Neurological Evidence of Money Illusion
Geithner Plan Roundup

OK, Stocks for the Very, Very Long Run...

John Authers claims that from 1969-2009 U.S. ten-year Treasury bonds provide as high returns as stocks:


Posted via web from at Brad DeLong's Scrapbook.

I get that bonds are still beating stocks by 1.2% per year since 1969. I will investigate...

And, of course, since the start of the Cowles Commission index in 1870 stocks are still beating long-term Treasuries by 3.3% per year; since the start of the twentieth century stocks are still beating bonds by 3.6% per year; and since the end of World War II 3.6% as well.

Of course, going forward the current value of the Graham Ratio--of stock prices to the ten-year lagged moving average of real earnings--predicts that stocks will beat ten-year Treasuries by an average of 7.5% per year over the next decade...



U.S. Treasury - Daily Treasury Yield Curve