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Can We See the Effects of the Play-or-Pay Obamacare Mandate in the Data Yet?

I am confident that as ObamaCare is implemented we will see some firms reconfigure themselves to rely more on part-time and less on full-time workers--and that this distortion will be one of the costs of ObamaCare. But I don't expect this to be a large effect. And I do not believe that we are seeing it yet. The rise in the relative number of part-time workers looks to be, so far, due 100% to the depression plus statistical noise due to the small sample of the CPS.

Is Obamacare Forcing You to Work Part Time Bloomberg

Wunderkind Evan Soltas agrees with me:

Is Obamacare Forcing You to Work Part-Time?: Here’s the next conservative argument against President Barack Obama's health care law: It’s causing employers to shift full-time workers into part-time. Too bad it’s wrong. The law requires employers to sponsor health insurance for all full-time employees. It defines “full-time” as 30 hours per week or more. To avoid that burden, conservatives are saying, businesses are replacing full-time positions with part-time ones.

Christopher J. Conover, a researcher at the right-leaning American Enterprise Institute, and Jed Graham, an economic-policy reporter, have recently stated the case in Forbes and Investor’s Business Daily…. [But] there’s no substantial evidence yet that employers are switching from full-time to part-time in response to health-care law. I do think that will happen sometime -- the cutoff is indeed a strong incentive for employers to reduce work hours…

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