2020 Instantiation Links: https://delong.typepad.com/teaching_economics/2020/01/135-2020-instantiation.html
Course Purpose and Acknowledgement: https://delong.typepad.com/teaching_economics/econ-gr-purpose.html
Course Assessment: https://delong.typepad.com/teaching_economics/econ-gr-assessment.html
Office hours: https://delong.typepad.com/teaching_economics/office-hours.html
Preliminaries: https://delong.typepad.com/teaching_economics/preliminaries.html
Before Class Begins: https://delong.typepad.com/teaching_economics/before.html
Introduction: https://delong.typepad.com/teaching_economics/intro.html
Robert Solow's Growth Model: https://delong.typepad.com/teaching_economics/solow.html
Malthusian Perspectives: https://delong.typepad.com/teaching_economics/malthus.html
Determinants of Ideas Growth: https://delong.typepad.com/teaching_economics/ideas.html
Simulating the Solow Growth Model: https://delong.typepad.com/teaching_economics/simulating-solow.html
Malthusian Agricultural Economies: https://delong.typepad.com/teaching_economics/maa.html
Civilization Efflorescences: https://delong.typepad.com/teaching_economics/efflorescences.html
Commercial Revolutions
The Industrial Revolution
Why Northwest Europe?
Modern Economic Growth
U.S. Economic Ascendancy
Globalization Advances and Retreats
Convergence and Its Absence
Inequality and Plutocracy
The Development of Underdevelopment
Historical Patriarchy: https://delong.typepad.com/teaching_economics/historical-patriarchy.html
Assignments:
- Course FAQ Question https://delong.typepad.com/teaching_economics/faq.html...
- Letter to GSI https://delong.typepad.com/teaching_economics/letter.html...
- 'What Is Economics?' https://delong.typepad.com/teaching_economics/what-is-economics-assignment.html...
- Was Agriculture All a Big Mistake? https://delong.typepad.com/teaching_economics/agriculture-mistake.html
- Assignment: Solow Growth Model Simulations https://delong.typepad.com/teaching_economics/simulate.html...
- Slow technological and organizational progress before 1500
- Post-1500 growth accelerations
- Character of modern economic growth
- Growth models problem set
- Pre-1914 international economic divergence
- Why convergence (sometimes) happens
- Convergence and divergence
- "Deep roots"
- Global warming
Jan 14: Introduction: Economic Growth in Historical Perspective, Human Beings and Their Economies
Jan 21: The Broad Sweep: Herding and Agriculture, Long Run Economic Growth and Stagnation, Growth Theory Basic Building Blocks, The Beginning of Modern Economic Growth, Modern Economic Growth and U.S. Economic Ascendency, Late Nineteenth Century Globalization/Retreat, Convergence and Its Absence, Why Did Sustained Growth Spread to Some Places and Not Others?, The Concentration of Wealth, The Flap of the Butterfly Wing
Feb 25: Midterm 1
Feb 27: A Tour of the Continents: Europe, The Americas, Long Run Economic Development in Asia and Africa, Behind the Iron Curtain, East Asian Miracles
Mar 17 Scattered Issues: Geography and Economic Growth, Growth and Fluctuations, Global Warming and Poverty, Trade and Development, Foreign Military Intervention, Foreign Aid, Kleptocracy and Organized Crime
Apr 16: Midterm 2
Apr 21: What We Know: The Pace of Economic Growth, The Meaning and Measurement of Economic Growth
Apr 28: The Future:
Apr. 30: Review Q&A
Overview:
- Malthusian Eras and After https://delong.typepad.com/teaching_economics/malthus-and-after.html: Gregory Clark (2005): The Condition of the Working Class in England, 1209-2003 https://delong.typepad.com/files/clark-condition.pdf; Ian Morris (2010): Why the West Rules–For Now, chapter 3: Taking the Measure of the Past. An overview of economic growth across time.
- The International Context Since the Industrial Revolution: Lant Pritchett (1997): Divergence, Big Time. An overview of post-1800 economic growth across space.
- The Uncertain Pace of Growth: William Nordhaus: Do Real-Output and Real-Wage Measures Capture Reality?
The East African Plains Ape:
- Gift-Exchange and Human Sociability: Paul Seabright: In the Company of Strangers; Joseph Henrich (2016): The Secret of Our Successes: How Culture is Driving Human Evolution, Domesticating Our Species, and Making us Smarter. Chapters 1-5. Gift exchange, trust, fictive kinship, and consensus. Personification, altruistic punishment, vulnerability to the grift.
- Market Economies and the Division of Labor: Avinash Dixit: Economics: A Very Short Introduction; Adam Smith (1776): An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations. Division of labor, money, credit, and trust.
- Anthology Intelligences: Speaking, listening, writing, and reading.
The Broad Pre-Industrial Sweep:
- Herding and Agriculture: Jared Diamond (1997): The Worst Mistake in the History of the Human Race; Jared Diamond (1997): Guns, Germs and Steel, chapter 4 pp. 85-92. What caused the transition to farming and herding and what were its consequences?
- Basic Growth Theory: David Weil (2005): Economic Growth, chapters 1 and 2. Basic theoretical building blocks: The Solow growth model and the poverty trap model.
- Malthusian Logic: Why was economic growth not sustained for thousands of years after the Neolithic Revolution?
- Marriage Patterns and Macroparisites:
- Law-and-Order and Luxuries:
- Ancient High Civilization Rise and Decline: Maya: Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson (2012): Why Nations Fail, chapter 5 “Growth under Extractive Institutions” Section 4; Simon Martin and Nikolai Grube (2000): Chronicle of the Maya Kings and Queens: Deciphering the Dynasties of the Ancient Maya, Introduction pp. 6-23, Tikal pp. 24-53, Palenque pp. 154-175, Copan, pp. 190-213; David L. Webster (2002): The Fall of the Ancient Maya, chapters 7 and 10. Why was economic growth not sustained for thousands of years after the Neolithic Revolution?
- Ancient High Civilization Rise and Decline: Rome: Karl Polanyi: Aristotle Discovers the Economy; Moses Finley: The Ancient Economy; Aelius Aristides: The Roman Oration; Willem M. Jongman (2007): Gibbon was Right: The Decline and Fall of the Roman Economy https://delong.typepad.com/jongman-gibbon-was-right.pdf; Ian Morris (2004): Economic Growth in Ancient Greece; Peter Temin: The Roman Market Economy. Liberty and Incorporation of others into the polity
- Patriarchy and the Upper Class: Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson (2012): Why Nations Fail, chapter 5 “Growth under Extractive Institutions” sections 1-3; The Man Who Saw All Things (Gilgamesh). Thugs with spears, thugs with calendars, thugs with spreadsheets
The Broad Sweep: Post-Malthusian:
- Beginnings of Modern Economic Growth: Western Europe: David Landes (2006): Why Europe and the West? Why Not China?; Joel Mokyr (1990): The Lever of Riches, chapter 5 “The Years of Miracles”. Why did sustained economic growth begin when it did? There are many theories about why the remarkable economic growth that has characterized the past 200 years began when and where it did.
- Beginnings of Modern Economic Growth: Britain: Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson (2012): Why Nations Fail, chapter 7 “The Turning Point”; Robert Allen: The British Industrial Revolution in Comparative Perspective. Why did sustained economic growth begin in England and not elsewhere? There are many theories about why the remarkable economic growth that has characterized the past 200 years began when and where it did.
- 1870 as the Inflection Point.
America Takes the Lead: Claudia Goldin and Lawrence Katz: The Race Between Education and Technology; David Donaldson and Richard Hornbeck: Railroads and American Economic Growth: A Market Access Approach. Why did the U.S. industrialize rapidly starting in the nineteenth century? Why did some parts of the U.S. industrialize earlier than others?
American Slavery: Fred Bateman and Thomas Weiss (1981): A Deplorable Scarcity: The Failure of Industrialization in the Slave Economy. Why did some parts of the U.S. industrialize earlier than others? What role did slavery and its legacy play in U.S. economic growth?
1850-1914 Globalization and Prosperity Advance: W. Arthur Lewis (1978): Evolution of the International Economic Order; Guillaume Daudin et al.: Globalization 1870-1914; Barry Eichengreen (2008): Globalizing Capital: A History of the International Monetary System; Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels (1848): The Communist Manifesto; Norman Angell (1909): Europe's Optical Illusion.
1900-1935 Globalization and Prosperity Retreat: Vladimir Lenin (1902): What Is to Be Done?; John Maynard Keynes (1919): The Economic Consequences of the Peace; John Maynard Keynes (1924): The End of Laissez Faire; Karl Polanyi (1944): The Great Transformation; George Orwell (1936): The Road to Wigan Pier; Ernest Gellner (1973): Scale and Nation.
The Absence of Convergence: J. Bradford DeLong (1986): Productivity Growth, Convergence, and Welfare; Lant Pritchett (1997): Divergence, Big Time.
Growth Breakthroughs: Robert Allen: Global Economic History: A Very Short Introduction.
Poverty Traps: Aart Kraay and David McKenzie (2014): Do Poverty Traps Exist? Assessing the Evidence.
Geography: Jeffrey D. Sachs (2003): Institutions Don't Rule: Direct Effects of Geography on Per Capita Income; Jared Diamond (1997): Guns, Germs and Steel, chapter 4 pp. 85-92; Melissa Dell et al. (2009): Temperature and Income: Reconciling New Cross-Sectional and Panel Estimates
Institutions: Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson, and James Robinson (2006): Institutions as a Fundamental Cause of Long-Run Growth.
Culture: Nathan Nunn (2012): Culture and the Historical Process.
Plutocracy: Industrial-Society Birth Pangs: Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels (1848): The Communist Manifesto; Karl Marx (1849): Wage-Labor and Capital.
Plutocracy: Broad Patterns: Thomas Piketty: Capitalism in the Twenty-First Century
Plutocracy: The Second Gilded Age: Paul Krugman (2014): Why We’re in a New Gilded Age
Path Dependence in the Small and the Large: Paul David (1985): Clio and the Economics of QWERTY; Melissa Dell (2015): Path Dependence in Development: Evidence from the Mexican Revolution; Hoyt Bleakley and J. Lin (2012): Portage and Path Dependence. The Flap of the Butterfly Wing: Path dependence and economic development: Many of the studies considered thus far examine how major ways in which societies were organized historically can have important long-run consequences for economic growth. To what extent do smaller, typically inconsequential events have important long-run impacts? How much should our view of the world be one in which the influence of history can be very non-linear and highly persistent?
A Tour of the Continents: Reversals of Fortune?, &c.:
Daron Acemoglu et al., (2002): Reversal of Fortune: Geography And Institutions in the Making of the Modern World Income Distribution.
Europe: Britain: The Lever of Riches, chapter 10 “The Industrial Revolution: Britain and Europe”.
Europe: France: Daron Acemoglu et al. (2009): The Consequences of Radical Reform: The French Revolution.
Europe: the Rest of the Continent: Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson (2006): Economic Backwardness in Political Perspective.
The Americas: Bad Institutional Luck?: Melissa Dell (2010): The Persistent Effects of Peru's Mining Mita. Why is the U.S. much richer than Latin America? Why are some places in Latin America so much poorer than others? Does inequality play a role in explaining these income differences? What about other differences in historical institutions?
The Americas: Bad Factor Endowment Luck?: Stanley Engerman and Kenneth Sokoloff (2002): Factor Endowments, Inequality, and Paths of Development Among New World Economics.
The Americas: Toward a Synthesis: John Coatsworth (2008): Inequality, Institutions and Economic Growth in Latin America; John Coatsworth (2005): Structures, Endowments, and Institutions in the Economic History of Latin America.
Africa: Slavery: Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson (2010): Why is Africa Poor?; Nathan Nunn: The Long Term Effects of Africa's Slave Trades; Nathan Nunn and Leonard Wantchekon (2011): The Slave Trade and the Origins of Mistrust in Africa.
Africa: Geography: Nathan Nunn, and D. Puga (2012): Ruggedness: The blessing of bad geography in Africa.
Africa: Colonialism: S. Michalopoulos and E. Papaioannou (2014): National Institutions and Subnational Development in Africa.
Southeast Asia: Melissa Dell et al. (2015): State Capacity, Local Governance, and Economic Development in Vietnam; Anthony Reid (1993): Southeast Asia in the Age of Commerce, 1450-1680, chapter 1 “The Age of Commerce, 1400-1650”, chapter 4 “Problems of the Absolutist State”, chapter 5 “Origins of Southeast Asian Poverty”.
The Middle East: Sevket Pamuk (2014): Institutional Change and Economic Development in the Middle East, 700-1800.
Behind the Iron Curtain: Really Existing Socialism?: Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels (1848): The Communist Manifesto; Vladimir Lenin (1902): What Is to Be Done?; Rosa Luxemburg (1918): The Russian Revolution; Richard Ericson: The Classical Soviet-Type Economy: Nature of the System and Implications for Reform
Is Russia a North Atlantic Economy?: Robert Allen (2011): The Rise and Decline of the Soviet Economy.
After the Fall: Simeon Djankov (2015): Russia's Economy under Putin: From Crony Capitalism to State Capitalism.
East Asian Micracles: Background and Foundations: Peter Evans (1995): Embedded Autonomy: States and Industrial Transformation, chapter 1; Dwight Perkins (2013): East Asian Development: Foundations and Strategies, chapter 3 “Government Interventions versus Laissez-Faire in Northeast Asia.
Japan:
Taiwan and Korea: Dani Rodrik: Getting Interventions Right: How South Korea and Taiwan Grew Rich
The Central Country: Yingyi Qian; Xiaodong Zhu (2012): Understanding China’s Growth: Past, Present and Future.
The Past and Future of Manufacturing Export-Led Growth:
Scattered Issues: Growth and Fluctuations:
The Great Depression and World War II: John Maynard Keynes (1926): The Economic Consequences of Mr. Churchill; Christina D. Romer (2013): Lessons from the Great Depression for Policy Today; John Maynard Keynes (1931): Unemployment as a World Problem; Taylor Jaworski and Price Fishback (2014): World War II
The Asian Crisis of 1998 and the Great Recession of 2009: Andrew Berg: The Asian Crisis; Philip Lane: The European Sovereign Debt Crisis; Lawrence Summers: Reflections on the ‘New Secular Stagnation Hypothesis
Global Warming: Melissa Dell et al. (2012): Temperature Shocks and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Last Half Century. How is global warming impacting economic growth?
Global Warming and Global Poverty: Melissa Dell et al. (2014): What Do We Learn from the Weather? The New Climate-Economy, sections 1 and 3. Does it differentially impact poorer countries? Will it increase conflict?
Trade and Development:
Value Chains and Development: D. Atkin (2014): Endogenous Skill Acquisition and Export Manufacturing in Mexico
Investment and Development: H.W. Singer (1950): The Distribution of Gains Between Investing and Borrowing Countries.
Trade and Geopolitics: D. Berger era al. (2013): Commercial Imperialism? Political Influence and Trade During the Cold War.
Soft-Power Pressure, Neo-Imperialism, and Growth: Melissa Dell and Pablo Querubin (2016): Nation Building in Vietnam; C. Appy (2015: The Vietnam War and Our National Identity; A. Dube et al. (2011): Coups, Corporations, and Classified Information. What are the impacts of foreign military intervention on governance, civic society, and economic development? Can a state be built in a weakly institutionalized society through military intervention, or is such an approach likely to backfire? How does politics in the intervening country impact how foreign interventions are conducted? We examine these questions in the context of one of the largest foreign nation-building interventions of the past century: the Vietnam War.
Foreign Aid: Nathan Nunn and Nancy Qian (2014): U.S. Food Aid and Civil Conflict; Alberto Alesina and David Dollar (2000): Who Gives Foreign Aid to Whom and Why? Can foreign aid be an effective means of promoting economic growth? This lecture will consider a range of evidence, from the Marshall Plan and economic aid to East Asia in the 1950s to food aid today.
Technical Assistance: J.A. Yage (1988): Transforming Agriculture in Taiwan: The Experience of the Joint Commission on Rural Reconstruction, chapter 1.
Mafiyas: Charles Tilly (1974): Forward to A. Blok: The Mafia of a Sicilian Village, 1860-1960: A Study of Violent Peasant Entrepreneurs; Melissa Dell (2015): Trafficking Networks and the Mexican Drug War; D. Gambetta (1996): The Sicilian Mafia: The Business Of Private Protection, chapter 1.
What We Know**:
The Pace of Economic Growth:
The Meaning and Measurement of Economic Growth:
The Twentieth Century: Andrea Boltho and Gianni Toniolo: The Assessment: The Twentieth Century.
The Near-Term Future of Economic Growth: The North Atlantic: Robert Gordon: The Turtle’s Progress
The Near-Term Future of Economic Growth: The World: Dani Rodrik (2013): The Past, Present and Future of Economic Growth.
The Near-Term Future of Economic Growth: Economic SuperPower Succession
The Singularity?
80 Minute Lecture Skeleton:
Warm-Up (10 minutes):
- 1 qualitative review question
- 1 BIG IDEA question
- 1 calculation question
- 2 minutes: what did we learn last time?
- 5 minute discussion
3 Core Modules:
- (17 minutes): Lecture/Document/Tools/Tools Application/Open-Ended Question Discussion
- (3 minutes): Structured Review Questions
- (3 minutes): Pick 2 or 3 from 5 questions: calculation, main point takeaway, why aren't answers 25-25-25-25?, why this is important, what didn't I say?
Afterwards:
- 1 free-form lecture response question (response emailed)
In-class exercises: 1/3 of a point for answering more than 2/3 of iClicker questions; 1/3 of a point for getting at least 1/3 of iClicker questions right; 1/3 of a point for post-lecture response...
SHOEBOX:
The fall of the Roman Empire in the west: implications for literature and literary culture: Erich Auerbach: Mimesis https://www.bradford-delong.com/2019/10/erich-auerbach-_mimesis_-gregory-of-tours-serious-local-fighting-arose-at-that-time-between-inhabitants-of-the-regio.html: 'Gregory of Tours: "Serious local fighting arose at that time between inhabitants of the region of Tours. For Sicharius, son of the late John, celebrated the feast of the Nativity of Our Lord at the village of Manthelan with Austrighiselus...
Milton Friedman (1982): Free Markets and the Generals https://www.bradford-delong.com/2019/10/milton-friedman-1982-free-markets-and-the-generals-weekend-reading.html...
Orlando Letelier: (1976): The ‘Chicago Boys’ in Chile: Economic Freedom’s Awful Toll: Hoisted from the Archives https://www.bradford-delong.com/2019/10/orlando-letelier-1976-the-chicago-boys-in-chile-economic-freedoms-awful-toll-hoisted-from-the-archives.html...
The Song Dynasty revolution: Doug Jones: A Cycle of Cathay https://logarithmichistory.wordpress.com/2019/10/20/a-cycle-of-cathay-2/...
Doug Jones: Empires and Barbarians https://logarithmichistory.wordpress.com/2019/10/20/empires-and-barbarians-5/...
I suspect that this will be to the taste of very few people who read this. But I think that this—and Marshall Berman (1982): All That Is Solid Melts into Air http://books.google.com/?isbn=0860917851 is well worth your attention. One way to approach it is to note that back before 1500 humanity's collective technological and organizational possibilities grew at a proportion rate of something like 0.04% per year. Now they grow at 2% per year. Thus changes in what we can do and how we can organize ourselves to do it that used to happen over a 50-year timespan now take place in one revolution around the sun. Thus "modern" people must continually reinvent and reinvent ourselves in a way very foreign to all of the memory of our past historical experience. What are the consequences of this? Humanist late-twentieth century New York CUNY Marxist took a stab...
Note to Self: We hear a lot about the military revolution at the end of the sixteenth century https://www.bradford-delong.com/2019/10/note-to-self-we-hear-a-lot-about-the-military-revolution-at-the-end-of-the-sixteenth-century-we-hear-about-gustaf-adolf.html: We hear about Gustaf Adolf, about Maurice van Nassau, even about (the earlier) Gonsalvo de Cordoba. We hear about the effective use of firearms and cannon. Discipline. Logistics—both ammunition supply and keeping guys fed and (relatively) plague free. And we hear of the victories won by Maurice van Nassau and Gustaf Adolf of Sweden over the half-modernized Spanish and Austrian armies, just as we hear of the victories won a century earlier by Gonsalvo de Cordoba and his half-modernized tercios over the unmodernized Italian mercenaries and French cavaliers. But we don't hear much about similarly striking victories won a little bit earlier somewhat further to the east. We hear little about Babur the Mogul or about Mehmet II the Conqueror of the House of Osman...
- Adrian: The 1600 Military Revolution and the Islamic World https://www.bradford-delong.com/2019/10/adrian-_the-1600-military-revolution-and-the-islamic-world_-since-the-turn-of-the-millennium-there-has-been-a-fast-de.html#more https://www.bradford-delong.com/2019/10/note-to-self-we-hear-a-lot-about-the-military-revolution-at-the-end-of-the-sixteenth-century-we-hear-about-gustaf-adolf.html?cid=6a00e551f0800388340240a4c057ab200d#comment-6a00e551f0800388340240a4c057ab200d: 'Since the turn of the millennium there has been a fast developing historical literature on this. Khan (2004) on Mughals; Agoston (2005) on Ottomans; and Streusand (2011) on both + Safavids.... Gábor Ágoston (2005): Guns for the Sultan: Military Power and the Weapons Industry in the Ottoman Empire https://www.google.com/books/edition/Guns_for_the_Sultan/dNqzjfWABSAC... Kenneth Chase (2003): Firearms: A Global History to 1700 https://www.google.com/books/edition/Firearms/esnWJkYRCJ4C... Philip Hoffman (2015): Why Did Europe Conquer the World? https://www.google.com/books/edition/Why_Did_Europe_Conquer_the_World/jZD1oQEACAAJ... Douglas E. Streusand (2011): Islamic Gunpowder Empires: Ottomans, Safavids, and Mughals https://www.google.com/books/edition/Islamic_Gunpowder_Empires/ux-yDwAAQBAJ...
Voltaire: 'Take a view of the Royal Exchange https://www.bradford-delong.com/2019/10/the-works-of-voltaire-vol-xix-philosophical-letters-online-library-of-liberty.html#more in London, a place more venerable than many courts of justice, where the representatives of all nations meet for the benefit of mankind. There the Jew, the Mahometan, and the Christian transact business together, as though they were all of the same religion, and give the name of Infidels to none but bankrupts...
The East African Plains Ape:Gift-Exchange and Human Sociability: Paul Seabright: In the Company of Strangers; Joseph Henrich (2016): The Secret of Our Successes: How Culture is Driving Human Evolution, Domesticating Our Species, and Making us Smarter. Chapters 1-5. Gift exchange, trust, fictive kinship, and consensus. Personification, altruistic punishment, vulnerability to the grift.Market Economies and the Division of Labor: Avinash Dixit: Economics: A Very Short Introduction; Adam Smith (1776): An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations. Division of labor, money, credit, and trust.Anthology Intelligences: Speaking, listening, writing, and reading.The Broad Pre-Industrial Sweep:Herding and Agriculture: Jared Diamond (1997): The Worst Mistake in the History of the Human Race; Jared Diamond (1997): Guns, Germs and Steel, chapter 4 pp. 85-92. What caused the transition to farming and herding and what were its consequences?Basic Growth Theory: David Weil (2005): Economic Growth, chapters 1 and 2. Basic theoretical building blocks: The Solow growth model and the poverty trap model.Malthusian Logic: Why was economic growth not sustained for thousands of years after the Neolithic Revolution?Marriage Patterns and Macroparisites:Law-and-Order and Luxuries:Ancient High Civilization Rise and Decline: Maya: Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson (2012): Why Nations Fail, chapter 5 “Growth under Extractive Institutions” Section 4; Simon Martin and Nikolai Grube (2000): Chronicle of the Maya Kings and Queens: Deciphering the Dynasties of the Ancient Maya, Introduction pp. 6-23, Tikal pp. 24-53, Palenque pp. 154-175, Copan, pp. 190-213; David L. Webster (2002): The Fall of the Ancient Maya, chapters 7 and 10. Why was economic growth not sustained for thousands of years after the Neolithic Revolution?Ancient High Civilization Rise and Decline: Rome: Karl Polanyi: Aristotle Discovers the Economy; Moses Finley: The Ancient Economy; Aelius Aristides: The Roman Oration; Willem M. Jongman (2007): Gibbon was Right: The Decline and Fall of the Roman Economy https://delong.typepad.com/jongman-gibbon-was-right.pdf; Ian Morris (2004): Economic Growth in Ancient Greece; Peter Temin: The Roman Market Economy. Liberty and Incorporation of others into the polityPatriarchy and the Upper Class: Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson (2012): Why Nations Fail, chapter 5 “Growth under Extractive Institutions” sections 1-3; The Man Who Saw All Things (Gilgamesh). Thugs with spears, thugs with calendars, thugs with spreadsheetsThe Broad Sweep: Post-Malthusian:Beginnings of Modern Economic Growth: Western Europe: David Landes (2006): Why Europe and the West? Why Not China?; Joel Mokyr (1990): The Lever of Riches, chapter 5 “The Years of Miracles”. Why did sustained economic growth begin when it did? There are many theories about why the remarkable economic growth that has characterized the past 200 years began when and where it did.Beginnings of Modern Economic Growth: Britain: Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson (2012): Why Nations Fail, chapter 7 “The Turning Point”; Robert Allen: The British Industrial Revolution in Comparative Perspective. Why did sustained economic growth begin in England and not elsewhere? There are many theories about why the remarkable economic growth that has characterized the past 200 years began when and where it did.1870 as the Inflection Point.America Takes the Lead: Claudia Goldin and Lawrence Katz: The Race Between Education and Technology; David Donaldson and Richard Hornbeck: Railroads and American Economic Growth: A Market Access Approach. Why did the U.S. industrialize rapidly starting in the nineteenth century? Why did some parts of the U.S. industrialize earlier than others?American Slavery: Fred Bateman and Thomas Weiss (1981): A Deplorable Scarcity: The Failure of Industrialization in the Slave Economy. Why did some parts of the U.S. industrialize earlier than others? What role did slavery and its legacy play in U.S. economic growth?1850-1914 Globalization and Prosperity Advance: W. Arthur Lewis (1978): Evolution of the International Economic Order; Guillaume Daudin et al.: Globalization 1870-1914; Barry Eichengreen (2008): Globalizing Capital: A History of the International Monetary System; Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels (1848): The Communist Manifesto; Norman Angell (1909): Europe's Optical Illusion.1900-1935 Globalization and Prosperity Retreat: Vladimir Lenin (1902): What Is to Be Done?; John Maynard Keynes (1919): The Economic Consequences of the Peace; John Maynard Keynes (1924): The End of Laissez Faire; Karl Polanyi (1944): The Great Transformation; George Orwell (1936): The Road to Wigan Pier; Ernest Gellner (1973): Scale and Nation.The Absence of Convergence: J. Bradford DeLong (1986): Productivity Growth, Convergence, and Welfare; Lant Pritchett (1997): Divergence, Big Time.Growth Breakthroughs: Robert Allen: Global Economic History: A Very Short Introduction.Poverty Traps: Aart Kraay and David McKenzie (2014): Do Poverty Traps Exist? Assessing the Evidence.Geography: Jeffrey D. Sachs (2003): Institutions Don't Rule: Direct Effects of Geography on Per Capita Income; Jared Diamond (1997): Guns, Germs and Steel, chapter 4 pp. 85-92; Melissa Dell et al. (2009): Temperature and Income: Reconciling New Cross-Sectional and Panel EstimatesInstitutions: Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson, and James Robinson (2006): Institutions as a Fundamental Cause of Long-Run Growth.Culture: Nathan Nunn (2012): Culture and the Historical Process.Plutocracy: Industrial-Society Birth Pangs: Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels (1848): The Communist Manifesto; Karl Marx (1849): Wage-Labor and Capital.Plutocracy: Broad Patterns: Thomas Piketty: Capitalism in the Twenty-First CenturyPlutocracy: The Second Gilded Age: Paul Krugman (2014): Why We’re in a New Gilded AgePath Dependence in the Small and the Large: Paul David (1985): Clio and the Economics of QWERTY; Melissa Dell (2015): Path Dependence in Development: Evidence from the Mexican Revolution; Hoyt Bleakley and J. Lin (2012): Portage and Path Dependence. The Flap of the Butterfly Wing: Path dependence and economic development: Many of the studies considered thus far examine how major ways in which societies were organized historically can have important long-run consequences for economic growth. To what extent do smaller, typically inconsequential events have important long-run impacts? How much should our view of the world be one in which the influence of history can be very non-linear and highly persistent?A Tour of the Continents: Reversals of Fortune?, &c.:Daron Acemoglu et al., (2002): Reversal of Fortune: Geography And Institutions in the Making of the Modern World Income Distribution.Europe: Britain: The Lever of Riches, chapter 10 “The Industrial Revolution: Britain and Europe”.Europe: France: Daron Acemoglu et al. (2009): The Consequences of Radical Reform: The French Revolution.Europe: the Rest of the Continent: Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson (2006): Economic Backwardness in Political Perspective.The Americas: Bad Institutional Luck?: Melissa Dell (2010): The Persistent Effects of Peru's Mining Mita. Why is the U.S. much richer than Latin America? Why are some places in Latin America so much poorer than others? Does inequality play a role in explaining these income differences? What about other differences in historical institutions?The Americas: Bad Factor Endowment Luck?: Stanley Engerman and Kenneth Sokoloff (2002): Factor Endowments, Inequality, and Paths of Development Among New World Economics.The Americas: Toward a Synthesis: John Coatsworth (2008): Inequality, Institutions and Economic Growth in Latin America; John Coatsworth (2005): Structures, Endowments, and Institutions in the Economic History of Latin America.Africa: Slavery: Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson (2010): Why is Africa Poor?; Nathan Nunn: The Long Term Effects of Africa's Slave Trades; Nathan Nunn and Leonard Wantchekon (2011): The Slave Trade and the Origins of Mistrust in Africa.Africa: Geography: Nathan Nunn, and D. Puga (2012): Ruggedness: The blessing of bad geography in Africa.Africa: Colonialism: S. Michalopoulos and E. Papaioannou (2014): National Institutions and Subnational Development in Africa.Southeast Asia: Melissa Dell et al. (2015): State Capacity, Local Governance, and Economic Development in Vietnam; Anthony Reid (1993): Southeast Asia in the Age of Commerce, 1450-1680, chapter 1 “The Age of Commerce, 1400-1650”, chapter 4 “Problems of the Absolutist State”, chapter 5 “Origins of Southeast Asian Poverty”.The Middle East: Sevket Pamuk (2014): Institutional Change and Economic Development in the Middle East, 700-1800.Behind the Iron Curtain: Really Existing Socialism?: Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels (1848): The Communist Manifesto; Vladimir Lenin (1902): What Is to Be Done?; Rosa Luxemburg (1918): The Russian Revolution; Richard Ericson: The Classical Soviet-Type Economy: Nature of the System and Implications for ReformIs Russia a North Atlantic Economy?: Robert Allen (2011): The Rise and Decline of the Soviet Economy.After the Fall: Simeon Djankov (2015): Russia's Economy under Putin: From Crony Capitalism to State Capitalism.East Asian Micracles: Background and Foundations: Peter Evans (1995): Embedded Autonomy: States and Industrial Transformation, chapter 1; Dwight Perkins (2013): East Asian Development: Foundations and Strategies, chapter 3 “Government Interventions versus Laissez-Faire in Northeast Asia.Japan:Taiwan and Korea: Dani Rodrik: Getting Interventions Right: How South Korea and Taiwan Grew RichThe Central Country: Yingyi Qian; Xiaodong Zhu (2012): Understanding China’s Growth: Past, Present and Future.The Past and Future of Manufacturing Export-Led Growth:Scattered Issues: Growth and Fluctuations:The Great Depression and World War II: John Maynard Keynes (1926): The Economic Consequences of Mr. Churchill; Christina D. Romer (2013): Lessons from the Great Depression for Policy Today; John Maynard Keynes (1931): Unemployment as a World Problem; Taylor Jaworski and Price Fishback (2014): World War IIThe Asian Crisis of 1998 and the Great Recession of 2009: Andrew Berg: The Asian Crisis; Philip Lane: The European Sovereign Debt Crisis; Lawrence Summers: Reflections on the ‘New Secular Stagnation HypothesisGlobal Warming: Melissa Dell et al. (2012): Temperature Shocks and Economic Growth: Evidence from the Last Half Century. How is global warming impacting economic growth?Global Warming and Global Poverty: Melissa Dell et al. (2014): What Do We Learn from the Weather? The New Climate-Economy, sections 1 and 3. Does it differentially impact poorer countries? Will it increase conflict?Trade and Development:Value Chains and Development: D. Atkin (2014): Endogenous Skill Acquisition and Export Manufacturing in MexicoInvestment and Development: H.W. Singer (1950): The Distribution of Gains Between Investing and Borrowing Countries.Trade and Geopolitics: D. Berger era al. (2013): Commercial Imperialism? Political Influence and Trade During the Cold War.Soft-Power Pressure, Neo-Imperialism, and Growth: Melissa Dell and Pablo Querubin (2016): Nation Building in Vietnam; C. Appy (2015: The Vietnam War and Our National Identity; A. Dube et al. (2011): Coups, Corporations, and Classified Information. What are the impacts of foreign military intervention on governance, civic society, and economic development? Can a state be built in a weakly institutionalized society through military intervention, or is such an approach likely to backfire? How does politics in the intervening country impact how foreign interventions are conducted? We examine these questions in the context of one of the largest foreign nation-building interventions of the past century: the Vietnam War.Foreign Aid: Nathan Nunn and Nancy Qian (2014): U.S. Food Aid and Civil Conflict; Alberto Alesina and David Dollar (2000): Who Gives Foreign Aid to Whom and Why? Can foreign aid be an effective means of promoting economic growth? This lecture will consider a range of evidence, from the Marshall Plan and economic aid to East Asia in the 1950s to food aid today.Technical Assistance: J.A. Yage (1988): Transforming Agriculture in Taiwan: The Experience of the Joint Commission on Rural Reconstruction, chapter 1.Mafiyas: Charles Tilly (1974): Forward to A. Blok: The Mafia of a Sicilian Village, 1860-1960: A Study of Violent Peasant Entrepreneurs; Melissa Dell (2015): Trafficking Networks and the Mexican Drug War; D. Gambetta (1996): The Sicilian Mafia: The Business Of Private Protection, chapter 1.What We Know**:The Pace of Economic Growth:The Meaning and Measurement of Economic Growth:The Twentieth Century: Andrea Boltho and Gianni Toniolo: The Assessment: The Twentieth Century.The Near-Term Future of Economic Growth: The North Atlantic: Robert Gordon: The Turtle’s ProgressThe Near-Term Future of Economic Growth: The World: Dani Rodrik (2013): The Past, Present and Future of Economic Growth.The Near-Term Future of Economic Growth: Economic SuperPower SuccessionThe Singularity?80 Minute Lecture Skeleton:Warm-Up (10 minutes):1 qualitative review question1 BIG IDEA question1 calculation question2 minutes: what did we learn last time?5 minute discussion3 Core Modules:(17 minutes): Lecture/Document/Tools/Tools Application/Open-Ended Question Discussion(3 minutes): Structured Review Questions(3 minutes): Pick 2 or 3 from 5 questions: calculation, main point takeaway, why aren't answers 25-25-25-25?, why this is important, what didn't I say?Afterwards:1 free-form lecture response question (response emailed)In-class exercises: 1/3 of a point for answering more than 2/3 of iClicker questions; 1/3 of a point for getting at least 1/3 of iClicker questions right; 1/3 of a point for post-lecture response...Preliminaries:Liberal artsBerkeley is a universityUC Berkeley: public investmentEconomic historyThinking like a historianThinking like an economistWhere are you students coming from?----Peter J. Klenow and Andres Rodriguez-Clare (1997): The Neoclassical Revival in Growth Economics: Has It Gone too Far? https://delong.typepad.com/klenow-rodriguez-clare.pdf: "We find a very modest role for growth in human capital per worker in explaining growth.... We find that TFP growth accounts for most of the growth of output per worker in Hong Kong, South Korea, and Taiwan. And we stress that this relative importance of TFP growth for three of the four Asian tigers generalizes to our sample of 98 countries: we find that roughly 90% of country differences in Y/L growth are attributable to differences in A growth. Combining these growth results with our findings on levels, we call for returning productivity differences to the center of theorizing about international differences in output per worker...
#notebookecon135
https://canvas.harvard.edu/courses/8254/assignments/syllabus
Doug Jones: Copernicus Versus the Scientific Method https://logarithmichistory.wordpress.com/2019/11/02/copernicus-versus-the-scientific-method-5/: 'Ptolemy needed to assume that the five planets (not counting the sun and moon) have both cycles (the big circles) and epicycles (the little circles).... Some of the cycles and epicycles vary independently, while others are exactly tied to the motions of the sun. For Mercury and Venus, the epicycles vary independently, taking different periods of time (88 days, 225 days) to complete a circuit. Their cycles, by contrast, take exactly one Earth year to complete a circuit. Furthermore, the deferent, the point at center of each epicycle, is always exactly in line with the sun. For Mars, Jupiter and Saturn on the other hand, it’s the other way around. The cycles vary independently (1.88, 11.86, and 29.46 years to make a complete circuit). But the epicycles take exactly one Earth year... [and] the line from deferent to planet is exactly parallel to the line from Earth to Sun.... Copernicus’s model, by contrast, doesn’t just replace five circles (the cycles for Mercury and Venus, and the epicycles for Mars, Jupiter and Saturn) with one (for the Earth going around the Sun). It also automatically explains why the five superfluous cycles show an otherwise unexplained synchronic parallelism. People who read Copernicus 1543 book carefully (not many at first) could see he had a real explanation for something that’s just a mysterious coincidence in Ptolemy.... Solomonoff induction... can explain why Copernicanism is a better theory.... Bayes’ Rule.... And where do scientists get their prior probabilities?... Solomonoff... He argues that we can use the theory of algorithmic complexity, as developed by Kolmogorov.... If your theory were turned into a computer program, how long would the program be? The longer the program, the lower the prior probability, where probabilities fall off exponentially with length of program...
Phoebe Weston: Ancestral Home of All Human Beings Discovered https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/homo-sapiens-origin-humans-botswana-zambezi-river-a9174396.html: 'Vast wetland south of Zambezi river was cradle of all mankind and sustained our ancestors for 70,000 years: Scientists have pinpointed a fertile river valley in northern Botswana as the ancestral home of all human beings: The earliest anatomically modern humans (Homo sapiens) arose 200,000 years ago in a vast wetland south of the Zambezi river which was the cradle of all mankind, a new study has revealed. This lush region–which also covered parts of Namibia and Zimbabwe – was home to an enormous lake which sustained our ancestors for 70,000 years, according to the paper published in the journal Nature. Between 110,000 and 130,000 years ago, the climate started to change and fertile corridors opened up out of this valley. For the first time, the population began to disperse–paving the way for modern humans to migrate out of Africa, and ultimately, across the world...
How Deep Are the Roots of Current Economic Development? https://growthecon.com/blog/topic-deep/
- Colonial Origins of Comparative Development https://economics.mit.edu/files/4123
- Deep Roots of Development: Part I https://growthecon.com/blog/Deep-Roots-1/
- Do "Institutions" Cause Growth? https://ideas.repec.org/a/kap/jecgro/v9y2004i3p271-303.html
PWT 9.1 https://www.rug.nl/ggdc/productivity/pwt/
Stephen Chew: How to Study https://www.samford.edu/departments/academic-success-center/how-to-study
Branko Milanovic, Peter H. Lindert and Jeffrey G. Williamson: Pre-Industrial Inequality https://delong.typepad.com/pre-industrial-inequality.pdf
Alwyn Young (1994): The Tyranny of Numbers: Confronting the Statistical Realities of the East Asian Growth Experience https://www.nber.org/papers/w4680: 'The fundamental role played by factor accumulation in explaining the extraordinary postwar growth of Hong Kong, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan.... While the growth of output per capita in these economies has averaged 6% to 7% per annum over the past two and a half decades, the growth of output per effective worker in the non-agricultural sector of these economies has been only 3% to 4% per annum.... Total factor productivity growth rates... are well within the bounds of those experienced by the OECD and Latin American economies over equally long periods of time. While the growth of output and manufacturing exports in the newly industrializing economies of East Asia is virtually unprecedented, the growth of total factor productivity in these economies is not...
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