Open Left:: A 2.2% McCain lead is greater than a 13.8% Obama Lead
Consider this map, from tonight's Washington Post:
Yep. The Post says that 168 electoral votes are "leaning Democratic," that 174 electoral votes are "leaning Republican," and that 196 electoral votes are in swing or battleground states.
Let us turn the microphone over to Chris Bowers:
Open Left:: A 2.2% McCain lead is greater than a 13.8% Obama Lead: The Washington Post maintains a webpage titled "Political Landscape 2008." This webpage has been updated recently enough to reflect Obama's 13.8% polling lead in Pennsylvania, a trend that uses polls released as recently as Wednesday. On this webpage, the Washington Post collects recent polling data, and then declares a state to either be a "battleground," or leaning toward one party or the other. Here are some of their polling averages and diagnoses:
Obama +13.8%: Battleground state (PA)
Obama +10.4%: Battleground state (NH)
Obama +10.0%: Battleground state (NJ)
Obama +9.5%: Battleground state (IA)
Obama +9.0%: Battleground state (OR)
Obama +8.2%: Battleground state (MN)
Obama +8.2%: Battleground state (MI)
Obama +8.8%: Battleground state (WI)
Obama +7.3%: Battleground state (NM)
McCain +6.8%: Leaning Republican (GA)
Obama +5.1%: Battleground state (VA)
Obama +4.0%: Battleground state (CO)
McCain +3.8%: Leaning Republican (IN)
Obama +3.5%: Battleground state (OH)
Obama +3.1%: Battleground state (FL)
Obama +3.0%: Battleground state (NV)
McCain +2.2%: Leaning Republican (WV)Notice anything wrong with this list? Could it perhaps be that any state where McCain leads, no matter his margin, is defined as "Leaning Republican?" Could it be that states where Obama leads by 7.3%-13.8% are defined as "battleground states," while states where McCain leads by 2.2%-6.8% are defined as "leaning Republican." Does the uneven math in this strike anyone as problematic?
Bowers is wrong: Missouri, where McCain leads by 0.4%, is classified as a swing or a battleground state. Not every state where McCain leads, no matter his margin, is defined as "Leaning Republican." One such state is not.
I would say that this is part of the Washington Post death spiral watch. But the Washington Post is not in a death spiral. It has crashed and burned.
Why oh why can't we have a better press corps?