links for 2009-09-21
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Regarding ‘warlords’ it would be helpful to have a bold admission that the original forces of Alaric, Geiseric or Clovis, usually described as peoples or tribes, were in fact mercenary armies recruited on Roman soil and named for the ethnic origin of their leader. Regarding ‘the break-up,’ most likely it was not Huns, but a Roman struggle for power in 405 that set off a series of events leading directly to the break-up. When Stilicho finally hired Alaric, in that year, to support his intended attack on the east, the great eastern minister Anthemius responded in kind by hiring Radagaisus and Godegisil to raise armies in Pannonia and create a diversion in the west. Goffart made such a suggestion on p. 79 of Barbarian Tides (2006), and I think that interpretation will ultimately prevail.
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To my mind, the willingness to lie and go along with crazy ideas is what defines neoconservativism. I wouldn’t say this with paleocons and theocons—with them, I usually feel like they’re stupid enough to believe in supply side economics or creationism (think Dan Quayle or Jack Kemp) or such assholes that they honestly like the idea of screwing the powerless (think Newt Gingrich or Mary Matlin). Neocons are often quite charming and seemingly intellectual—Brooks and Irving Kristol are classic examples—but they’re quite willing to lie about economics or about the price of meals at chain restaurants if it helps them attain their ultimate goal of invading Middle Eastern countries and sending men to Mars.
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To be successful, any feasible successor agreement must contain three essential elements: meaningful involvement by a broad set of key industrialized and developing nations; an emphasis on an extended time path of emissions targets; and inclusion of policy approaches that work through the market, rather than against it.
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Narayana Kocherlakota... says 'it's all good'. I'm not so sure. I got my PhD in econ... but after a year of introductory macro, and having one quarter with models from a Keynesian, another quarter with models from a supply-sider (eg, Kydland & Prescott), it was clear to me they were overfitting the data.... [In[ post World War 2 US data... there have been about 10 recessions. There are hundreds of time series.... Given the failure of economists to forsee the stagflation of the 1970s, the disinflation of the 1980s, the fall in velocity in the 1980s, the growth of the Asian Tigers, the relative productive power of capitalist economies (most thought the Soviet Union's savings rate would necessarily generate higher productivity in a generation circa 1960), it is difficult to see what what else is needed to be discouraged. I've made several strategic errors in my career; leaving macroeconomics was not one of them.
