Taylor Rule Says: Put Interest Rates at Zero

In an email from Macroeconomic Associates:

The economic outlook has taken a turn for the worse in recent weeks, as credit conditions have deteriorated further, equity prices have plunged, and economic data have come in weaker than expected. These developments prompted us to release the interim forecast last Friday, which showed a deeper recession, a higher path for the unemployment rate, and a lower path for inflation. This commentary considers the monetary policy response to such a dire forecast using the benchmarks offered by our forward-looking and backward-looking policy rules. These rules suggest that there is a risk that the FOMC could lower the federal funds rate to zero.