War on Nate Silver: South of Silvergrad We Come Across the Shivering, Unarmed Remnants of Colonel Mustard's Forces Wandering the Kalmyk Steppe Begging to Be Fed:
Colonel Mustard--Professor William Jacobsen of Cornell--and his "troops":
Noted University of California – Berkeley economist J. Bradford DeLong has figured out why Mitt Romney is so far ahead in the Gallup tracking poll of likely voters. His theory is that Obama supporters like him are only now figuring out where to vote, so they do not pass Gallup’s likely voter screen. Apparently, when contacted by Gallup and asked whether he is likely to vote, DeLong responds “where?” Seriously.
MicahStone | October 28, 2012 at 7:23 pm What will be delong’s lame excuse AFTER Romney’s landslide win on Nov 6 ? (Yeah, we all know, it’s RACISM.)
sybilll | October 28, 2012 at 7:25 pm Excuse my language Professor, but Brad DeLong is a giant douchenozzle. I see his work at DU and on his blog, and bottom line, he is a pathetic fabricator that appears to be auditioning for a job at Media Matters.
SueAnne | October 28, 2012 at 7:27 pm Gives a whole new meaning to the phrase “low information voter”. And, does his polling place change that much from one election to another, or has it been that long since he last voted?
katalyst42 | October 28, 2012 at 7:30 pm What this guy really couldn’t pass is the Gallup OUGHT-to-be-a-voter screen.
raven | October 28, 2012 at 8:36 pm I have family there and visit often enough. It’s another world. Ironically it boasts of dynamism and ferment but rather is like the bewitched province that never changes or accepts change. There is no drearier burg in America. My cheap fun while visiting is to wear patriotic hats and lapels and take in the scandalized and hostile glances. Believe me, these besotted souls have no idea what’s coming.
heimdall | October 28, 2012 at 7:34 pm This is the quintessential problem with many polls this election year. Polls are getting nearly 90-95% pass through the likely voter screens where only 60-70% registered voters actually vote in presidential election years. They are now even further skewed with the early voting crap, which favors democrats by a very large margin. Gallup is doing it right with their questioning for their likely voter poll because the net is much tighter, just look at some likely voter polls from MSM outfits that show their sampling get MORE Democrat after their questioning. The MSM questions to determine likely voters are usually enthusiasm based, which is WAAAY too loose. That is why you are seeing many polls the way they are now. They are too loose with likely voter screens, DRI sample is completely off with scales tipped in favor of the Democrats, and/ or adjusting samples to have more women/ minorities/ young voters than there will ever be. And STILL, Romney leads or ties Obama in many of these polls. The most egregious examples are coming out of Ohio right now. Bottom line is though, Mitt Romney is going to win if he wins the popular vote by 4-5% like current polling is showing. The left is going to go into serious shock on election night.
NeoConScum | October 28, 2012 at 7:36 pm Michael Barone, nobody’s dummy, is now saying that this may very well be a 1980 type, late in the cycle, ‘landslide’ of the Reagan-Carter kind. My-O-My, how nice it would be to take it so BIG that the expected whiners & shriekers have NO traction for their post-election lies….
Mary Sue | October 28, 2012 at 7:37 pm Watching on Twitter, libs are working overtime to build narrative Romney is not leading national polls and Ohio firewall is insurmountable. Sure they’ve been working this narrative for a while now but today it is just astounding how dedicated they are to resurrect the magical air of inevitability. I am fully convinced some pollsters will go down with the ship. PPP just dumped a load of manure to feed the narrative, good Soros soldiers to the end. This is going to be painful to watch….
delong | October 30, 2012 at 10:16 am Indeed we do get a sample ballot telling us where our polling place is this time in early October. I typically put it in one of the desk cubbyholes and pull it out and look at it the weekend before election day in early November. Do you have a point?Brad DeLong
JerryB | October 28, 2012 at 7:46 pm Rush has it right. The polls are converging on reality so that on Nov. 7 they can claim competence. This election has been Romney’s for more than 6 months. Now for the MSM. Will some start covering Libya now that the writing is on the wall?…
DINORightMarie | October 28, 2012 at 8:16 pm Is this man supposed to be a brilliant genius or something? Kinda reminds me of the deer crossing lady caller…. And these lefties think they are oh! so brilliant!
JD61 | October 28, 2012 at 8:18 pm I love that the Obots are so unaware of what’s about to happen to their criminal leader.
JD61 | October 28, 2012 at 8:21 pm Monday’s Politico/Battleground poll has R +5….
ConserveLiberty | October 28, 2012 at 8:46 pm At this point they’re looking ahead to 11/7. If their constituents are so shocked that Romney actually won they can claim fraud or stupidity among the flyovers and deny there was a ‘MANDATE” accorded to Romney to govern. They’re always setting up the next day’s talking points….
TheFineReport.com | October 28, 2012 at 9:09 pm I guess DeLong probably has trouble putting his underwear on so it’s facing front. But probably not. He’s just spitting out lies for consumption by the zombies and by people whose egos are too tender to admit they are fools for supporting a moron as a president, and aiding in the destruction of their country. The bad news for liberals in denial: YOU WERE AND STILL ARE FOOL. YOU TERRIBLY DAMAGED OUR COUNTRY AND YOU DAMAGED YOUR CHILDREN’S FUTURE AND CHANGED THEIR AND OUR WAY OF LIFE FOR THE WORSE. LASTLY, DON’T BE LIKE DeLONG: MAKE SURE YOUR UNDERWEAR IS NOT ON BACKWARDS….
delong | October 29, 2012 at 6:36 am Sigh Usually the polling place is the elementary school. Sometimes it’s the fire barn. Occasionally it is somebody’s garage. Right now I don’t know which it is–and, as I said, won’t until the weekend before election day. But I am a very likely voter indeed. That’s a problem with Gallup’s likely voter screen. This election, there are five interesting things about the polls that call for explanation:
- RAND has a huge pro-Obama house effect, and nobody knows why–but perhaps it is because RAND does reinterviews, and this is a treatment that transforms uninformed voters into informed voters over time.
- Ramussen has a smaller pro-Romney house effect relative to the average poll, and people think it may be because it doesn’t call cell phones.
- State-level polls have a small pro-Obama effect, and nobody knows why.
- Polls that are willing to interview in Spanish have a pro-Obama house effect.
- Gallup’s polls of registered voters are squarely in the middle of the distribution of national polls, but its gap between registered and likely voters is roughly twice that of any other national pollster.
Some places on the internet and elsewhere are places where people bring information about these (and other questions) and try to figure out what is going on. Other places on the internet are like this.
J. Bradford DeLong….
Henry Hawkins | October 29, 2012 at 10:29 am In defense of DeLong, I would point out that not only do Democrats vote, many of them vote several times in any given election, often post-mortem. It doesn’t do well to vote multiple times at the same polling place, so they have to move around to various precincts. There are logistics!
delong | November 5, 2012 at 11:50 am And Gallup is now 48-48… Strikes me as a substantial win for the proposition that their likely voter screen is not very good until the week before the election, no? Mark your beliefs to market, people! Fat, drunk and stupid is no way to go through life!
delong | November 7, 2012 at 5:35 pm And now we know. A week out from the election, Colonel Mustard’s second favorite pollster misses a presidential election by 8%–and 3/4 of the error is in the likely voter screen… Come back to reality, people! You can mark your beliefs to market if you try!