The Recession Is Now--Probably--Three Months Old

Jeannine Aversa of AP:

Jobless Claims Shoot Up to 2-Year High: WASHINGTON (AP) -- The number of new people signing up for unemployment benefits last week shot up to the highest level in more than two years, fresh evidence of the damage to a national economy clobbered by housing, credit and financial crises.

The Labor Department reported Thursday that new applications filed for unemployment insurance jumped by a seasonally adjusted 38,000 to 407,000 for the week ending March 29... worse than economists had anticipated. They had predicted claims would be much lower, around 365,000.

A government analyst said some of the big increase in claims may have been related to an early Easter holiday this year, where claims that weren't filed or processed during the holiday week were pushed forward into the following week.

Still, looking at the longer-term trend there was little doubt of the pickup in unemployment filings. A year ago, new claims stood at 319,000.

Meanwhile, the number of people continuing to collect unemployment benefits rose by a sharp 97,000 to 2.94 million for the week ending March 22, the most recent period for which that information is available. That was the highest since July 17, 2004....

For the first time, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke acknowledged on Wednesday said the country could be heading toward a recession. Many other economists and the public believe it's already there. Employers cuts jobs in January and February, and economists are predicting more losses when the government releases the March employment report on Friday.