objectives that are at odds with other objectives that the United States has.... An example that comes immediately to mind has to do with efforts to develop the resources of the... Caspian Sea area... rich in oil and gas. Unfortunately, Iran is sitting right in the middle of the area and the United States has declared unilateral economic sanctions against that country.... American firms are prohibited from dealing with Iran and find themselves cut out of the action.... Iran is not punished... development will proceed, but it will happen without American participation. The most striking result of the government’s use of unilateral sanctions in the region is that only American companies are prohibited from operating there.

Another good example of how our sanctions policy oftentimes gets in the way of our other interests occurred in the fall of 1997 when Saddam Hussein was resisting U.N. weapons inspections.... Administration officials in the area were trying to get Arab members of the coalition... to allow U.S. military forces to be based on their territory... in the event it was necessary to take military action against Iraq.... Our friends in the region cited a number of reasons for not complying... concerned with the fragile nature of the peace process between Israel and the Palestinians... had fundamental concerns about our policy toward Iran... [our] anti-Iranian policy... raised questions in their mind about the wisdom of U.S. leadership....

So, what effect does this have... all of the Arab countries... with the single exception of Kuwait, rejected our request to base forces... most of them boycotted the economic conference... in connection with the peace process that was hosted in Qatar.... Then... they all went to Tehran and attended the Islamic summit.... The nation that’s isolated in terms of our sanctions policy in that part of the globe is not Iran. It is the United States...

Note again that Cheney gave these remarks in 1998 — when Iran’s nuclear ambitions were already well known, and two years after the Khobar Towers bombing in which Iran was believed to be complicit.

9/11 may not have changed everything, but it sure changed Dick Cheney.

Impeach them all. Now.

August 07, 2007

Impeach George W. Bush. Impeach Him Now

Matthew Yglesias reports:

Matthew Yglesias: Another classic "me or your lying eyes" moment as George W. Bush decides to contradicts Afghan President Hamid Karzai on the question of Iran's role in Afghanistan. Karzai, who only lives in Afghanistan and runs its government, calls Iran "a helper." Bush, though, says he's got it wrong.

June 12, 2007

Battling Apocalypses Department: Mitt the Apostate...

Wonkette directs us to the International Herald Tribune:

Romney puts Mormons in spotlight - International Herald Tribune: Tom Grover, 26, a Mormon who is the host of a weekday talk show on politics on radio station KVNU here, said that while he thinks Romney has handled the scrutiny admirably, some of his callers were incensed about Romney's repudiation of his own ancestors' polygamy. The church outlawed the practice a century ago, but members are taught to understand that polygamy had a theological and historical context in the church, which Romney's remark ignored. "That really left a bad taste in people's mouths," Grover said. "That's a tough thing for people to hear when their ancestors sacrificed a lot to live that life. They probably wouldn't bring polygamy back, but they honor the place of it in church history."

Audrey Godfrey, a historian who has written books with her husband, Kenneth, said of Romney, "If I were one of his relatives, I would be upset with him."

Another case arose when George Stephanopoulos of ABC News asked Romney about a Mormon teaching that Jesus will come to the United States when he returns to reign on earth. Romney responded that the Messiah will return to the Mount of Olives in Jerusalem, "the same as the other Christian tradition."

Grover said some of his radio listeners were astounded. "They were just in disbelief, saying, 'That's not true; Jesus is coming back to Missouri,'" Grover said. "It's the LDS Church's 10th article of faith that Zion will be built upon the American continent"...

So vote for Romney if you want Jesus close at hand in Missouri, rather than far off in the Levant.

Or you could go further. Vote for Ahmednijad. If you vote for Ahmednijad, then:

Apocalypse: [W]hen the world has fallen into chaos, and civil war emerges between the human race for no reason... half of the true believers will ride from Yemen carrying white flags to Mecca, while the other half will ride from Karbala... carrying black flags to Mecca.... [Jesus] will reappear carrying a cross of gold and a crown of thorns...

But Jesus will not command this Host of the Lord. The commander will be his good friend and boss: Muhammad ibn Hasan ibn Ali al Mahdi, the Twelfth Imam of the Party of Muhammed's son-in-law Ali:

At this time, Muhammad ibn Hasan ibn Ali al Mahdi will descend from the heavens wielding God's Sword, the Blade of Evil's Bane, Zoulfikar, the Double-Bladed Sword...

June 11, 2007

Ezra Klein: Baerly There

Ezra Klein writes:

Ezra Klein: Baerly There: One more thing: I assumed this riposte would appear in the next issue of Democracy, as they have a section entirely devoted to responses, and I'm attacked by name in the article with an out-of-context, edited quote. [Kenneth] Baer refused...

I think it's time to write to the editorial committee of Democracy: A Journal of Ideas: that's Louis Caldera, Christopher Edley, Jr., William Galston, Leslie Gelb, Elaine Kamarck, Robert Reich, Susan Rice, Isabel Sawhill, Theda Skocpol, Anne-Marie Slaughter, and Sean Wilentz.

Discourse Ethics Violation by Ken Baer

Anybody who reads Ken Baer's "Middle East Myopia: Newly declassified documents illustrate the danger of letting military disaster blind us to emerging international threats" should be aware that people he criticizes don't say what he claims they say. This is a first-class discourse-ethics violation.

To be specific, Ezra Klein wrote last March:

Ezra Klein: Autocratic Iran?: March 19, 2007: The latest Time Magazine has an article on internal criticism of Ahmadinejad that demonstrates something important:

The scene was like the Iranian answer to March Madness. At Amir Kabir University of Technology in Tehran this past December, a crowd of several thousand packed the school's auditorium. On one side were hundreds of members of the Basij, a volunteer paramilitary force controlled by Iranian hard-liners, who had been bused in to cheer their most prominent alumnus, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. They waved placards and roared as Ahmadinejad boasted about Iran's growing power and dared the country's enemies to challenge it. But in the back of the room, a group of 50 activists burned an effigy of the President, set off firecrackers and interrupted his speech with chants of "Death to the dictator!" Ahmadinejad grinned tightly and struggled to finish, but few people would remember what he said. At the height of his power, in a time and place of his choosing, Iran's President had been upstaged.

This just isn't that repressive a society. For all the talk of Iran's autocratic tyrants, here you have the president being burned in effigy, interrupted by firecrackers, and condemned to death, all while he's giving a speech. And he does nothing more than "grin tightly" throughout it! In this country, if an activist exposes an anti-war t-shirt while the president is talking, she gets muscled out of the room. That's not to say Iran doesn't have all sorts of human rights violations of its own, but the attempt to make the country look like some sort of tyrannical, dictatorial regime is just another element of the war propaganda.

Here's what this becomes in Baer's hands:

Print Friendly: [T]oo many progressives... are in danger of letting the past prevent them from focusing on the real threats.... Some even go so far as to excuse the Iranian regime, the better to deny the very existence of a threat. One prominent blogger, Ezra Klein, wrote, in a post titled "Autocratic Iran?" that the "attempt to make the country look like some sort of tyrannical, dictatorial regime is just another element of the war propaganda."...

[I]t would be a disservice to our progressive ideals if we allowed disgust with the Bush Administration to lead to a softness toward totalitarian, anti-egalitarian, atavistic regimes and movements.... [W]e must aggressively oppose knee-jerk anti-Americanism and the strange alliances rampant among Islamic radicals and left-wing politicians... "the jihadism of fools"--and ensure that it does not spread to our shores. And it means that we cannot let the call for "realism" and "competence"--no matter how vital they may be as qualities in a commander-in-chief--become touchstones around which we build an aimless and disjointed foreign policy...

Ken Baer owes Ezra Klein an apology, and a retraction.

If Baer wants to build a foreign policy around fantasy and incompetence, he is making a good start.

May 27, 2007

Can Anything Perch on Deborah Howell's Olive Branch?

Washington Post ombudsman Deborah Howell appears motivated to change her spots, and holds out an olive branch:

Deborah Howell - For Ombudsmen, an Evolving Mission - washingtonpost.com: Ombudsmen, not fully trusted either by journalists or readers, are right in the middle of the daily fray of not just what readers may think is wrong with The Post but also the swelling waves that are changing journalism.... Alan Rusbridger, editor of The Guardian... put it well:... readers' "trust has to be re-earned all the time... in each and every single piece of copy."... Rusbridger urged much more openness to readers and the admission that journalism "is something more fluid, a much more iterative thing than the tablet of stone. It is about us saying 'this is how it seems to us; it's not the definitive word on the subject by any means; some of you will know more about this; we can collaborate to try and get closer to the truth on this story; this is how you can contribute.'... The greater the speed required of us in the digital world -- and speed does matter, but never at the expense of accuracy or fairness or anything which would imperil trust -- the more we should be honest about the tentative nature of what is possible."...

[T]he meeting stimulated this ombudsman to not just be the complaint department but to also help readers and staffers surf those waves without drowning the best in journalism...

If she is serious, here is a subject for her next ombudsman column in the Washington Post:

Her newspaper's editorial board--an organization that has torn any trust in it into shreds and gobbets in the past decade--has just attacked the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Mohamed ElBaradei. Here are Fred Hiatt and company on May 27, 2007:

Next Step on Iran - washingtonpost.com: [T]he director of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Mohamed ElBaradei, has begun arguing that the Security Council should simply concede that its three legally binding, unanimous resolutions ordering an end to Iranian enrichment have been "overtaken by events" and that it should give up the effort to enforce them.... [W]e can only marvel at the nerve of Mr. ElBaradei, an unelected international civil servant whose mission is to implement the decisions of the Security Council -- and who proposes to destroy the council's authority by having it simply drop binding resolutions...

We cannot help remember that in the run-up to an earlier war Fred Hiatt and company slanderously attacked Mohamed ElBaradei. Here are Fred Hiatt and company on March 11, 2003:

Are Inspections Working?: [T]he three months of inspections so far have demonstrated... that... [U.N. inspectors cannot] locate Iraq's most deadly weapons, much less ensure disarmament.... So why do the [U.N.'s weapons] inspectors sound so upbeat?... Hans Blix and... Mohamed ElBaradei are international civil servants who are desperate to prove that agencies like theirs can be effective.... Mr. ElBaradei has... [turned] on Iraq's accusers. In his first report to the council, Mr. ElBaradei argued against the logic of Resolution 1441, saying that inspectors could be used to contain Iraq even if Saddam Hussein didn't cooperate. He has used his two subsequent presentations to dispute evidence offered by Britain and the United States, while coming close to declaring Iraq free of any nuclear program. Last Friday, Mr. ElBaradei made headlines by denouncing one secondary piece of evidence, about an alleged Iraqi attempt to obtain fissile material from Niger, as a forgery.... Such diversions have lamentably become the substitute for U.N. oversight of real Iraqi disarmament...

Of course, Mohamed ElBaradei was not, in early 2003, shading the evidence to make his agency look more effective. He was not failing to find Iraq's most dangerous weapons. He appears to have been correct in his view that the enforcement regime could contain Saddam Hussein. And, of course, the Niger uranium documents were forged.

I note that today Fred Hiatt and company do not say that Mohamed ElBaradei is wrong in what he is saying; they merely say that they "marvel at [his] nerve" in saying it given his bureaucratic position. I would like Deborah Howell to investigate: Is the Washington Post editorial board being accurate and fair in its current attacks on Mohamed ElBaradei? Or is this another case of the saying, apocryphally attributed to Machiavelli, that we never can forgive those whom we have injured?

May 18, 2007

Scott Horton Thinks Bernard Lewis Has Turned into a Real Loser

It is a conclusion that is hard to avoid, and shared by many:

"The Creeping Senility of Bernard Lewis": Recently I was up at Princeton listening to some faculty trade barbs about Bernard Lewis. Lewis is a media darling, but some folks who deal with Middle East studies as a profession think his ideas are off the rails. I first chalked this up to academic envy.... But having read his last op-ed piece at the Wall Street Journal, I see what the critics mean.

Lewis does a side-by-side comparison of United States and Soviet foreign policy towards the Middle East. Evidently, Americans are weaklings who can’t stay through a conflict, who withdraw when barracks are bombed in Beirut (oh my God, an attack on Ronald Reagan) and now who are preparing to quit Iraq. On the other hand, Soviets have gumption and staying power, which explains why they are so damned successful. "If you did anything to annoy the Russians, punishment would be swift and dire. If you said or did anything against the Americans, not only would there be no punishment; there might even be some possibility of reward, as the usual anxious procession of diplomats and politicians, journalists and scholars and miscellaneous others came with their usual pleading inquiries: 'What have we done to offend you? What can we do to put it right?'"

So, Lewis puts it to us that the Soviets had exactly the right approach to the Middle East. Which explains several things. The glorious victory of the Soviet Union in Afghanistan against the mujahedeen, for instance. Then the spectacular fashion in which the Russians smashed the Chechen Islamicists in the North Caucasus. And the effective Russian suppression of the Muslim upstart states in the Soviet Union’s southern periphery, followed by the spread of fraternal Russian treaty relationships across the Muslim world.

Obviously, Prof. Lewis is living in a different universe from the one I inhabit. In mine, the Soviet Union is no more, with its empire having been consigned to the dung heap of history.... But one thing about Lewis’s analysis impresses me. He has a penchant for seeing things exactly the way that the leadership of Al Qaeda does.... I’m no expert in the Middle East, of course. But neither, it seems, is Bernard Lewis.

May 17, 2007

The Palestinian Catastrophe

Scott MacLeod writes at Time's Middle East weblog:

The Palestinian Catastrophe: Arab satellite channels carried live pictures from Gaza of dozens of journalists trapped inside a building and ducking to the floor to shield themselves a little better from the blasts of rocket and gun fire outside. The dramatic images perfectly captured the sorry state of Palestinian affairs.... Palestinian journalists who risk their lives to inform the world about the tragic struggle between Israelis and Palestinians, now cowering on the floor as the leading Palestinian factions try to wipe each other out....

The timing of the latest outbreak of factional killing, which has left nearly 50 Palestinians dead, made it as ironic as it was pathetic. Tuesday was the 59th anniversary of... the founding of Israel and wartime exodus of hundreds of thousands of Palestinians. A day earlier, European foreign ministers held a first-ever collective meeting in Brussels Monday with their Arab counterparts to discuss the 2002 Arab peace initiative.... But... Israel didn't need to complain there was "no Palestinian partner for peace." The Palestinians themselves, it seems, illustrated that to the world....

To be fair, of course, the Palestinians are in miserable straits. Years of Israeli and U.S. neglect of the peace process have contributed to destructive political, economic and social pressures within Palestinian society. The reasons for the breakdown in Palestinian cohesion is similar to what happened in Iraq. Years of sanctions and isolation weakened Iraqi society to the point that when Saddam fell, chaos ensued. Unrelenting violence and poverty has done the same in Gaza now. It has scarcely helped that Israel and the U.S. have made a practice of refusing to talk to Palestinian leaders, or that they have effectively embargoed Palestine since the democratic victory of Hamas last year.

Yet... leaders and political groups have to earn respect.... Mandela and freedom-seeking South Africans... somehow managed to keep their dignity and honor. If the Palestinians can't produce leaders who serve rather than spoil their just cause, they may be in store for some more catastrophes still.

It was a much nearer-run thing in South Africa than MacLeod admits to himself: too much "necklacing." And MacLeod soft pedals his conclusion. He doesn't say that only with peace and order in a Palestine-ruled Gaza is there a chance for progress on any issue involving the West Bank. But that is the case. I would not have thought that the Palestinians could have worse "leadership" than Yasser Arafat. Yet that is the case today.

May 03, 2007

What Is Going on In Turkey?

Vincent Boland in the FT on Turkey:

FT.com / World - A tale of misunderstandings, snobbery, bruised egos and mutinous soldiers: Turkey is on the verge of a grave crisis. The country's governing party, which has roots in political Islam, and its secular-minded military are at odds. The issues at stake are momentous.... But the story... is a tale of misunderstandings, sexism, snobbery, bruised egos and mutinous soldiers, from which nobody emerges with much credit.

At the heart of the story is Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey's prime minister, who faced the challenge of keeping his governing Justice and Development party (AKP) united while avoiding a split with the generals who see themselves as the guarantors of the country's secular order. During much of March and April, Mr Erdogan seemed to be racked with indecision over whether to run for the presidency.... He finally, probably in the second week of April, decided to decline the post.

It was the moment the process of appointing Turkey's new president should have become a formality. Instead it was the opening act in a drama that has touched all the country's sensitive nerves and resulted in the most serious clash in a decade between the military and a serving government.... General Yasar Buyukanit, chief of the general staff, had already made clear the military's views: the new president had to be secular "not just in words, but in essence."...

Mr Arinc also wanted to be president. But his candidacy would have been even more divisive than Mr Erdogan's. Mr Erdogan and Mr Arinc met in private on April 23, together with Abdullah Gul, Mr Erdogan's foreign minister and closest political adviser. Mr Arinc was angry when told who the candidates were. According to some accounts, he regarded the potential nominees as inferior to him in political status. "Listen, Tayyip," he is said to have told the prime minister: "If the president isn't going to be you, and if it isn't going to be Abdullah-bey, it's going to be me." Mr Erdogan knew Mr Arinc could derail any parliamentary vote on the candidates. After much deliberation, the three agreed that the candidate would have to be Mr Gul. Urbane and polished after four years as foreign minister, Mr Gul appeared to have the makings of an ideal president....

But at general staff headquarters, not far from parliament in the utilitarian republican quarter of Ankara, there was a sense of shock. What had happened to the two agreed candidates?... [T]he general staff agreed to take a stance. Its message was clearly aimed at the constitutional court deliberating the CHP's petition to throw out the result of the presidential vote. "The Turkish armed forces are watching this [election] situation with concern," said the statement on its web-site. The military had spelt out its concerns about a Gul presidency. Now it was up to the country's judges and politicians to respond.

April 23, 2007

Matthew Yglesias Quotes Paul Krugman on Bush's "Surge"

Why a rational congress would have impeached George W. Bush years ago:

Matthew Yglesias / proudly eponymous since 2002: Paul Krugman: "There are two ways to describe the confrontation between Congress and the Bush administration over funding for the Iraq surge. You can pretend that it’s a normal political dispute. Or you can see it for what it really is: a hostage situation, in which a beleaguered President Bush, barricaded in the White House, is threatening dire consequences for innocent bystanders — the troops — if his demands aren’t met."

Indeed. Krugman seems disinclined to end his column on a defeast note, but the maddening thing of it is that all signs indicate that this tactic is likely to succeed and Bush will achieve his goal of ensuring that the war is left on the desk of the next president. Perhaps he thinks this'll mean it'll go down in the record books as something his successor "lost" rather than a catastrophic error he made.

April 21, 2007

Ghawar Oil Field

Courtesy of Econobrowser:

Econbrowser: Weekend links: Jeremy Gilbert, retired Chief Petroleum Engineer of BP, weighed in last week on recent speculation at the Oil Drum about whether the decline in Saudi oil production signals that production from Ghawar, by far the world's biggest and most important oil field, has peaked:

It is, of course, almost tragic that the Saudis won't release more detailed performance data-- and their own analyses-- which would show the situation clearly and avoid the need for the painstaking work reported in Oil Drum.... It seems likely to me that the conclusions the authors have reached about Ghawar's current status are broadly correct. However, it's a big step to take from concluding Ghawar is currently at or close to maximum achievable production rate to saying that that rate cannot be maintained, or even increased, through the addition of additional production wells, through increased or more efficient water injection schemes or through surface facility modifications...

Tim McGurk Reports on Gaza from Jerusalem

He writes:

Gaza School Blast - The Middle East Blog - TIME: When an Israeli intelligence officer told us, with admirable specificity, that Palestinian militants had smuggled 31 tons of explosives into the Gaza strip, I assumed the explosives would be used to fight the Israelis. Was I wrong.

In the last two weeks, those explosives were applied in Gaza against an internet café, a culture center, a library, a popular family restaurant, and a Bible Society which taught computer studies to both Muslims and Christian Palestinians. Today, another target was added to the list: Gaza’s only international school, which gave the kind of quality education that would enable young Palestinians to pursue higher studies elsewhere, to make something of their lives beyond Gaza's stockade-like walls. On the internet, I looked up the American International School in Gaza. Their website showed neatly dressed, proud kids sitting beside a sports field. The kids looked bright and shiny. And the website said “We are all extremely proud to be a part of the vision for the future of Palestine.”

That bright future ended on Saturday morning when gunmen tied up the school guards and went from building to building, laying explosive charges. But first, before blowing up the school, they stole computers and other valuable equipment. Fortunately, it was too early for class and nobody was injured. Those who destroyed Gaza's schools, libraries and computer centers try to pass themselves off as Islamic militants, but it’s hard to see them as anything other than vandals and bullies. The school administrator said he would keep the school open, even if he had to teach kids in a tent. Who knows... then they'll probably steal the tent pegs...

March 28, 2007

Fear and Loathing in the Crude Pits

What will oil prices do? They will fluctuate!


Source: Nymex via Wall Street Journal

Fear and Loathing in Crude Pits: David Gaffen: What is learned about the psyche of a market that jumps 8% on a rumor later proved bogus? At the very least, that emotions are frayed.

Crude briefly touched $