If Google Drive is going to start running at 100% of a CPU and Google Chrome is going to start running at 20% of a CPU, together lowering my MacBookAir's battery life to 90 minutes, you are toast!
If Google Drive is going to start running at 100% of a CPU and Google Chrome is going to start running at 20% of a CPU, together lowering my MacBookAir's battery life to 90 minutes, you are toast!
Chris Hayes and Ezra Klein watch the toddlers on the bus--the American campaign press corps. The only solution I see is simply to shut them all down: the modern style of campaign coverage started by Teddy White in 1960 with his The Making of the President is pernicious and harmful. Its practitioners should all be sent to do something more useful. Proofreading Google Books comes to mind.
It is a matter insufficiently appreciated that there are very few high-wire acts without a safety net:
Mistermix: WhatsApp Moocher: "One of the founders of WhatsApp, the messaging app just purchased by Facebook for $19 billion, is a Ukranian immigrant who grew up in a family that needed food stamps after they first arrived in the US.
Because of that history, the founders signed the deal with Facebook at the Mountain View Social Services office, where his family would go for assistance. I just wanted to mention that to remind the McArdles of the world that not all American success stories involve feats of Galtian superheroics–some of the Howard Roarks of the world must eat actual food in order to survive.
Can we trust our Silicon Valley behemoths, our new "captains of industry" for the twenty-first century? Ben Thompson has an interesting take:
Ben Thompson: Microsoft v Microsoft: "In his first column for the New York Times, Farhood Manjoo advocated relying on Apple, Google, and Amazon:
When you decide what to use, you’ve got to play every tech giant against the other, to make every tech decision as if you were a cad — sample every firm’s best features and never overcommit to any one.
I rather agree with and follow Manjoo’s advice, and my reasoning is all about the incentives that arise from Apple, Google, and Amazon’s business models:
Anil Dash: What Medium Is:
First, some disclaimers: I’m writing this as I sit a few feet away from Medium’s NYC team. (I even asked them for tech support while writing this!) Ev Williams, founder of Medium, is an old friend of mine, whom I became a fan of as I was the first public user of Blogger, which he cofounded. And Ev explained the idea of Medium to me before he’d even decided on the name. So, in addition to offering the falsely-humble way of bragging that such disclosures always provide, it should be pretty clear that I’m far from objective about Medium. I like it, because I like blogging, and I want it to succeed. This piece originally appeared on Medium.
Marijana: MARCH 30, 2011: Yesterday at the Web 2.0 conference in San Francisco, Google’s Chief Economist Hal Varian dedicated his keynote speech to explaining the economic value of Google advertising and search... more than $119 billion[/year]...
James Somers on Douglas Hofstadter: The Man Who Would Teach Machines to Think:
Their operating premise is simple: the mind is a very unusual piece of software, and the best way to understand how a piece of software works is to write it yourself. Computers are flexible enough to model the strange evolved convolutions of our thought, and yet responsive only to precise instructions. So if the endeavor succeeds, it will be a double victory: we will finally come to know the exact mechanics of our selves--and we’ll have made intelligent machines....
Lance Knobel: So, Brad, one of your areas is economic history. I am curious: as we face this increasing automation, robotization, is this something that’s likely to be something we have seen before in economic history or is this time going to be different?
Brad DeLong: Well, it is always going to be different, because history does not repeat itself--although it does rhyme. The question is: how is it going to be different?
Looking back at all the major transformations in history before--as we have seen entire categories of things we do to add value to our society vanish--we always found new valued things for people to do. Technological unemployment has been a yearly thing, a decade thing, a generational thing perhaps--but never before more than a generational thing.
Joshua Bloom: Wealth and Labor in the Cognitive Automation Era:
Disruptive technologies have always been greeted with a concern—and many times a back reaction—by the institutions that they are, or are meant to, disrupt. In the startup world, we think about disruption as replacing established technologies and ways of doing things with compelling (and better) alternatives, challenging incumbent market dominants. But disruption also means changing how people work, and therefore also means upheaval in labor markets. [October 25], in the Uncharted Forum here in Berkeley, I discussed artificial intelligence on stage with former Deputy Assistant Secretary of the Treasury Brad DeLong (also a professor with me at Berkeley). Uncharted is a new ideas-exchange event modeled in part after SXSW, Ted and Davos.
Morning session I: Robots, architecture
October 25 @ 11:40 am - 12:40 pm
I, for one, welcome our new robot overlords. Brad DeLong in conversation with Joshua Bloom
What will increasing automation mean for our economy and our society? Will it exacerbate unemployment, or will it spur new industries? Are there some aspects of automation that we’re unlikely to accept?
The bridge to somewhere. Donald MacDonald in conversation with Felix Salmon
The architect of the new East Span of the Bay Bridge discusses the importance of bridges and what they can bring to an urban environment.
Start: October 25, 2013 11:40 am
End: October 25, 2013 12:40 pm
Event Category: Conversation
Four things create value:
And let me know that, as far back as we can tell, your status and standard of living depends on (a) the value you directly add and (b) what you are able to grab (and persuade others that you are right to grab) from our joint-product common store.
1:20 PM: Former NSA spy boss Michael Hayden on Acela behind me blabbing "on background as a former senior admin official" Sounds defensive.
1:21 PM: Hayden talking about a famous blackberry now.
1:23 PM: Hayden was bragging about rendition and black sites a minute ago.
1:26 PM: Michael Hayden on Acela giving reporters disparaging quotes about admin. "Remember, just refer as former senior admin" #exNSAneedsadayjob
1:27 PM: On Acela: Michael Hayden was talking to Massimo Calabresi at TIME I am pretty sure. Does he tweet?
1:29 PM: On Acela: former NSA spy boss Michael Hayden just ended last of handful of interviews bashing admin
1:34 PM: On Acela listening to former NSA spy boss Michael Hayden give "off record" interviews. I feel like I'm in the NSA. Except I'm in public.
1:35 PM: On Acela: phone ringing. I think the jig is up. Maybe somebody is telling him I'm here. Do I hide?
1:40 PM: New call. I am totally busted I think.
1:42 PM: I think I'm safe. Just passed Philly. No rendition yet. Do I have the balls to ask him for a photo? #haydenacela
1:46 PM: There is a faint smell of sulfur on the train. #Haydenacela
1:51 PM: New call just came in.
1:53 PM: On Acela: Hayden's comments to press were clearly about NSA spying on foreign allies. #haydenacela
1:57 PM: Win
I find myself disappointed that this has not yet jelled into something coherent--especially because there are now only 99 hours until I have to take the stage on Friday…
Let us start out with the view from 30,000 feet: What do we people do to add value? Eight things:
UCB Public Affairs: Festival of ‘uncharted’ ideas coming to downtown Berkeley:
Robots, technology, race, food justice and climate change are just some of the diverse and pressing topics up for discussion at “Uncharted: The Berkeley Festival of Ideas” Oct. 25 and 26. The downtown-Berkeley happening will feature a who’s who of speakers and lots of opportunity for participating “infovores” to interact, converse and imagine new futures.
Felix Salmon: Kill the sticky nav!:
It might have been the Slate redesign which pushed me over the edge, I’m not sure. Maybe it’s just PTSD from Reuters Next. But at this point I will seriously donate a substantial amount of money to anybody who can build a browser plugin which automatically kills all persistent navbars, or “sticky navs”… the single most annoying thing on the news web… overtaking even the much-loathed pagination…. Meanwhile, if you’re reading a story on Slate, then it all looks perfectly normal until you start scrolling down, at which point the persistent nav magically appears….
Tyler Cowen: Time management tips:
John Quiggin offers some time management tips over at CrookedTimber.org. I’ll second his call for a daily "word quota", but express horror at his notion that you should ever devote a morning to "8-10 jobs that ought to take 5 minutes each."
Here are my suggestions:
- There is always time to do more, most people, even the productive, have a day that is at least forty percent slack.
- Do the most important things first in the day and don’t let anybody stop you. Estimate "most important" using a zero discount rate. Don’t make exceptions. The hours from 7 to 12 are your time to build for the future before the world descends on you.
- Some tasks (drawing up outlines?) expand or contract to fill the time you give them. Shove all these into times when you are pressed to do something else very soon.
- Each day stop writing just a bit before you have said everything you want to. Better to approach your next writing day "hungry" than to feel "written out." Your biggest enemy is a day spent not writing, not a day spent writing too little.
- Blogging builds up good work habits; the deadline is always "now."
We are now ready to take the next steps in our successful "digital first" strategy. This is an exciting but also challenging opportunity for all journalists at the Financial Times. It means changes in work practices, a further shift of resources to ft.com and a significant reshaping of the newspaper.
Hal Varian: Hal Varian: the economics of the newspaper business:
Printed newspaper circulation has been declining for 50 years…. The internet is a superior way to distribute and read news…. The basic economic problem facing news is increased competition for attention…. Newspapers never made money from news…. Offline news reading is a leisure time activity, online news reading is a labor time activity…. Ad revenue depends on reader engagement…. Tablets give newspapers a way to reclaim some lost audience…. The fundamental challenge facing newspapers is to increase the time people spend on their content…
At 5 million current page views for her two-minute "I Quit!" video, the world's most famous #Mizzou graduate Marina Shifrin has absorbed 170,000 hours of the world's attention. Valueing attention at $10/hour, that is $1.7 million--two entire decade's worth of value at $85,000/year, generated by spending two hours making one two-minute video and then distributing it over Youtube. That's $850,000/hour--that's a lot of productivity.
John Stachurski and Thomas J. Sargent: Quantitative Economics: http://www.quant-econ.net/
Of course, Googling "Sargent Python" reveals it might be a very bad thing indeed:
Noah Smith has guestwebloggers: Not Quite Noahpinion:
Jeremie Cohen-Setton, Carola Binder, John Aziz, Josiah Neeley, Peter Dorman, Yichuan Wang, Guan Yang
John Gapper @johngapper: Off to Dubai for a few days. Last time I was there was pre-2008. I wonder what it's like now.
John Gapper @johngapper: The Emirates air stewardess just spilled a glass of champagne into my MacBook Air and killed it. Not really helping.
John Gapper @johngapper: I'm afraid I lost my temper.
John Gapper @johngapper: Ah well, it was an accident. Intrigued to see if they get me another one by the time weand in Dubai.
John Gapper @johngapper: PS I wasn't drinking the champagne, she was just walking past with it
Susan Nagy @Susan_Nagy 19m: .@johngapper @TheStalwart Nothing excites me more than the problems of the dull, rich and famous... #bubblywoes
Dina Medland @dinamedland: @Susan_Nagy @johngapper @TheStalwart it's all so very #snoringboring Expand
John Gapper @johngapper: @dinamedland @Susan_Nagy @TheStalwart touche
Dina Medland @dinamedland: @johngapper I'll stop now - hope your MacBook Air gets replaced :-) @Susan_Nagy @TheStalwart
J. Bradford DeLong @delong: 100 years from now .@johngapper will be the person used whenever “First World Problem” needs a definition :-) cc: @Susan_Nagy @TheStalwart
John Gapper @johngapper: @delong @Susan_Nagy @TheStalwart Nice to be remembered for anything. Can't be fussy.
Adam Engst: International Verify Your Backups Day:
I humbly submit that Friday the 13th, whenever it rolls around, should be considered International Verify Your Backups Day…. Take a few minutes to identify some critical files and see if you can restore them successfully from your backups. If a bootable backup is part of your backup strategy, make sure you can actually boot from it…. That’s it. No costumes are necessary, there’s no obligatory greeting, and you aren’t expected to make a special meal. If you feel the need to honor your successful verification, well, a little celebratory imbibing of your favorite beverage is never inappropriate.
One of the wonderful things about the internet is how it plays the Glass Bead Game with one, bringing together disparate trains of thought in unexpected ways. In this case, it was my running across a piece about the church in Texas that discourages vaccinations--and the resulting disease outbreak--immediately before finding, once again, Henry David Thoreau's rant about the uselessness of the telegraph.
But, this time, "whooping cough" had a very different valence. And so I reacted much differently than when I first studied the passage in English class at the Sidwell Friends High School in the late 1970s…
Thanks for contacting us. Below is a transcript of your recent chat with a Google Fiber Team Member:
[2:26 PM] Brad DeLong has joined the room
[2:26 PM] Robert has joined the room
[2:26 PM] Robert: Hi! Thank you for contacting Google Fiber. How can I help?
[2:27 PM] Brad DeLong: I am curious. We got Google Fiber this morning, and I find myself wondering if there is a way to show a Google Chrome browser window on the TV, or to mirror a Chrome browser window on the Nexus 7 on the big TV?
Felix Salmon: Chart of the day, Microsoft edition:
The numbers speak for themselves, really: over the course of Steve Ballmer’s tenure as Microsoft CEO, the company’s stock price has gone nowhere, its market share has plunged — but its headcount has more than trebled. And that’s before adding another 32,000 employees as part of the Nokia acquisition.
Philip Elmer-DeWitt: Ben Thompson: What if Steve Ballmer ran Apple?:
Skip Kara Swisher's gossipy piece about how it happened faster than Microsoft let on and go straight to Ben Thompson's If Steve Ballmer ran Apple on his stratechery blog…. Thompson--a former Microsoft Windows product manager--imagines what Apple's new CEO would do over the next five years, starting with the rollout of the iPhone 5C…. Thompson's punchline--which gets to the heart of the difference between Microsoft and Apple (AAPL)--is that if Ballmer ran Apple, the company would never again ship a disruptive new product.
The Sandbox of Brad DeLong: firstname.lastname@example.org
Ask to join by emailing your email to me at email@example.com…
Ryan Avent: Labour markets: On "bullshit jobs":
Productive jobs have, just as predicted, been largely automated away…. But rather than allowing a massive reduction of working hours…. we have seen the ballooning not even so much of the “service” sector as of the administrative sector…. Why in the world would firms spend extraordinary amounts of money employing people to do worthless tasks (especially when they've shown themselves to be exceedingly good at not employing people to do worthless tasks)? Says Mr Graeber: "The ruling class has figured out that a happy and productive population with free time on their hands is a mortal danger…."
I am immediately bursting with questions. Such as, should we conclude that protesters… are in fact too happy? How does the ruling class co-ordinate all this hiring, and if much of the economy's employment is useless in the first place why not just keep them on during recessions?
Content economics, part 3: costs: The Washington Post… was sold for less than the value of its pension…. What Bezos paid for the Post was… negative $88 million. To be sure, Bezos is $250 million out of pocket: the $333 million in the pension fund is ring-fenced for the Post‘s pensioners.
The first question is: How thoroughly is the pension money ring-fenced? Could Jeff Bezos take the pension fund and invest it in… junior debentures of the Washington Post for example? Will he? Bezos will personally own 100% of the stock of the Washington Post. But is there anything preventing him from making any cash he commits to the Post senior debt, and thus have an $333 million mezzanine cushion that must be burned through as a firewall in any liquidation before he is out more than his initial $250 million in cash?
Paul Krugman writes:
The Good Web: Jonathan Chait mocks Robert Samuelson for his column lamenting the rise of the Internet. I don’t especially want to pile on…
But even though he does not want to, and resists mightily, in the end he is compelled by an irresistible force to do so:
The effect of the Internet on the quality of reporting… has been overwhelmingly positive…. Economics reporting in the pre-Internet era… was terrible…. Reporters and pundits often knew little economics…. A reporter or pundit could say something that everyone who knew anything about the subject realized was all wrong, but those with better knowledge had no way of getting that knowledge out in real time. Let me give an example. A couple of years ago [Robert] Samuelson dismissed the relevance of Keynes, because conditions have changed; these days we have lots of debt, whereas:
When Keynes wrote “The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money” in the mid-1930s, governments in most wealthy nations were relatively small and their debts modest….
In the pre-Internet era, an assertion like that would simply have sat there; economists would complain about it in the coffee room, but that would be it. In this case, however, the whole econoblogosphere… point[ed] out that Britain’s debt/GDP ratio in the 30s was actually much higher than it is today…. Real journalists… benefit…. It’s true that there’s a lot of misinformation out there on the web; but is it any worse than the misinformation people used to get from other sources? I don’t think so…
Mistermix: The Fine Print:
From the Post’s mega-story….
The deal does not include the company’s headquarters on 15th Street NW (the building has been for sale since February) or Foreign Policy magazine, the Web sites Slate and the Root, the WaPo Labs digital development operation, or Post-owned land along the Potomac River in Alexandria.
Bezos bought everything that he needed to print the paper, as well as the metro area papers, which supply stories to the mothership. He didn’t buy anything he didn’t strictly need to run the Post–-those he left in care of the Post stockholders and the Graham family, who are now proud owners of a test-cramming company. If I worked at Slate, I’d be polishing my résumé.
This is double-plus-ungood: yesterday the Washington Post's expected lifespan was less than a decade, and there was no way it could burn through more than $250M before being shut down. Today that budget constraint is gone, and Jeff Bezos is willing to pour money into the Post while he experiments. This is cause for great celebration if you work at the Post--there will be more to do, more resources to deploy, and the possibility of something other than a medium-term end.
But, apparently, it was not cause for great celebration on the part of the Post's print staff:
What… [did Nate Silver get] right during the election[?] The typical answer to this is, well, “the election.” But getting the election right was no great feat. The betting markets got the election right. The pollsters got the election right. The polling aggregators, like Real Clear Politics, got the election right. The modelers--which included Silver, but also included Sam Wang and Drew Linzer, among others--got the election right. Wonkblog’s election model called the election right… in June….
The American Historical Association strongly encourages graduate programs and university libraries to… embargo… completed history PhD dissertations in digital form for… six years…. University presses are reluctant to offer a publishing contract to newly minted PhDs whose dissertations… [are] available… online sources…. Students who must post their dissertations online immediately after they receive their degree can find themselves at a serious disadvantage in their effort to get their first book published….
Nate Silver and ESPN to reboot FiveThirtyEight.com as a data-driven news site: Statistician Nate Silver rose to prominence by accurately forecasting the results of the 2008 presidential election as an independent blogger and the 2012 presidency as a writer at The New York Times. But on Friday, Silver moved over to ESPN, and sports is only part of the story. In the next couple months, Silver will be relaunching his website, FiveThirtyEight.com, as an ESPN backed publication. The new FiveThirtyEight will be a standalone website that uses a data to tell stories and make predictions on sports, politics, economics, culture, science, and technology, ESPN said in a statement. Silver will run the new site as editor-in-chief, overseeing a team of writers and editors.
A GRANTLAND FOR DATA JOURNALISM
ESPN took a similar approach back in 2010 when it launched Grantland, a website run by sports writer Bill Simmons that brings a long-form journalism approach to sports and culture. Silver will also serve as an occasional political analyst for ABC News which, like ESPN, is owned by The Walt Disney Company.
Back in the old days, computer scientists funded by the Defense Advanced Projects Research Administration (DARPA) worried greatly about how their proto-internet, the Advanced Research Projects Administration Network (ARPANET) might appear as a frivolous gossip-fest to accountants, inspector generals, and legislators anxious to show that they were flint-eyed custodians of the public purse. Hence they strongly requested that people, especially people with guest accounts, not mention ARPANET in non-Department of Defense contexts.
And that was how in 1985 science-fiction writer Jerry Pournelle got himself kicked off the ARPANET:
But, @Prozakonomi, David Graeber claims I want to be him. But I don’t want to be a person who thinks the Fed loans to banks at Prime Rate! I don't want to be a person who thinks that deposits are assets to a bank!! I really do not want to be such a person!!! #GraeberErrors
A correspondent asks: "Is it possible that we are no longer as tolerant about right-wing b/s from faux wannabe technocrats desperate to strike a bipartisan balance or find excuses for Republicans as we were 15 years ago? Perhaps it is that the financial crisis and the ensuing Great Recession focused our minds, and it did not focus theirs, and the weakness of their thinking and their models became glaringly obvious to us." That may be part of it. Rather more of it, from my perspective at least, is their reaction to Obama. For somebody like Clive Crook, Obama ought to be the Second Coming: rhetorically impressive, a living demonstration that he quality of opportunity is very real, And so damned bipartisan centrist in his policies it makes my teeth hurt--George H.W. Bush's security policy, Jeb Bush's immigration policy, Bill Clinton's tax policy, John McCain's climate policy, Mitt Romney's health-care policy, and no tolerance for mortgage cramdown or bank nationalization or great government spending missions. In the 1990s, their reaction to Bill Clinton was: "Is a lying lecherous hick from Arkansas, and I can't trust him and don't support him." And they had a point. But the same "I can't trust him and don't support him"--attitude toward Obama? This "he has governed as a divider by proposing John McCain's climate policy, Bill Clinton's tax policy, and Mitt Romney's health-care policy"? And fewer excuses were made for Gingrich than have consistently been made and are currently being made for McConnell and Boehner.
@Pawelmorski The endnotes for the later chapters also really interesting, fwiw. Long discussion of Gorton.— Matthew C. Klein (@Matthew_C_Klein) June 14, 2013
The U.S. Economy Still Isn't Churning: "My Bloomberg View colleague Matthew Klein just weighed in… saying that the rise in the number of people quitting is a good thing. He's right: Quits show the employee's confidence that he or she can find a better job. There's a counterpoint, though. The rate of labor market 'churn' -- the number of people moving from job to job per quarter -- dropped by 2.3 million during the recession and hasn't recovered…. Low churn means that people may be choosing to hold down jobs that aren't quite right for them…. 8.7 million Americans found a job or left one in April -- down 2 million from pre-recession levels… weak demand for labor… clogs up the cycle of job openings, hires, fires and quits. You have to be brave to leave a job amid high unemployment and little hiring -- but with few quitters, positions don't open up and so the low churn persists…. The Fed is watching the unemployment rate, but its statements indicate it also considers 'additional measures of labor market conditions'. Churn should be one of those. The ultimate task of labor markets is to allocate workers to positions -- and churn measures that directly. That it hasn't improved since the recession means that labor markets are much less healthy than falling unemployment might suggest:
Kurt Opsahl and Trevor Timm:
ANDREA MITCHELL: “Why do you need every telephone number? Why is it such a broad vacuum cleaner approach?”
JAMES CLAPPER: “Well, you have to start someplace.”
—NBC Meet the Press, this past Sunday
Concerned about the surveillance of millions of ordinary Americans, last year Senator Ron Wyden asked Director of National Intelligence James Clapper, Jr. a simple question: "Does the NSA collect any type of data at all on millions or hundreds of millions of Americans?"…
DNI Clapper’s answer was simple: "No, sir… not wittingly."
This just is not true. We’ve known for years… and now we know that the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court issued an order in April requiring Verizon to hand over all call records…. DNI Clapper’s statement was not the truth.
Michael Tomasky emails:
Democracy Journal: The evidence has been in for years -- supply-side economics is a failure. But why do so many people still accept it? Partly because in all those years, our side hasn't really developed a compelling alternate theory about how the economy can grow.
Enter middle-out economics, a discourse that sees investment in the middle class, not the top 1 percent, as the true source of prosperity. In our centerpiece symposium, Eric Liu & Nick Hanauer, Neera Tanden, Bruce Bartlett, Mona Sutphen, and other distinguished thinkers propose a coherent and persuasive middle-out program.
When Adrian Hon started his http://mssv.net, it had three columns: one column was for what we now would call tweets, or supertweets; one column was for weblog posts; and one column was for longer pieces--articles, say. This seemed to me to be a good way to try to organize the stuff one was putting online.
So I have been--for those who want the articles and only the articles--started slowly populating http://delong.typepad.com/delong_long_form/ with things present and past…
The hope is that I can then figure out a good format to present @delong on twitter, Grasping Reality, delong_long_form, and probably https://www.rebelmouse.com/delong/Highlighted/--and that there will be advantages to such a presentation, as I think there were powerful advantages to the initial format Adrian Hon was experimenting with with