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The Employment Picture: Time to PANIC!!


Calculated Risk: ADP: Private Employment increased by 38,000 in May: ADP reports:

Employment in the nonfarm private business sector rose 38,000 from April to May on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the latest ADP National Employment Report® released today. The estimated change of employment from March 2011 to April 2011 was revised down slightly to 177,000 from the previously reported increase of 179,000.


May’s ADP Report estimates employment in the service-providing sector rose by 48,000, marking 17 consecutive months of employment gains while employment in the goods-producing sector fell 10,000 following six months of increases. Manufacturing employment fell 9,000 in May following seven consecutive monthly gains.

Note: ADP is private nonfarm employment only (no government jobs).

This was well below the consensus forecast of an increase of 178,000 private sector jobs in May. The BLS reports on Friday, and the consensus is for an increase of 190,000 payroll jobs in May, on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis. This is a very weak ADP report - and more evidence that the BLS report will be below consensus on Friday.