Democracy in America: As Michael Barone continually points out, President Bush carried 255 of America's 435 congressional districts when he beat John Kerry. "In the short run," wrote Mr Barone in 2005, "very few Republicans run great political risks by supporting Bush. Significantly more Democrats run great political risks by opposing him."
Well, that didn't work.... Based on Swing State Project's numbers, which don't yet include Alabama, California, Indiana, Missouri, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Oklahoma or Texas, Mr Obama carried at least 34 districts that Mr Bush carried in 2004. When all the states' numbers are in, we're likely to find that he carried as many or more as Mr Bush did at his apogee....
What does this mean for the Democrats? They only get to fight one more election on this map, after which states will undergo redistricting. But this map had been crafted, in large part, by Republicans. They controlled most governors' mansions and state legislatures in 2001, and they drew boundaries in states such as Michigan, Illinois and Florida to send the maximum number of Republicans to Congress. It's unlikely that they can improve on their numbers with Democrats so much stronger in the states, with louder voices in redistricting.
Also, this means that the current Democratic majority is the most stable in decades. Even when Bill Clinton won the presidency, his Democratic Congress included members from ruby-red Republican districts in the South that Republicans were able to flip when the incumbents retired. Mr Obama's (and Mrs Pelosi's) majority is built on safe seats on the west coast, in the southwest, in the midwest, in pockets of the new South, and in the northeast. On the Swing State Project map, only 25 Democrats represent districts carried by Mr McCain, most of them in the deep South and three of them in Mr McCain's Arizona, which resisted the Democratic surge. And many of those seats—rural New Mexico-02, the University of Virginia-centered Virginia-06—registered huge gains from Mr Kerry's performance to Mr Obama's. They have gone from safe Republican seats to swing seats.
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