Must-Read: Ian Millhiser: Why America Failed: "America failed because of the Electoral College...
Claire Malone (July): There Is No Happy Ending to This Story: The End Of A Republican Party: "Many Republicans think Donald Trump’s nomination is... destroying any chance for growth... leaving the GOP to wither and die on Trump vineyard vines... (Live from Trumpland)
I endorse this:
[Scholars' letter of support for Ricardo Hausmann]:
We the undersigned write to express our dismay at Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro’s repeated targeting of our colleague Ricardo Hausmann and to express our support for Professor Hausmann.
Three excellent pieces on how the media has failed us--and failed us worse this election cycle than ever before: Brian Buetler, Todd Gitlin, Jurek Martin.
By the way, I disagree with Buetler in one important dimension. When Brian says "there is no shortage of journalists and outlets in this industry with a lot to be proud of...", he is lying. There is a great shortage. That is why Brian needs to come up with a list--a shortlist--of journalists and outlets to whitelist:
Brian Buetler: [Shame on Us, the American Media]: "There is no shortage of journalists and outlets in this industry with a lot to be proud of...
In 2000 Supreme Court Justices William Rehnquist, Anthony Kennedy, Sandra Day O'Connor, Antonin Scalia, and Clarence Thomas decided the presidential election by casting their five votes in a lawless exercise that they then forbade ever being used as a precedent. In this election Supreme Court Justices John Roberts, Anthony Kennedy, Joseph Alito, Antonin Scalia, and Clarence Thomas are once again casting votes--enough, it looks like right now, to give North Carolina to Donald Trump:
Michael DeLong: The Attack on Voting Rights:
In 2013, by a 5–4 vote, the Supreme Court struck down a couple of key provisions of the 1965 Voting Rights Act. Section 5 of the Act required certain state and local governments to get federal approval before they could implement any changes to their voting laws, and Section 4(b) contained the formula that determined which areas had to get approval. The formula was based on the areas’ past records of discrimination in voting.
Matt Drudge Rules Their World: What Arch-Journamalists Mark Halperin and John Harris are reading this morning:
Why does this come as a surprise to Bret Stephens? The distance between Sarah Palin and Rick Perry on the one hand and Donald Trump on the other is not that large: (Live from the Republicans' Self-Made Trump Hell)
Bret Stephens: 2016’s Big Reveal: "The awful election of 2016... was the Big Reveal... the guiding spirit of the modern conservative movement is neither Burke nor Lincoln...
Time for a personal plea to Jeff Bezos: shut the Washington Post down. (Live from the Journamalists Self-Made Hell)
An organization profoundly uninterested in being a trustworthy information intermediary has no reason to exist in the post-classified ads world:
Paul Ryan von Papen: GOP Not Donald Trump's Party: "It is no one person’s party... (Live from the Republicans' Self-Made Trump Hell)
...Donald Trump won the primary fair and square. As a party leader, as the highest elected official in the party, I have always felt a duty to the process, to democracy, to the primary voter who must be respected. And he won this fair and square. But no one person controls this party. This is a bottom-up, organic grassroots party based on conservative principles...
Presidential nominee Donald Trump, Vice Presidential nominee Mike Pence, and...
...seven politicians, four family members, and four on the "women's tour":
There are a huge number of Republicans who have endorsed Trump, are voting for Trump, have no elections of their own tomorrow, and yet are sitting on their hands. Why? Why not either go into opposition so you have post-catastrophe credibility, or get on the stump to help him so he won't be made at you when he pulls his eyeless-in-Gaza act starting Wednesday?
Peggy Noonan (November 5, 2012): Monday Morning: "We begin with the three words everyone writing about the election must say: Nobody knows anything. Everyone’s guessing...
One of far too few Republican mensches, I must say...
Ana Navarro: [I'm voting for Hillary Clinton and against Donald Trump]: "I didn't want to write this. I avoided making a decision as long as I could...
Harold Pollack: When you vote, it’s not about you or your preferred candidate: "When you vote, it’s not about you or your preferred candidate...
...A friend writes that it’s difficult for him to get excited about voting for Hillary Clinton, since he is so much more excited by Sanders, and he’s correspondingly disappointed to be on the losing end. I get that. It stinks to lose. The only thing worse than losing is to to lose in slow motion, while you are expected to put on a happy face about it. It’s important to remember something, too.
Betsy Hodges: [("Donald Trump, you need to know a few things about] Minnesota that your ignorant tirade in Minnesota today revealed you do not know and I fear you are incapable of understanding:
Drew Brighton and Bryan Whitaker: America’s Early Vote has surpassed 40 million nationwide: "TargetSmart continues to collect individual-level early vote data...
...from Secretaries of State in early-voting states across the country... [which] allows us to analyze American early voters in very insightful ways. Diving into these 42,135,837 early voters, we find some interesting things...
Must-Read: Cosma Shalizi vs. the Econometricians:
Cosma Shalizi: Advanced Data Analysis from an Elementary Point of View: "It Is also important to be clear that when we find the regression function is a constant...
OK: I guess Minneapolis to Detroit to Pittsburgh makes some sense. But then Leesburg VA? And why then go all the way to Tampa? And then back to Raleigh, Scranton, and Manchester?
Paul Ryan had a choice: he could have shaped his future political career as the sensible Republican Speaker who had moderated Democratic policy initiatives and made Washington work. Or he could have shaped his future career as another raving loony nutcase who strove to the last to try to make Donald Trump President, get caught between the millstones of the Teabaggers to his right and deserting moderate ex-Republicans and the demographics to his left, and be ground to dust.
Paul Ryan has chosen:
Paul Ryan: The Choice Facing America: "Hillary Clinton... has offered no new ideas...
Why the Republicans have made and dragged us into their Trump hell. In America today, party affiliation reflects character:
Matthew Yglesias: @mattyglesias: "This is absolutely correct. But the corollary is GOP elected officials' failure of character has been massive."
Michael B Dougherty: [@michaelbd]: "It’s boring to say it. But the best explanation of how people are going to vote next week is their party affiliation, not their character."
Those with character are or soon will be ex-Republicans.
People like Ari Fleischer are why the Republicans are in their self-made Trump hell--and have dragged the rest of us in here with them:
Kyle Cheney: @kyledcheney: "Five weeks ago, Ari was featured in a Trump press release announcing the "Bush Alumni Coalition" for Trump."
Katie Glueck: _@katieglueck: ".@arifleischer, one of the most prominent Bush admin alums to back Trump, has now decided he can't vote for him..."
Kaili Joy Gray: @KailiJoy: "TLDR Ari Fleischer: I'm not voting for president because I'm a coward who doesn't want to save this country"
Let us dispel with the fiction that today's Republican Party, with a primary-voting base that can nominate a Trump, and an establishment of office holders, donors, and apparatchiks that can fall in line behind him, is not an existential threat to America:
Brendan Nyhan: @BrendanNyhan: "Trump's pivot wasn't to the center...
...but to a new divide in American politics that would fundamentally change the party system if Republicans adopt it. Reminder: Not a word of this is conservative. Trying to shift axis of conflict to cosmopolitanism vs. race-inflected version of nationalism:
Live from the Journamalists' and Republicans' Self-Made Trump Hell:
Julian Sanchez: @normative:
He's actually half Elder God. They shortened it from Pseudopodesta when his family came to the U.S. https://t.co/0ZgTSX8lE8— Julian Sanchez (@normative) November 4, 2016
Clinton advisor Podesta is a sex magic witch, per Drudge Report via Infowars via Wikileaks (seems legit) https://t.co/dmRBZfs3P5— xeni (@xeni) November 4, 2016
There is no silver lining from Donald Trump's winning the Republican primaries, or for 99% of the Republican Party's falling in line behind them. (Live from the Republicans' Self-Made Trump Hell)
If there were to be a silver lining, it is in the painful education it is providing--it is now impossible for Jews and Mormons to pretend that Republicans see them as "normal" people:
Kevin Cohen: @DudeMarmite:
Calling someone out for being a Jew ?— kevin cohen (@DudeMarmite) November 4, 2016
Unreal . https://t.co/Evti1pMsqS
Donald J. Trump: @realDonaldTrump:
I promise you that I'm much smarter than Jonathan Leibowitz - I mean Jon Stewart @TheDailyShow. Who, by the way, is totally overrated.— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) April 24, 2013
Jonathan Chait: Final Answer: Trump or the Republic?: "In 1994 Alan Sokal... submitted an article to Social Text, a journal of cultural studies...
Tom Levenson: Stamina! (And Tactical Thinking): "There’s quite a contrast. The Republican ticket lists only what the two principals are doing... (Live from Las Vegas and Omaha)
Josh Barro: [Democrats' treatment of Mitt Romney was justified]: "Anti-Trump conservatives have had the clarity to see that Donald Trump would make a very bad president, and to break with their team, often at some personal cost. I admire this... (Live from the Republicans' Self-Made Trump Hell)
Jonathan Chait: How Donald Trump Outsmarted George Will: "Conservative intellectuals took it as a given that Trump was alien to conservatism... (Live from the Republicans' Self-Made Trump Hell)
Julie Lythcott-Haims: (91) Gotta say I wasn't surprised when tech...: "Gotta say I wasn't surprised when tech billionaire Peter Thiel endorsed Trump... (Live from the Republicans Self-Made Trump Hell)
...Peter and I were dormmates at Stanford freshman year, and while I barely knew him - we ran in different circles - his fiercely Libertarian views were often a topic of conversation among those of us living in Branner Hall. One day I heard a rumor that Peter defended apartheid (which was then still the law of the land in South Africa), which I found morally repugnant.
Kevin Drum: Nightly News Takes a Dive on Issues This Year: "Hillary Clinton has talked plenty about issues in the conventional sense... (Live from the Journamalists' Self-Made Hell)
Paul Krugman: @paulkrugman: "Profiles in no courage... Live from the Republicans' Self-Made Hell)
Claire McCaskill: 'Majority' Of Senate Republicans Won't Vote Trump: "I believe, and I'm basing this on some of the things my colleagues have said to me... (Live from the Republicans Self-Made Trump Hell)
...I believe the majority of the Republicans in the U.S. Senate are not going to vote for Donald Trump.... They know that they can work with Hillary Clinton and get some things done.... I believe that a great number of them will not be voting for Donald Trump, and a great number of them will in fact vote for Hillary Clinton...
The divide between Democrats and Republicans in the United States in 2016 is best conceptualized as a divide between those who think that an America in which black, brown, yellow, red, etc. people vote is great, and a place in which they have a great deal to gain; and those who think that an America in which black, brown, yellow, red, etc. people vote is no longer great, and is a place in which they have something--maybe not a great deal if they do not have much, but something--to lose.
Let me start with the very sharp Francis Wilkinson's argument that the ressentiment driving the Republican Party today is not class-based--is not the result of the economic disappointments and difficulties suffered by the white working class over the past generation--but rather extends all the way up the income ladder:
Scott Lemieux: The Reformicon Faction Speaks: "[Shorter Ross Douthat:] 'The important thing... is not that conservatives dislike the potential substantive policy outcomes of a Supreme Court with a median Democratic-appointed vote, it’s that liberals lack a sufficiently rigorous constitutional grand theory. Hence, the ends justify any means..." (Live from the Republicans' Self-Made Trump Hell)
Caitlin MacNiel: Sucks To Be You! Trump Won’t Pay Pollster Almost A Million Bucks: "Donald Trump is stiffing the first pollster his presidential campaign hired--to the tune of almost $1 million.... The Trump campaign would not comment.... Fabrizio, a veteran GOP pollster, was hired by the Trump campaign in May at the recommendation of Paul Manafort, who has since left the campaign..." (Live from the Republicans' Self-Made Trump Hell)
Matthew Yglesias: @mattyglesias: "I think one driver of different views on the "economic anxiety" meme is how much of this stuff you get on a daily basis:
October 30, 2016 at 10:01 AM in Economics: History, History, Long Form, Moral Responsibility, Obama Administration, Philosophy: Moral, Political Economy, Politics, Streams: (BiWeekly) Honest Broker, Streams: (Tuesday) Hoisted from Archives, Streams: Across the Wide Missouri, Streams: Cycle, Streams: Economics, Streams: Equitable Growth, Streams: Highlighted | Permalink | Comments (12)
...People who know that it is absurd to say that the policies proposed by JEB! will produce 4%/year growth.
People who know that it is absurd to say that enacting Paul Ryan's deregulation agenda will rapidly boost U.S. GDP per capita to more than $300K/year.
And then there are people like:
Josh Jordan: Nate Silver’s Flawed Model: "The New York Times number cruncher lets his partisanship show...
...“Oh, people can come up with statistics to prove anything, Kent. Forty percent of all people know that.” — Homer Simpson.
In the days before the first debate in Denver, President Obama held more than a four-point lead in the Real Clear Politics average, and Romney had been left for dead by most of the media. Then the debate came, and overnight Romney seemingly rid himself of the weaknesses that had been tacked on to him by over $100 million dollars in negative advertising. Now here we are a few weeks later with a dead heat in nationwide polls.
October 29, 2016 at 05:30 AM in Economics: History, Economics: Inequality, Economics: Macro, History, Long Form, Moral Responsibility, Philosophy: Moral, Political Economy, Politics, Streams: (BiWeekly) Honest Broker, Streams: Cycle, Streams: Economics, Streams: Equitable Growth, Streams: Highlighted | Permalink | Comments (9)
Hoisted from 2012: [Is This the Silliest Thing Glenn Kessler of the Washington Post Has Ever Written?]: Suggestions for sillier things welcome:
Why and how the Republicans made their Donald Trump hell, in one sentence:
Michael Kranish (2012): The story behind Mitt Romney’s loss in the presidential campaign to President Obama: "As Romney’s campaign plane landed... at around 6 p.m. on Election Day, he turned on his iPad and opened the Drudge Report....
I have long thought somebody should go through and annotate the 2012 Mitt Romney: Full Transcript of the 47% Secret Video. So I will now do it. XXXI pieces, from soup to nuts, below the fold:
October 28, 2016 at 01:02 PM in Economics: Growth, Economics: Inequality, Economics: Macro, Long Form, Moral Responsibility, Obama Administration, Philosophy: Moral, Political Economy, Politics, Strategy, Streams: (BiWeekly) Honest Broker, Streams: (Tuesday) Hoisted from Archives, Streams: Across the Wide Missouri, Streams: Cycle, Streams: Economics, Streams: Equitable Growth, Streams: Highlighted | Permalink | Comments (1)
I have long thought somebody should go through and annotate the 2012 Mitt Romney: Full Transcript of the 47% Secret Video. So I will now do it.
Part XXVII: "Poor as a Church Mouse":
Shades of George W. Bush at the Al Smith dinner in 2000: "This is an impressive crowd, the haves, and the have-mores. Some people call you the elite. I call you my base..."
I would say that the Sulzburgers owe every subscriber to the New York Times as of January 1997 $1000 for their printing this. What say you all? (Live from the Journamalists' Self-Made Hell):
Duncan Black: The Greatest Hits of the 90s: "Everybody is getting nostalgic. Just so you're ready...
"I now know it is a rising, not a setting, sun" --Benjamin Franklin, 1787