Readings:
J. Bradford DeLong and Andrei Shleifer (1993): Princes and Merchants: European City Growth Before the Industrial Revolution http://www.jstor.org/stable/725804
Jeremiah E. Dittmar (2011): Information Technology and Economic Change: The Impact of the Printing Press http://qje.oxfordjournals.org/content/126/3/1133.abstract
Nico Voigtländer and Hans-Joachim Voth (2013): The Three Horsemen of Riches: Plague, War, and Urbanization in Early Modern Europe http://restud.oxfordjournals.org/content/80/2/774.full.pdf
Stephen Broadberry (2013): Accounting for the Great Divergence http://www.lse.ac.uk/economicHistory/workingPapers/2013/WP184.pdf
Daron Acemoglu, Simon Johnson, and James Robinson (2005): The Rise of Europe: Atlantic Trade, Institutional Change, and Economic Growth http://www.jstor.org/stable/4132729
https://www.icloud.com/keynote/0Mr0-Gh0dWNCKh8iwG9jcrCnA
Memo Question: Between the discovery of agriculture and the year 1500 or so, in the large we see an economic world in which (a) total factor productivity growth was very, very slow, and (b) as a result the overwhelming effect of technological progress was not to raise standards of living above "bare subsistence" but rather to increase human numbers.
These readings are all pieces arguing that, in western Europe at least, this Malthusian ice age was beginning to thaw starting around 1500 or so: things were happening to raise the rate of total factor productivity growth—and population growth was no longer able to soak all of the effects of technological progress up. Pick one paper. Do you think it makes a convincing case? How much of a difference in global economic trends do you think that paper's factors by themselves could have made?
Warm-Up:
- Looking Back (5 min): Main lessons from last time
- Today (5 min): Interesting points from reaction essays
Core:
- (10 min) Overview
- (5 min) Issues and questions
- (15 min) DeLong and Shleifer:
- Why is this paper being written?
- What are the main arguments?
- What are the major pieces of evidence?
- Why won't those who think differently be convinced?
- Who is right?
- (15 min) Dittmar:
- Why is this paper being written?
- What are the main arguments?
- What are the major pieces of evidence?
- Why won't those who think differently be convinced?
- Who is right?
- (15 min) Voigtländer and Voth:
- Why is this paper being written?
- What are the main arguments?
- What are the major pieces of evidence?
- Why won't those who think differently be convinced?
- Who is right?
- (15 min) Broadberry:
- Why is this paper being written?
- What are the main arguments?
- What are the major pieces of evidence?
- Why won't those who think differently be convinced?
- Who is right?
- (15 min) Acemoglu et al.:
- Why is this paper being written?
- What are the main arguments?
- What are the major pieces of evidence?
- Why won't those who think differently be convinced?
- Who is right?
Cool-Down:
- Looking Forward (5 min): Next time
- Looking Forward (5 min): Next reaction question