Martin Wolf: Please, Please, Please, Please Listen to the Bond Market
Office Hours Today

Who, Exactly, Was Confident Back in 2010 That the Recovery Was Well-Established, and Why?

Political Animal  August job totals Zero

Duncan Black, too, is puzzled at how the journalistic narrative has come to be that it is a surprise that it is not "Morning in America" right now.

Duncan Black:

Eschaton: It's Always Morning In America: I've been thinking about the Politico article since it came out. If we look at the Scariest Chart ever… there was just never any reason for any confidence that the recovery was here. Benen's graph might make this a bit more clear. Basically we had two ok but not awesome months and one good month in summer of 2010 (aka Recovery Summer) and then 3 ok but not awesome months this past Spring...and from that, everyone thought we could declare victory and go home.

FRED Graph  St Louis Fed 6

When you consider that the recession of 1990-1 was followed by a two-year jobless recovery, and that the recession of 2001-2 was followed by a three-year jobless recovery, it is hard to see what empirically-based model of the economy would lead you to think that the recession of 2007-9 would not be followed by a corresponding jobless recovery...