The Unequal World: Has Resource Access Had an Important Role to Play?: Econ 115: Problem Set 3

https://nbviewer.jupyter.org/github/braddelong/econ-115-f-2020-assignments/blob/master/ps03.ipynb
https://www.bradford-delong.com/2020/10/the-unequal-world-has-resource-access-had-an-important-role-to-play-econ-115-problem-set-3.html

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Review: Exponential Growth & Dataframe Access: Econ 115: Problem Set 7

https://github.com/braddelong/econ-115-f-2020-assignments/blob/master/ps07.ipynb
https://nbviewer.jupyter.org/github/braddelong/econ-115-f-2020-assignments/blob/master/ps07.ipynb
https://www.bradford-delong.com/2020/10/review-exponential-growth-dataframe-access-econ-115-problem-set-7.html

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Disaster Capitalism: DevEng 215 2020-10-22

https://www.icloud.com/keynote/05yW08oQvx5uDpAZcxmObZsZA
https://github.com/braddelong/public-files/blob/master/deveng-215-2020-10-22.pptx
https://www.bradford-delong.com/2020/10/disaster-capitalism-deveng-215-2020-10-22.html

This incorporates-by-reference the readings & lectures from week 9 of Joeva Rock's Fall 2020 instantiation of GPP 115...

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Briefly Noted for Tu 2020-10-20

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Daniel Davies: Book Talk—Lying for Money: How Legendary Frauds Reveal the Workings of Our World https://watson.brown.edu/events/2020/book-talk-dan-davies-lying-money-how-legendary-frauds-reveal-workings-our-world...

Cities with More than 10000 Population https://www.evernote.com/l/AAHhz3j2xe1PY4XJUj0HaDcRMn0VD2bgtqcB/image.png...

Half the World Population https://www.evernote.com/l/AAETx7xhCWVPmbK_sKWWe2Nl2oc6ETuYnTEB/image.png...

Population Density https://www.evernote.com/l/AAFG80xx73hPrJ-o7SASlYf1AOAHSm_LndkB/image.png...

Sidney Kaplan (1976): The "Domestic Insurrections" of the Declaration of Independence https://github.com/braddelong/public-files/blob/master/readings/article-kaplan-domestic-insurrections.pdf...

Nisreen Alwan: What Exactly Is Mild Covid-19? https://github.com/braddelong/public-files/blob/master/readings/article-alwan-mild-covid-19.pdf...

Persi Diaconis & Frederick Mosteller: Methods for Studying Coincidences https://github.com/braddelong/public-files/blob/master/readings/article-diaconis-coincidences.pdf...

Stephen Pulvirent: Hodinkee Radio Episode 107: All About the Apple Watch https://www.hodinkee.com/articles/hodinkee-radio-episode-107-apple-watch-alan-dye: ‘A comprehensive deep-dive into Apple's latest smartwatch…

Anna Mikusheva & Jim Stock (2007): Weak Instruments https://ocw.mit.edu/courses/economics/14-384-time-series-analysis-fall-2013/lecture-notes/MIT14_384F13_lec7and8.pdf: ‘Anderson-Rubin (1949) https://www.evernote.com/l/AAGO6SDBHehDP6AIs3ixnvRIAO0W38s2P10B/image.png https://www.evernote.com/l/AAH4RvtsQutIcoIV5gw7ku-orITWdgvgD-oB/image.png...

Arjun Jayadev & Mike Konczal (2010); The Boom Not The Slump: The Right Time For Austerity https://web.archive.org/web/20110802015309/http://www.rooseveltinstitute.org/sites/all/files/not_the_time_for_austerity.pdf: ‘Such a conclusion is unmerited. The overwhelming majority of the episodes used by A & A did not see deficit reduction in the middle of a slump. Where they did, it o#en resulted in a decline in the subsequent growth rate or an increase in the debt-to-GDP ratio. Of the 26 episodes that they identify as ‘expansionary’, in virtually none did the country a) reduce the deficit when the economy was in a slump and b) increase growth rates while reducing the debt-to-GDP ratio…

 

Plus

Mary Daly: Interview https://www.wsj.com/articles/transcript-wsj-interview-with-san-francisco-fed-president-mary-daly-11602788005 'The bridge… over the coronavirus depends considerably on fiscal agents doing the part that they need to do to…. Without that fiscal stimulus, my outlook is quite a bit more muted. And whether it’s next month or the month after probably doesn’t determine the outlook for the next couple of years, but it definitely does determine how much suffering and pain many American households face.

Wendy Edelberg & Louise Sheiner: What Could Additional Fiscal Policy Do in the Next Three Years? https://www.brookings.edu/research/what-could-additional-fiscal-policy-do-for-the-economy-in-the-next-three-years/: ‘We find that enacting all five of those illustrative policies and increasing federal spending by $2 trillion would raise the level of real (i.e, inflation adjusted) GDP by 0.2 percent in 2020, 4.0 percent in 2021 and 2022, and 1.6 percent in 2023 above the level it would otherwise be (authors’ calculations). If all five policies were enacted, economic activity would return to its projected path prior to the pandemic by the third quarter of 2021. Under current law, that return likely would not occur for perhaps as long as a decade…

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Briefly Noted for 2020-10-16

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Philippe Weil (1989): The Equity Premium Puzzle & the Riskfree Rate Puzzle https://github.com/braddelong/public-files/blob/master/readings/article-weil-1989-riskfree.pdf...

Donald Harris: Introduction to Bukharin: “Theory of the Leisure Class” https://github.com/braddelong/public-files/blob/master/readings/article-harris-bukharin-intro.pdf

Constance L. Hunter: Economic Outlook: Riding the COVID-Coaster https://github.com/braddelong/public-files/blob/master/readings/presentation-hunter-covid-coasterpresentation-hunter-covid-coaster.pdf

Joan Robinson: Rereading Marx https://github.com/braddelong/public-files/blob/master/readings/article-robinson-rereading-marx……

Vanessa Stovall: A Tale of Two Creons: Black tragedies, White anxieties, and the Necessity of Abolition https://medium.com/corona-borealis/a-tale-of-two-creons-black-tragedies-white-anxieties-and-the-necessity-of-abolition-4d1816ce3f7a...

Athol Fugard, John Kani, & Winston Ntshona: The Island (Play) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Island_(play)

Emmanuel Saez & Gabriel Zucman: The Rise of Income & Wealth Inequality of America: Evidence from Distributional Macroeconomic Accounts https://www.law.nyu.edu/sites/default/files/The%20Rise%20of%20Income%20and%20Wealth%20Inequality%20in%20America-%20Zucman.pdf...
 Scott Hanselman (2014): Virtual Machines, JavaScript and Assembler https://youtu.be/UzyoT4DziQ4?t=94

 

Plus:

I must say, the world-historical reception of Karl Marx would have been very different had he stuck to his initial word choices, and not substituted "bourgeoisie" and "bourgeois" for what he had originally called "Juden" and "Judentum" as labels for his concepts: Shlomo Avinieri (2019): Karl Marx: Philosophy & Revolution https://github.com/braddelong/public-files/blob/master/readings/book-avineri-marx.pdf: ‘In German parlance of the time, Judentum also stood for commerce, trade, huckstering in general, just as the English verb “to jew” (now excised from the Oxford English Dictionary) used to mean “to cheat.” So when Marx says that American society is the apotheosis of the power of “Judaism” or that society should be emancipated from the thrall of “Judaism,” there is a subtext here: contemporary readers would recognize that he was not writing just about Jews. Fear of censorship might also have convinced Marx to use the colloquial Judentum rather than “capitalism.” Second, and ironically, Marx’s identification of Judaism with capitalism has a paradoxical literary origin. It appears for the first time in Germany in an article by Marx’s socialist colleague Moses Hess called “On Money” [Über das Geldwesen]…

Really, really not my favorite person. Someone who knows nothing at all about how market economies work, and yet thinks his political allegiance to something he calls "Marxism" makes him an expert. The U.S. in 2008-9 was—as anyone looking at interest rates would know—very far indeed from exhausting its debt capacity: David Harvey (2009): Why the U.S. Stimulus Package Is Bound to Fail https://delong.typepad.com/sdj/2009/02/department-of-huh-in-praise-of-neoclassical-economics-department.html: ‘Any attempt to find an adequate Keynesian solution has been doomed at the start.... A Keynesian solution would require massive and prolonged deficit financing.... The problem for the United States in 2008-9 is that it starts from a position of chronic indebtedness to the rest of the world (it has been borrowing at the rate of more than $2 billion a day over the last ten years or more) and this poses an economic limitation upon the size of the extra deficit that can now be incurred. (This was not a serious problem for Roosevelt who began with a roughly balanced budget). There is also a geo-political limitation since the funding of any extra deficit is contingent upon the willingness of other powers (principally from East Asia and the Gulf States) to lend…

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Briefly Noted for 2020-10-14

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Excellent to watch to see Michael Kades present his point-of-view on video: Michael Kades: Proposals to Strengthen the Antitrust Laws & Restore Competition Online https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=--jXAdjieTo

Ta-Nehisi Coates: Leak: The Atlantic Had A Meeting About Kevin Williamson https://www.huffpost.com/entry/leak-the-atlantic-had-a-meeting-about-kevin-williamson-it-was-a-liberal-self-reckoning_n_5ac7a3abe4b0337ad1e7b4df: ‘Black writers... would be brought in... [to] give a view of black life that I felt like very few black people actually would recognize themselves in their own private spaces.... I got incredibly used to learning from people... who... were fucking racist.... I didn’t... have the luxury of having teachers who... saw me completely as a human being.... I couldn’t speak to Andrew on the blog the way I would speak to my wife about what Andrew said on the blog in the morning when it was just us…

Neel Kashkari: Why I Dissented https://medium.com/@neelkashkari/why-i-dissented-feb698ae4d08: ‘We misread the labor market.... We heard repeatedly from businesses who complained that... we had a “historic worker shortage.”... [My] proposed language guards against the risk of underestimating slack.... We would only lift off... [after] core inflation... had... actually hit or exceed[ed] 2 percent...

God! He's long-winded: Joseph Schumpeter: Fiat Money & Social Product https://github.com/braddelong/public-files/blob/master/readings/article-schumpeter-fiat-money-and-social-product.pdf...

Forbes: Schumpeter & Keynes https://www.forbes.com/2007/10/10/schumpeter-keynes-economics-biz-cz_pd_1011schumpeter.html#182b9957d4f7: ‘THE TWO MEN WERE NOT ANTAGONISTS.... While Schumpeter considered all of Keynes' answers wrong, or at least misleading, he was a sympathetic critic…

Forbes: Schumpeter & Keynes https://www.forbes.com/2007/10/10/schumpeter-keynes-economics-biz-cz_pd_1011schumpeter.html#182b9957d4f7: ‘Keynes, in turn, considered Schumpeter one of the few contemporary economists worthy of his respect. In his lectures he again and again referred to the works Schumpeter had published during World War I, and especially to Schumpeter's essay on the Rechenpfennige (i.e., money of account) as the initial stimulus for his own thoughts on money…

Bapu Jena & al.: Acute Myocardial Infarction Mortality During Dates of National Interventional Cardiology Meetings https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/29523525/

Tim Miller: Actually, Virtue Signaling Is Good https://thebulwark.com/actually-virtue-signaling-is-good/...

Kate Bahn: 'Unemployment Benefits Initial Claims https://twitter.com/LipstickEcon/status/1311648495300947968 [are] not good... have plateaued around 800,000 [per week] for the last 8 weeks... at the level and about the length (from my eyeballing) of the peak during the Great Recession.... It's just so bad…

Franklin Delano Roosevelt: 1933 Inaugural Address https://www.c-span.org/video/?5792-1/president-roosevelt-1933-inaugural-address https://avalon.law.yale.edu/20th_century/froos1.asp

Tim Duy: Trump Kills Fiscal Stimulus Negotiations https://blogs.uoregon.edu/timduyfedwatch/2020/10/06/trump-kills-fiscal-stimulus-negotiations/: ‘From a campaign perspective, it seems ludicrous.... Ultimately, I think McConnell just isn’t willing to get a deal done.... Interestingly, Trump’s abandonment of fiscal stimulus comes soon after the latest plea from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell for additional support for what he sees as a still struggling economy...

Vladimir Lenin (1917): State & Revolution https://github.com/braddelong/public-files/blob/master/readings/book-lenin-1917-state-%26-revolution.pdf

Leon Smolinski: Lenin & Economic Planning https://github.com/braddelong/public-files/blob/master/readings/article-smolinski-lenin.pdf

Carl Shapiro & Hal Varian (1998): Information Rules: A Strategic Guide to the Network Economy https://books.google.com/books?id=aE_J4Iv_PVEC

Ryan McMorrow, Nian Liu, & Sherry Fei Ju: The Transformation of Ant Financial https://github.com/braddelong/public-files/blob/master/readings/articler-mcmorrow-ant.pdf

Josef Schumpeter (1917): Fiat Money & the Social Product https://github.com/braddelong/public-files/blob/master/readings/article-schumpeter-fiat-money-and-social-product.pdf

Mall History: Ku Klux Klan Rally http://mallhistory.org/items/show/175: ‘In 1925 the Ku Klux Klan (KKK) marched down Pennsylvania Avenue in Washington, DC. The organized event brought 25,000 members in full regalia to the city…

EPI: The Productivity–Pay Gap https://www.epi.org/productivity-pay-gap/

Eric Lemieux: This Day in Labor History: July 28, 1932 https://www.bradford-delong.com/2016/07/liveblogging-history-july-28-1932-the-bonus-army.html: ‘On July 28, 1932, the U.S. Army 12th Infantry regiment commanded by Douglas MacArthur and the 3rd Calvary Regiment, supported by six battle tanks commanded by Major George Patton violently evicted the Bonus Army from their Washington, D.C. encampment. This violent action and horrible treatment of impoverished veterans shocked the American public and demonstrated the utter indifference of Herbert Hoover to the desperate poverty the nation faced…

 

 

Plus:

John Bellamy Foster: On the Laws of Capitalism https://monthlyreview.org/2011/05/01/on-the-laws-of-capitalism/#en19: ‘The Socialist Party of Boston wrote to the Harvard economics department, proposing a debate on capitalism and socialism.... The debate was held... with Sweezy and Schumpeter as the two protagonists, before a packed audience in Harvard’s Littauer Auditorium…. Leontief, as chair, summarized.... "The patient is capitalism. What is to be his fate? Our speakers are in fact agreed that the patient is inevitably dying. But the bases of their diagnoses could not be more different. On the one hand there is Sweezy, who utilizes the analysis of Marx and of Lenin to deduce that the patient is dying of a malignant cancer. Absolutely no operation can help. The end is foreordained. On the other hand, there is Schumpeter. He, too, and rather cheerfully, admits that the patient is dying. (His sweetheart already died in 1914 and his bank of tears has long since run dry.) But to Schumpeter, the patient is dying of a psychosomatic ailment. Not cancer but neurosis is his complaint. Filled with self-hate, he has lost the will to live. In this view capitalism is an unlovable system, and what is unlovable will not be loved. Paul Sweezy himself is a talisman and omen of that alienation which will seal the system’s doom...

 

Om Malik: Apple Watch’s Sensory Overload https://om.co/2020/09/15/apple-watchs-sensory-overload/: ‘Longtime readers are familiar with my theory around hyper-personalization, and Apple has brought that to a mass-produced product. Oh, and it also tells time!" || This Mirror with Sensors Points to a New Connected Future. Here Is Why https://om.co/gigaom/this-mirror-with-sensors-points-to-a-new-connected-future-here-is-why/: ‘By offering a uniquely/hyper personal experience, simplehuman can go from being an invisible brand to one that is center stage in our minds. Think of it this way—connectivity and sensors allow us  to turn any large-scale platform into a personal one. Call me crazy, by when we add a dash of connectivity to those omnipresent sensors then interesting and/or magical things can happen...

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Briefly Noted for 2020-10-12

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Wikipedia: Martha Gellhorn https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Martha_Gellhorn

Martha Gellhorn: The Face of War https://github.com/braddelong/public-files/blob/master/readings/book-gellhorn-face.pdf...

Yun Sheng: Little Emperors: Memoir of an Only Child https://www.lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v38/n10/sheng-yun/little-emperors

Evan Cheng & Sandi Khine: Over 100 Faculty Sign Open Letter Calling for Faculty Senate to Reconsider Hoover Institution’s Relationship with Stanford https://www.stanforddaily.com/2020/09/23/over-100-faculty-sign-open-letter-calling-for-faculty-senate-to-reconsider-hoover-institutions-relationship-with-stanford/

Matthew Yglesias: One Billion Americans: The Case for Thinking Bigger https://www.amazon.com/One-Billion-Americans-Thinking-Bigger-ebook/dp/B082ZR6827

PAA DEI Committee: Demographics of Racial Violence https://us02web.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_pbVXnchhQtac5enVKSPzxw

Ursula K. LeGuin (1973): The Ones Who Walk Away from Omelas https://github.com/braddelong/public-files/blob/master/readings/story-leguin-omelas.pdf...

Wikipedia: The Ones Who Walk Away from Omelas https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Ones_Who_Walk_Away_from_Omelas...

Gabrielle Bellot (2017): Ursula Le Guin’s “The Ones Who Walk Away from Omelas” Defies Genre https://www.tor.com/2017/08/07/ursula-le-guins-the-ones-who-walk-away-from-omelas-defies-genre/...

Our World in Data: Coronavirus Pandemic https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

Wikipedia: Sophie, Duchess of Hohenberg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sophie,_Duchess_of_Hohenberg

Wikipedia: Vaso Čubrilović https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vaso_%C4%8Cubrilovi%C4%87#World_War_II_and_later_life

KJV: Revelation 6 https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Revelation%206&version=KJV: ‘And I saw when the Lamb opened one of the seals, and I heard, as it were the noise of thunder, one of the four beasts saying: "Come and see!"…

Manton Reece: Micro.blog 2.0 Makes It Easier to Customize Your Blog https://news.micro.blog/2020/09/29/press-release-microblog.html

Nic Newman: The Resurgence & Importance of Email Newsletters http://www.digitalnewsreport.org/survey/2020/the-resurgence-and-importance-of-email-newsletters/: ‘Email newsletters... are proving increasingly valuable to publishers looking to build strong direct relationships with audiences…

Noah Smith: The Late '10s Were Better for Incomes than the '90s https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-09-23/median-household-income-grew-more-in-the-10s-than-the-90s...

Claudia Foroni, Massimiliano Marcellino, & Dalibor Stevanovic: Forecasting the COVID-19 Recession & Recovery https://voxeu.org/article/forecasting-covid-19-recession-and-recovery: ‘Adjusting for forecasting errors made during the financial crisis of 2007-2009 better aligns the COVID forecasts with observed data. The results suggest a slow recovery to pre-COVID-19 levels, lasting several years…

 

Plus:

George-Marios Angeletos & Chen Lian: Confidence & the Propagation of Demand Shocks https://github.com/braddelong/public-files/blob/master/readings/article-angeletos-%26-lian-confidence.pdf: 'Intertemporal substitution in production... rational confusion (or bounded rationality) in consumption. The first element allows aggregate supply to respond to shifts in aggregate demand.... The second introduces a “confidence multiplier,” namely a positive feedback loop between real economic activity, consumer expectations of permanent income, and investor expectations... [that] amplifies the business-cycle fluctuations triggered by demand shocks (but not those triggered by supply shocks); it helps investment to comove with consumption; and it allows front-loaded fiscal stimuli to crowd in private spending...

 

Duncan Dowson & Bernard Hamrock (1980): History of Ball Bearings https://ntrs.nasa.gov/citations/19810009866: ‘The familiar precision rolling-element bearings of the twentieth century are products of exacting technology and sophisticated science. Their very effectiveness and basic simplicity of form may discourage further interest in their history and development. Yet the full story covers a large portion of recorded history and surprising evidence of an early recognition of the advantages of rolling motion over sliding action and progress toward the development of rolling-element bearings. The development of rolling-element bearings is followed from the earliest civilizations to the end of the eighteenth century. The influence of general technological developments, particularly those concerned with the movement of large building blocks, road transportation, instruments, water-raising equipment, and windmills are discussed, together with the emergence of studies of the nature of rolling friction and the impact of economic factors. By 1800 the essential features of ball and rolling-element bearings had emerged and it only remained for precision manufacture and mass production to confirm the value of these fascinating machine elements...

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Boushey: The New Employment Data—Noted

This is significantly better in terms of the employment report than I was expecting to see. It heartens me about the economy for the third quarter and maybe the fourth. But it depresses me about 2021, as it seems to indicate a lot of the country’s decision makers are not taking the virus as seriously as they should Perhaps this week will change their minds:

Heather Boushey: New Employment Data https://twitter.com/HBoushey/status/1312007393480511490: ‘The economy added 661,000 jobs in September.... We are still down 10.7 million jobs.... People searching for work for 27 weeks or more rose by 781,000 to 2.4 million. Regular unemployment benefits end after 26 weeks. Congress will need to act to extend the # of weeks for these benefits.... Given that the pandemic isn't over, the change in this # concerns me: "22.7 percent of employed people teleworked in September because of the coronavirus pandemic, down from 24.3 percent in August." Employers brought folks back to work in September: Of those who are no longer unemployed, 1.5 million of them had been on temporary layoff. Yet, at the same time, 345,000 people transitioned from temporary to permanent layoff…

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The Great Depression in Context: The World Economy in the 20th Century: Module 5 Intro Video

Link to Interactive Recording: https://share.mmhmm.app/674d81473029474195eb45ef0445a2c3 5:37

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